Ukraine stuck in the middle of an old feud

Hope springs eternal as wars break out with a general expectation that the mayhem and carnage will all blow over quickly as one side faces facts and withdraws. In reality, conflicts usually drag on into a prolonged state of “violent stalemate”.

  The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and freedom.

“The goal of western capitals – is – to ensure that armed aggression ends in failure, without precipitating a wider war.” (William Hague) 

Russia is trying to restore old glories and fighting against an old Cold War enemy (the USA) whom they perceive as encroaching on their borders. Given the mindset of those close to Putin (see Patrushev below) it seems unlikely that Russia will admit defeat and meekly go home to nurse their humiliation.

  The relationship charts between Ukraine and Russia 1990 point to more obvious disturbance late this April to mid June with a long drawn out struggle till late 2023. The Ukraine/Russia 1917 chart describes jolts late April and major upheavals in relations in 2023/24.

  The USA relationship charts with Russia are most fraught in the time ahead, more so than the EU or UK. The USA/Russia 1917 relationship chart is trapped, high-risk, acutely frustrated and angry through 2022/23. The USA/Russia 1990 relationship chart is nerve-stretched this year with shocks and over-reaction from late April, repeating in January 2023.

 The man closest to Putin now and over the past two decades, head of Russia’s security council and the FSB,  a “hawk’s hawk”, Nikolai Patrushev, a career intelligence officer, has known Putin since the 1970s, when the two men worked together in the Leningrad KGB. He believes that western powers are seeking to destroy Russia and has called Ukraine a “protectorate” of the west. He has warned that Russia would hold the U.S. accountable for all its troubles. For him the main adversary of his formative career never went away.

  He sees the FSB security officers as “the new nobility” tasked with governing Russia in the spirit of self-sacrifice and for the sake of the country’s greater glory. He has stressed that Russia is the main antagonist to the Western liberal world order and warned that Russia would leave nothing off the table when pushing for its geopolitical interests abroad. Analysts believe that the culmination of his decades-long agitation against the Western world is Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Recently he has ramped up his anti-American conspiracy theories to provide justification, asserting that the U.S. was conducting covert biowarfare against the citizens of the former Soviet republics. He blamed the pandemic on Western laboratories, some of which operated in Ukraine, and said their work had to be stopped no matter what the cost. He also appears to regard renewable energy policies as an attack on Russia’s oil and gas.

  Russia’s foreign intelligence chief Naryshkin in early March just after the invasion began echoed his sentiments saying, “The West does not only want to encircle Russia with a new Iron Curtain but to destroy it completely.” This has evidently become the core belief among Putin’s KGB cohort in the Kremlin. They believe they are fighting for their survival. Against that level of paranoia there doesn’t seem much room for negotiation and compromise.

 Patrushev, 11 July 1951, St Petersburg, is a confident, ego-centric and rebellious Sun Uranus in Cancer on the point of a resourceful Jupiter in Aries opposition Neptune – super-confident, not always realistic. His Uranus is also in a volatile conjunction to Mars so he dislikes interference.  His Pluto is trine Jupiter adding to his luck and self-assurance.

  His Mars is conjunct the Russia 1917 10th house controlling Pluto so he will connect in a ruthless way with the ruling elite; and his Pluto squares the Russia 1917 Sun opposition Uranus conjunct Saturn, which all adds up to an urge to drive Russia’s revolutionary spirit onwards with his hand on the tiller.

  His Pluto sits on the Ascendant of the Russia 1990 chart as he attempts to shape its image for the world at large with his Sun conjunct the country’s Jupiter boosting morale. A dictatorial cheer leader. On both relationship charts with Russia he looks to be driving momentum forward in 2023/24, upping the emotional temperature and radically changing his role vis a vis the country’s direction – though with trickster Uranus being involved there’s no way of tell whether that will be elevation or ultimate calamity for him.

  On his own chart there will be a significant shift from late this April for three weeks; disasters late May to mid June, repeating on and off till April 2023. Later this year August to November he has a curious mix of high-risk/aggravation mixed with good luck/relief. From early 2023 to late 2024 he also picks up more upbeat influences though also a Uranus Pluto midpoint hinting at the collapse of an old order. There’s also a high degree of uncertainty in 2023/24. So not undiluted catastrophe though it’ll be a rocky road.

26 thoughts on “Ukraine stuck in the middle of an old feud

  1. I occasionally leave posts up for a while that appear to be punting conspiracy theories – since even the deeply paranoid can sometimes be right or at least there can be a kernel of truth in wild smears. I am a great believer in staying well informed – even if it means facing unpalatable truths.
    There was indeed a Guardian piece on Zelensky’s finances last year, not that it’s an excuse for the invasion but useful to keep in mind.

    Since I sliced out comments, more helpful ones that were replies disappeared as well, so here’s a copy.
    On Russian rumours of US funded biolabs in Ukraine:
    From Solaia: @Aline, do you know what an organism causing a disease such as AIDS is called, and where it would be studied? Wild guess? Yes, an organism causing disease, such as AIDS is a pathogen, and they are, yes, you guessed, studied in biolabs. All developed Nations have biolabs, and they are often funded by international investors. So nothing sinister about biolabs. ♀️ And no, I’m not a biologist myself, but my boss happens to have a PhD in Molecular Biology. He also has worked at several biolabs in two Continents. One was straight across the street fron where I used to live. He can’t stop laughing at this story, BTW.
    @Aline, now think what would happen if Russia bombed a biolab where they were currently studying a possible superflu, given their amazing precision in hitting targets and general opsec… Unless you want to relive Stephen King’s “The Stand”, this probably isn’t the scenario you are really wishing for.

    Marjorie: Even if there were a Porton Down type lab in Ukraine (UK Defence Science Laboratory) I’d have thought it was excusable given the Russian propensity for throwing nerve agents around indiscriminately and despite signing treaties banning them, the Russians have been developing bioweapons. Porton Down was brought in for the Skripal poisoning in Salisbury and the UK is certainly not in the business of launching a bioweapon attack on anyone. In order to protect you need to know what you’re handling. But I would have thought in this instance it, as you say, is more likely to be non-bioweapon disease pathogens.
    In fact, U.S. assistance to Ukrainian biological labs has been targeted at strengthening public health measures. Both the U.S. and Ukraine have also signed a treaty vowing never to produce or use biological weapons.

    The one mindset I never understand is the one which says – since the US have acted inexcusably and destructively on various occasions that somehow this makes Putin a nice person worthy of our support. ???

    • Guardian:
      ‘Facebook failed to label 80% of articles on its platform promoting a fast-spreading conspiracy theory that the US is funding the use of bioweapons in Ukraine, according to a study released Friday by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH).
      he bioweapons theory began to spread in the early days of the war on Ukraine, amongst fringe QAnon accounts, ultimately making its way to larger platforms such as Fox News. The White House has condemned the myth, saying it may have been manufactured by Moscow to justify a possible use of chemical weapons against Ukraine.
      But it continues to spread across social media, including Facebook.
      While some experts have conceded Facebook is now stepping up to more thoroughly crack down on state propaganda, others say disinformation will continue to spread on social media as long as it is baked into the views-driven business model.

      “At the end of the day, the algorithm will always prioritize misinformation because it is contentious, and Facebook makes more money when we are arguing with one another,” Ahmed said. “To reduce disinformation spread, we have to cut it off at the source.”

  2. Thank you Marjorie for your patience. Just so you know, this is not the only astrology site where people have had to be removed for inappropriate comments and attacks on other users. Many seem inflamed at the moment, perhaps because of the current levels of fear in the world.

  3. Thank you Marjorie for deleting the threads with Aline
    I m sorry I couldn’t let it go, I was getting tired of these Kremlin talking points and just couldn’t let it pass. There is enough Kremlin disinfo everywhere and I come across it everyday where I live in Estonia as I work with Russian speaking Estonians and lived in Russia and have many Russian contacts and tonight I just lost it

    You don’t have to post this, this is just a message for you

    Thanks again for all your work and for this wonderful forum

    I really hope Saturn teaches the Russian invading forces a lesson next week

    • @Sterling, I feel you! We have been receiving a lot of this since 2013-2014 in Finland too. And not just through Russian “news” outlets, a lot of it has been online on innocent looking message boards. Astrology boards too have been targeted at least since that time. I have, also, in the past thought Internet Research Agency is behind this. I have been reluctant to say it out loud, because it seems crazy IRA would bother with quite marginal boards. But the speed on which some of the anti-vaxx influencers have turned into Putin apologists has been stunning and made me think that astrology boards probably were targeted too, based on assumed psychological profiles of readers. The fact that certain kind of messaging, that all but disappeared in past couple of years, resumed after Russia’s attack to Ukraine.

      • I don’t know if this is the space to talk about it as this is an astrology forum but while we’re at it (and it might be informative for other readers), just wanted to say we’re also facing something here that you might not be facing in Finland because you have fewer Russian speakers but there is this narrative that the Estonian government doesn’t allow Russian speaking Estonians to use their language and that Russian speaking Estonians are not allowed to vote. First of all there are 100pc Russian schools in Estonia and I work in a 90pc Russian speaking environment and none of my colleagues face any discriminiation and all vote of course and Russian is even used on government websites and all government communications so this is quite a remarkable statement to be making, but whoever is behind this misiniformation is sowing doubts across the world, to wit Greek right commentator claiming Russian speaking Estonians are discriminated against

        This is in part how the Kremlin justified its invasion of Ukraine, to “protect Russian speakers from discrimination”

        It doesn’t bode well for us here in Estonia

  4. I was thinking that Mars meeting Saturn would give us something close to what is happening now: Brute force meeting limitations and “reality”. I had been thinking for a few weeks now that around this time Russia would either face up to reality and accept the limitations it is facing (Saturn a limitator) or that it would refocus its energy but that in any event Saturn would slow Mars down or force it to engage differently

    Let’s see how it unfolds in the next few days and when the exact conjunction happens

  5. @Aline, now think what would happen if Russia bombed a biolab where they were currently studying a possible superflu, given their amazing precision in hitting targets and general opsec… Unless you want to relive Stephen King’s “The Stand”, this probably isn’t the scenario you are really wishing for.

  6. @Aline, do you know what an organism causing a disease such as AIDS is called, and where it would be studied? Wild guess? Yes, an organism causing disease, such as AIDS is a pathogen, and they are, yes, you guessed, studied in biolabs. All developed Nations have biolabs, and they are often funded by international investors. So nothing sinister about biolabs. ‍♀️

    And no, I’m not a biologist myself, but my boss happens to have a PhD in Molecular Biology. He also has worked at several biolabs in two Continents. One was straight across the street fron where I used to live. He can’t stop laughing at this story, BTW.

  7. “Aline”? Your claims come from a bunch of Facebook posts that have been debunked.
    Go and do your homework. I suggest you start by reading all the following:

    Department of State, Aug. 29, 2005, Agreement Between the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA and UKRAINE
    Interfax-Ukraine, May 8, 2020, SBU: No US biological laboratories in Ukraine
    U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, April 22, 2020, U.S.-Ukraine Partnership to Reduce Biological Threats
    Coda, April 19, 2018, Does the US Have A Secret Germ Warfare Lab on Russia’s Doorstep?
    The Daily Beast, April 9, 2021, Russia, China Team Up to Peddle Insane U.S. COVID Lab Theory
    National Intelligence Council, Aug. 2021, Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
    PolitiFact, Feb. 25, There are no US-run biolabs in Ukraine, contrary to social media posts

    • The New York Post is an extremely unreliable right-wing rag that no one gives any credence of reliability, genuine fish-rap — and I say this as a journalist. Right-wingers like Giuliani plant whatever outrageous unconfirmed lies there without impunity.

  8. Who is to hold America accountable for their war crimes, crimes against humanity and providing weapons for proxies to enable them too carry out such acts ,that have happened and continue to do so.

    • Whattabout and blah blah blah… US Military Court Marshal system is far from perfect, yet 115 US Military personnel have been convicted on war crimes in Afganistan and Iraqi Wars alone.

      Now, go and read reports on how many Russian officers have been punished for war crimes in Chechen Wars and Crimea Annexation in 2014, not to talk about Syria. You will find it’s a short list.

      And BTW, this is an issue for Russians themselves, their Military culture based on corruption and devovshchina does not exactly encourage anyone with means and in their right mind to join. To become merely a “contract” soldiers, boys have to go through of 6 months of hazing that’s often comparable to physical torture. So, it’s obvious anyone who has two rubles and/or two braincells tries to avoid Army in Russia.

  9. Putin must have seen this war as an ideal convergence of both his dream of restoring the greater Russia (primarily Belarus and Ukraine, whose conquest he referred to in crude macho terms) and being able to claim a ‘win’ over the US. Which is why Biden is wise in refusing to be provoked into providing Russia an excuse for a war between the two countries, even though it unfortunately means Ukraine is paying an even greater price, and painful and frustrating for the rest of us to see Putin kill with impunity. Observers have noted that in Putin’s mind, winning over a country that it doesn’t even consider a country (hence in part the ‘special operation’) doesn’t mean as much as winning against the West, esp the US. Instead, he is now facing the worst scenario he could have hoped for, losing against Ukraine without being able to draw the US directly into the war. I can only hope Ukraine is able to hang on by obtaining as much aid as it can; and that Putin cares enough about personal self-survival that he will find a way to save face and stop this war.

  10. Thank you Marjorie.
    “Russia is trying to restore old glories and fighting against an old Cold War enemy (the USA) whom they perceive as encroaching on their borders.”

    I notice that in early April there’s a Mars-Saturn conjunction at 22 Aquarius. Around this degree area seems significant for Russia’s perceived “old glories”, and much else.
    The abdication of the Russian Czar on 17th March 1917 had Uranus at 21 Aquarius, plus many other turbulent events of that era also had Uranus at 21 Aquarius.
    Way further back, the Unification of Russia in September 862 had Neptune at 21 Aquarius.

    Ukraine had Uranus at 22 Aquarius when it proclaimed (short lived) independence on 22 January 1918. In August 1991, the Moon was 22 Aquarius when Ukraine again proclaimed independence.
    Depending which chart you prefer for the USA, it’s Moon in Aquarius is 23 degrees.
    Other possibly relevant national charts where this Aquarius degree appears include Lithuania 1991 Sun, and Hungary 1918 (23 Uranus), Hungary 1989 (NN 23).
    So we are certainly seeing some echoes of the past, perhaps linked to Saturn’s fondness for history, time, and some kind of karma.
    A very faint bright spot for me would be the abdication of the Czar in 1917, and equally faint hopes of some kind of positive regime change now……

  11. It only requires a (mis)guided missile to land in Poland for it to be ‘game on’ for NATO: the one thing that Biden is desperately trying to avoid. The role of the Oligarchs should also not be underestimated (IMO).
    From what I hear, Putin is already in his bunker and receives no one in person, communicating only via screens. He trusts no one. If he wasn’t mad before, he will be by now. If you want to keep the world out of your backyard then you must not use anything nuclear. Similarly chemical weapons could end up poisoning your allies if the wind changes. The Russian army seems to be far from professional and will run out of conscripts at the present rate of attrition. Uranus moves in mysterious ways. The war could turn out to be intractable but it could also end unexpectedly. Keeping the peace however could also be a fraught undertaking.

    • “The role of the Oligarchs should also not be underestimated (IMO).”

      As stated before, current class of oligarchs are, I’m afraid, just business managers for Putin and his “siloviks”, strongmen mostly with KGB past. They are not independent operators, as in Yeltsin’s times, after ex-KGB operators, most famously Patrushev mentioned here, basically deposed Mihkail Khodorkovsky (spent 10 years in jail) and Boris Berezovsky (died under dubious circumstances in the UK) in early 2000’s. Oleg Deripaska and Roman Abramovich are basically the only “survivors”, Deripaska has some access to Lavrov in Kremlin, but then again Lavrov always been “the outside” face of Kremlin, out there to charm foreign dignitaries and not so much an insider, and has wanted to retire for a while

      Most experts agree that if Putin is deposed, it will either be result of FSB and/or Rosgvardia uprising. For this, I think Russian lower middle class has to suffer enough to rebel, which is why I was for extensive and consistant sanctions after Crimea annexation in 2014. I saw first hand how the flow of Saint Petersbourgh inhabitants looking for goods not subjected to ridiculous import taxes that were always imposed in Putin’s Russia even before that (iPhones, French cosmetics, Italian bags, everything in that cathegory had easily 20-30 per cent markup compare to Nordic, not exactly cheap, prices, and could also be sold tax free, another 24 per cent drop) stopped at stores I worked at and those close by. I had hopes that if we kept those up, the regime would collapse by 2016-17. Unfortunately, those didn’t hold up. But now, I think that even with some kind of a peace signed, the sanctions should stay until war criminals are brought to justice.

      I’m not hopeful anymore, I really think Russia needs to go down that chaotic path to renew. But I also think many regimes they’ve supported will go down before, I even have more hope for Belarus.

      • Hi Solaia, I don’t think Russia will renew itself at all. With Putin gone another autocrat will emerge. Question is whether he is someone the rest of the world can deal with or not. I do think the oligarchs will be instrumental in P’s downfall. They may be his money managers but their existence is now also threatened. Pity Marjorie can’t do chart of Abramovich given his litigousness, because I think he may be the lynchpin. But as I say, IMO! My sources are not yours and my information is also not 100% but I am often surprised by how close it turns out to be.

        • @Susan, well, there’s always a distant chance one or more oligarchs will go completely “rogue” and do something unexpected. But should be covered operation, since “bourgeois” hasn’t had any political power in Russian sphere since the 15th century, and Putin’s regime has spent 20 years further diminishing oligarchs in the eyes of public. It has not been just propaganda, but it’s been perfectly fine to satirize the rich in a way political leadership hasn’t been since the early 2000’s. In fact, Navalnyi is currently in prison for telling Putin is one of them and not the humble servant of the people he wants to be portrayed as.

          And yes, the likeliest scenario for any kind of “regime change” authoritarianism continuing, because the change is most likely FSB driven. They must have a “contingency plan” already in case something happens to Putin. This would, by an age old Russian/Soviet tradition involve princes ready to take the place of “infallible” tsar.

  12. Seems like things are developing fast right now, and there might be at least some sort of a “forced’ ceasefire soon given Russia is running out of equipment, manpower, and money on short term. Not that there will be much clarity for a while, and I think astrology pointing to some sort of culmination in late 2023 makes sense from crisis resolution point of view.

    The general feeling I have is that Kremlin will be in turmoil not seen since early 2000’s. The word on Russian Telegram accounts is, apparently, that there are two fractions inside Kremlin – others hawkish and others more open to peace negotiations. Interestingly, Shoigu is indicated as the leader of those wanting a peaceful exit, while no word on who would still be for continuing the war. My idea is that despite being very hawkish (and even somewhat delusional) on West, it might not be Patrushev. I could be wrong, though. In ay case, my feeling is he has grown sour with Putin, who is looking like a scared old man he is. After all, Patrushev created Putin, even arranging Moscow theater hostage crisis to boost Putin’s popularity. But he too might realize how weak his “chosen one” appears these days, and start plotting for replacement.

    In addition, one tidbit I picked today is that there are talks about a gasline through Israel AND Turkey to Europe. Syria, of course, could be avoided by make the pipe run underwater. This could be significant in Abramovich saga.

    • @Solaia, have you heard any rumblings about Putin being a creation also of the CIA? That he was, early in his career, a CIA “asset”? I’ve heard stories about that emerging from people with intelligence connections.

      • @Nicole Sours Larson, no, I don’t recall reading anything like this anywhere. When, “early in his career”, would this had been? I suppose he might have had CIA contacts during his KGB years in Dresden, when it seemed he was some sort of a “rubber stamp” for smuggling high tech with export restrictions from the West to Soviet Union. But in that case, he would have severed those ties by 1996, given he scrubbed his KGB history away in early years of his ascendant.

        Another window of opportunity would have been when he got introduced to Yeltsin’s family – apparently by Anatoly Chubais and Yeltsin’s to be son-in-law Valentin Yumashev. But in that case, I doubt Chubais or Yumashev were alive, as they very much are, today.

        But, generally speaking, I don’t see him having been an asset, also given his late KGB career coincided with purges of CIA infiltrators caused by Aldrich Aimes circa 1985. He might have been a snitch, though. Apparently, his Dresden colleagues called him “Poisonous Drawf”, playing office politics more than working.

        • @Solaia — Fascinating. Just checked in with my “source,” who tells me he heard those stories in the around Washington in the “90s. Of course, that may well have been disinformation, or plants by opponents eager to derail his rise to power. But those rumours persisted around Washington.

          • @Nicole Sours Larson, I think CIA definitely had people in Yeltsin’s administration. They still might have had someone in at least 2 weeks ago, because the intel the US and UK had on Putin’s intentions was spot on.

            But in case Putin was recruited back in the day, he must have never been really committed.

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: