The Israel Bahrain and UAE deal has been hailed as a “new dawn of peace” in the Middle East which, according to Trump, will change the course of history. The portentously named Abraham Accords has met a mixed reception though with less raucous laughter than Jared Kushner’s first effort. Trump, Netanyahu, Kushner and Tony Blair are being credited though it was the United Arab Emirates who first suggested the deal to forestall Israel annexing chunks of the West Bank. Critics say it will mainly serve the three signatories, plus the US, and offers nothing to end tensions between Israel and Palestine.
Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have never been in conflict, have had back channel political and commercial connections for years, so it changes little but it will pave the way for the UAE to buy advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets from the US. Netanyahu was keen because he wanted a distraction from his bungling of the pandemic and the corruption charges against him.
Apart from the leaders’ personal ulterior motives there is a united front against the threat of Iran and while being accused of throwing the Palestinians under the bus, they point to their “feckless and corrupt leadership that has served its people poorly.” Some said it should be co-branded the anti-Iran Axis, since it resembled an arms deal as much as a peace deal and the risk is that it will intensify ongoing arms races in the region.
The next hurdle would be to get Saudi Arabia to join the accord which could be trickier. They are apparently well on the road to achieving their own nuclear ambitions.
Israel does not look peaceful ahead, indeed is moving into an exceptionally fraught, explosive and fast-changing few years with tr Uranus square tr Saturn in 2021 shaking up the Israel 10th house Pluto, undermining or at least substantially challenging its sense of control.
Tr Pluto will oppose the Midheaven in 2021/22 which will be exceptionally pressured in terms of direction with significant internal domestic resentment thereafter for many years. The Israel MC is conjunct the Fixed Star Procyon of sudden rise-and-fall. Then 2022 will be downbeat, littered with setbacks, as tr Saturn moves to square the Israel Taurus Sun and oppose the Mars in Leo through till 2025. Along the way tr Neptune squaring the adventurous Uranus opposition Jupiter between 2022 and 2024 will damp enthusiasm; and there follows a dead-halt, high-risk Solar Arc Mars square Pluto in 2025 with another two high-stress Solar Arc towards 2028/29. Part of that may be economic with tr Uranus moving through the 8th house of business/international finances from 2023 to 2030 which will be financially unstable.
The Israel/Saudi Arabia relationship isn’t exactly shouting out friendliness and co-operation in the next four years. There’s an undermining and disappointing tr Neptune opposition the composite Uranus and conjunct the composite Sun in 2021/22; followed by a jolting, co-operation-upsetting, insecure and bad-tempered tr Uranus opposition Mars and square Neptune in 2023/24.
Whatever this Accord does it hardly looks like ushering in a shining new era of tranquillity ahead.