The Ukraine invasion has reached a critical stage with early euphoria about shambolic Russia forces being in retreat and defeated is starting to evaporate. Russian reinforcements in the eastern segment of Donbas are capturing towns and causing heavy Ukrainian casualties. Joe Biden is dragging his feet about sending heavier weaponry for fear of it being used to attack Russian territory and trigger an international war. The EU are also watering down their sanctions to placate the pro-Putin Hungarian leader; and the lacklustre German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz is reneging on his earlier promises of supplying tanks and guns.
The Ukraine 24 August 1991 2.31 pm Kiev chart, always did indicate a panicky slide from mid May with tr Neptune opposing the Ukraine Mars till mid October this year, returning next spring, autumn and in January 2024. Tr Uranus is opposing the 10th house Ukraine Pluto from mid this June for a few weeks, returning in 2023 which will be disruptive and points to a change of direction. The November 2022 Lunar Eclipse at 16 Scorpio may also be critical since it will conjunct the Ukraine Pluto and indicates a crucial turning point in the months following.
There’s nothing cheering in the Ukraine/Russia 1917 and 1991 relationship charts – which start off from a position of extreme hostility anyway; and that is being stoked up through 2023 to 2025. Nothing that suggests an early truce though admittedly toxic feelings would remain no matter when it finished.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s own chart, 25 January 1978, hints at a worsening situation with a trapped, scary, infuriated tr Pluto opposition his Mars from March 2023 till late 2024 – and even after. His Uranus in Scorpio is catching not only the tr Uranus opposition this year but also the Eclipses, in particular the November Lunar Eclipse.
The Invasion started on 23 February 2022 which has a Mars Pluto conjunction in Capricorn which suggests relentless brutality and wasn’t ever going to be a quick n’ easy event.
Putin’s 4th Term chart, 7 May 2018 11.05 am Moscow, also has a ruthless Pluto Mars in Capricorn which will close to exact by Solar Arc in 2023 which is when tr Pluto squares the Uranus – often a fall-off-perch point for an administration. The Pluto Uranus runs from early February 2023 till late 2024. But best guesses were always 2023 as Putin’s curtain call.
However there are many months of bombardment between now and then which is heart-wrenching for the poor Ukrainians.
The problem with some NATO countries is that they would rather have the oil and gas from Russia than support Ukraine. I admit that the UK and the USA could do more. But as Ukraine has bitten the bullet in renouncing its intention to join NATO, it let’s those two nations off the hook, so to speak. Which is unfortunate. But the likelihood of either country committing itself to wwiii is virtually nil.
As for Ukranians retaining their culture, I see no problem with that. But as a naturalised citizen of the UK; assimilation isn’t all bad, and there can be benefits as well.
India (which in most part of its independent years has been neutral) is seen as close allay of Russia-continuing business ties.
But EU puts sanctions and gives guidelines on how to work around those sanctions is considered favourably. Oil embargo which does not come into force till the end of the year, and no word on gas embargos. the oil embargo will reduce EU payments by 10billion … oil payments are multiple times of this.
I don’t need to consult astrology to know the following facts about war
One. Wars are always started by politicians. There is no such thing as spontaneous armed conflict between peoples.
Two. They are always disasters that involve loss and suffering for the ordinary people involved .
Three. Those who do do the fighting and dying almost never benefit from the conflict.
With regard to the current war between Russian and Ukraine there will be no winners only losers.
The west is partially responsible for creating the conditions that have led this conflict by wilfully ignoring the very real historical grievances the Russians felt about the Crimea and Donbas region. The fact the US and Britain have stirred the pot in the Ukraine and then have failed to deliver all the military equipment the Ukrainians need
is particularly reprehensible. The solution to the situation needs to be diplomatic but I don’t see much in the way of meaningful progress. Putin seems to live in a fantasy world where Russia with a population of about 145 million thinks he can rival a massively larger and more economically powerful NATO. The US administration are happy to encourage that delusion knowing that regardless of whether they win or lose the Ukrainians have massively degraded the Russian military who may never recover. Long term the danger is that both Russia and the Ukraine will become unstable which is just going to lead to further wars down the road.
the instability of Ukraine and Russia will cause issues with global food supply,
Thanks Marjorie. And I fervently hope Solaia is right about regime change and peace.
You mention next spring as one point to watch for change with Putin, and Ukraine. It’s interesting to see that the April 20th, 2022 solar eclipse will conjunct the Uranus of Putin’s 4th Term chart. That eclipse is square to transiting Pluto, which is at just 0 degrees Aquarius. As the eclipse is in the last degree of Aries, and Pluto is on the move, it looks very much like a marker point for a transition in power, with some kind of military flavour in Aries.
Ukraine’s Saturn is 1 Aquarius, with tr Pluto closing in, and Saturn in Pisces will have already opposed the Ukraine Sun at 0 Virgo. By May, the lunar eclipse at 14 Scorpio is conjunct the Ukraine MC. Pressure on the Ukraine government, pressure on Zelensky too, as you say. But possibly some of this will be facing the unimaginable and lengthy task of rebuilding so much, eventually.
Sorry – I meant April 20th, 2023 for the solar eclipse!
We don’t know why people do what they do. I believe it usually is generated from despair. I do know that all of the Ukraine’s that fled to other European nations will definitely have a financial impact on their economy’s . and all that steel from the desecrated buildings, who benefits from that if Ukraine falls.
Not to mention our own economy , and people lashing out all over in despair trying to send a message that we as a American Nation need as well.
I will pray on this Memorial Day for all those who have fought for democracy, have attributed to Finland and Sweden Joining Nato. And that possibly some day arms build up , could possibly be turned into planet conservation. In spite of all our evolution , this is still a beautiful planet.
I know I might be viewed as an eternal optimist here, but the very latest intelligence reports are wild. While Russians have advanced in Severodonesk, it seems they may have been seriously running out of vechiles (!!!) overall. Also, outright mutinies of Russian soldiers have been detected by British Ministry of Defense (who’ve had incredibly accurate intel throughout the war).
And my most important assertion remains unaltered: Russia can’t maintain War of Attrition on its’ own, or even with help of China and India for one simple reason. They miss manpower. They can’t get anyone to come and fight on contract, and forced draft would spell end to Putin.
It may take a regime change in Russia to achieve formal peace, put this is coming.
But for now, although “They miss manpower”, they are pursuing a scorched earth policy of destroying everthing in their path before advancing. Biden wants to see the Russian military weakened and then drags his feet over the heavy artillery needed to repel the invasion. What does the alliance want? Have cake and eat it comes to mind. I resent that my tax money is being used to fund Putin’s imperial ambitions AND supply arms to Ukraine. Where is the West’s resolve? Why are not more people protesting, I ask myself? I have decided to focus on humanitarian aid to help me feel less helpless (and angry).
Another probability that comes to mind is that the actual fighting stops later this year or early next year but that getting the Russians to leave the Eastern territories becomes an ongoing struggle (as reflected in the above charts) especially as the Donbas is where there are rich deposits of lithium and rare earth metals that are in high demand for modern energy applications (and are of particular interest to the Chinese). The war may end but the struggle to regain control may continue for years to come. With the West abandoning UE as soon as the physical fighting ends. Russia has already been looting Ukrainian steel, grain and agricultural machinery. Unless there is a decisive victory it could all drag on for years at a lower intensity. Which is why it is so tiresome that the western allies say how important it is to support Ukraine and then fall short on their promises.
@Susan, yes, Russian Military will definitely destroy everything they can. But question is, for what end? If you look at historic wars “Scorched Earth” tactic is a defence or retreat tactic, NOT offensive one. This is the way Stalin used it in WWII in Russia and Ukraine, then Nazis.
And, if Russia is missing vehicles, as said, it become even more difficult. How are the occupying forces supposed to survive there, if they’ve destroyed everything and can’t get supplies in?
They most likely need to start confiscating private property to keep this up.
You are, of course, right Solaia, and I am sure the Russians will next be looting private property as well to meet their transport needs. But the point about ‘scorched earth’ is that it doesn’t require much manpower, only weapons, it is devastating and intended to bring the enemy to their knees by breaking their resolve and making recovery difficult. A colleague pointed out to me that Russia and Ukraine are competitors on the global grain market and with UE starved of resources Russia can gain dominance there too. It doesn’t surprise me that the charts for UE and Zelensky look bleak. It will be an uphill struggle for years to come and the West for all its rhetoric about solidarity and freedom has decided that in reality it’s “my country first”. The Trump effect…
@Susan, the issue with using “scorched earth” to demoralized civilian population is that it really doesn’t work that way, psychologically. I know that first hand from stories of people from Finnish Lapland. Germans set everything on fire and destroyed bridges (important in North with rivers), when they retreated in 1944-45. Yet people who’d been evacuated to Southern Finland and Sweden returned there the moment they could, and lived, in some cases in pits while rebuilding.
I see no reason why Ukrainians, incredibly resilient people they are, wouldn’t do the same.
Also, I think that when you are talking about “Europeans” who will welcome Russian resources with open arms here, you are really describing people who never had any direct experience in dealing with Russians. Because those of us who know Russia, also know just can’t deliver. What does it tell, to you, that this supposedly big player in Global grain market is now stealing grain from Ukraine? To me, it’s a clear sign corrupt functionaries have probably sold the stocks they claim to have to fund some yachts.
And to make the next crop happen, they will need manpower that’s not there…
Also, I was not referring to “looted” vehicles here. I was speaking about Russian State eventually having to confiscate private property of Russians to meet their “war economy” needs. And Putin, or even less his minions, don’t want to go there, because their “social contract” with Russian people is based on Russians having some access to nice things. Certainly not declaring marshal law and confiscate middle class people’s SUVs.
I’m honestly also completely shocked on how Russia has been able to sell some people in the West this idea of being somehow functional society behind Putin, when really, it’s amazingly dysfunctional in everything but making a handful of oligarchs (all living abroad until recently) rich beyond anyone’s wildest dreams.
@ Solaia,
I too am feeling more optimistic about Ukraine pulling through all of this. I don’t think Putin is going to be able to succeed in holding onto any part of Ukraine in the long run – I imagine the Ukrainian people would simply resort to underground, guerrilla, and terrorist tactics if the Donbas does fall to the Russian Federation.
I generally tried to read good news covering Ukraine as a way to alleviate the distress. Reading stories about volunteers helping refugees, more Ukrainian children being born, more Ukrainian civilians evacuating, and Ukrainian cultural events are always encouraging.
I read one article about Ukrainian museum workers, academics, etc. who are working to save Ukraine’s cultural heritage. They’ve been locking paintings, artifacts, textiles, manuscripts, and other items of importance in safety vaults. They’ve been placing sandbags around monuments and landmarks.
It was nice to read about the Ukrainian people taking these measures to safeguard their cultural heritage – which can be just as vulnerable as people during times of civil unrest, conflict, and war.
I do hate reading about Ukrainian civilian casualties. However, I did read an article that reported that compared to many of the other ongoing conflicts in the world, Ukraine has endured significantly less casualties – which I suppose we should be thankful for. For example, over 400,000 plus Yemeni civilians have tragically died as a result of famine and war. And it’s also been reported that the ongoing war in Ethiopia’s ethnic Tigray region is supposedly the world’s bloodiest conflict right now having the most casualties reported.
Also, the European Union, the U.S., and other Western societies have already pledged to help Ukraine rebuild their infrastructure and restore their landmarks after this is all over. That’s also encouraging to read.
All in all, Ukraine has unanimous support from the West (and the West has the money, the weapons, and the power Ukraine needs) while the Russian Federation basically has the support of the Global South (which, with the exception of China [and even they’re not getting too involved] actually has very little to offer the Russian Federation).
@Chris Romero, yes. I think Putin has driven himself to a real Catch 22 situation. In order to avoid an utter defeat in Ukraine, he should have declared martial law after the first, disastrous month of war. But he didn’t then, and he can’t now, because forced drafts or confiscating private property, especially vehicles Russian army desperately needs, would definitely end his regime.
Not to say anything coming after Putin would be any better. But I think he might, ultimately, accept an apparent humiliation in Ukraine to keep his power.
Solaia, I do hope you’re right and the astrology is describing the long rebuild of a shattered country.
@Marjorie, yes, the devastation is enormous. And obviously there will be political tensions, as the “wartime unity” wades.
But the news on logistic challenges Russia faces are absolutely stunning. I think UK Ministry of Defense mentions Kherson Oblast in particular. Today, I read interceptions – from Ukrainians, so might take with a grain of salt – of troops reduced to eating dogs. And I would say looking at a map these are expected west of Dnepr, if Russia can’t secure bridges or even passing.
The UN reported that there are now over 7 million Ukrainians living in neighboring countries as refugees – Poland alone is now hosting almost 4 million. Some experts predict there could be as many as 15 million Ukrainian refugees living throughout Europe and abroad in the upcoming months. Vladimir Putin, in addition to shelling the Donbas region, expediently granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians who are still residing in the occupied area.
Based on all of the pieces I’ve read from various International Relations and Eastern European and Eurasian political academics and experts, the general hypothesis is that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are more likely to reach a stale-mate rather than either nation achieving an outright victory anytime soon.
Since Russian forces are extremely unlikely to succeed in taking over the entire country of Ukraine, taking control of the Donbas region and turning it into another de facto pseudo breakaway “republic” – similar to Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.
I’ve been reading the stories of many Ukrainian refugees – particularly mothers, expecting mothers, and the children. Many Ukrainian expecting mothers have had to give birth to their children in other countries like Poland and Italy while their husbands and other family members are still in Ukraine for living scattered throughout other countries in Europe. They’ve discussed how scary and stressful it is giving birth alone in hospitals in nations that are completely foreign to them.
When I read the stories of so many Ukrainian refugees and survivors of war and when about the turbulent history of Ukraine, it’s obvious to me that the Ukrainians are indeed a persecuted people and their plight parallels the plights of many other persecuted peoples of the world – such as the Kurds, the Tibetans, the West Papuans, and many, many others.
I do hope Vladimir Putin dies from a terrifying, slow, and very painful death (I sincerely hope the cancer rumors are true) and when he does meet his demise, I promise to celebrate by throwing a “Dead Putin” party (similar to the ones many British people threw when Margaret Thatcher met her demise). However, in the meantime, while that subhuman pariah continues to live and breathe, the Ukrainians appear destined to become a culture and people living in diaspora for the time being.
Having read so many reports and pieces written by various experts on this matter, it isn’t unforeseeable that there could possibly be more ethnic Ukrainians living in diaspora at some point than in Ukraine – especially if they continue leaving at such a rapid rate and if the hypothesized 15 million or more refugees abroad scenario comes to fruition.
Other ethnic groups experiencing similar plights – like the Assyrians, Maronites, and Mandaeans – have become diaspora majority ethnic groups. If this happens with the Ukrainians, then I hope their diaspora will be resilient by preserving their ethnic group, culture, and identity in their host countries by practicing endogamy, forming insular and tight knit enclaves and communities, and teaching their children the Ukrainian language, arts, and customs. In other words, if the Ukrainian people are going to be forced to live abroad, then they need to resist cultural assimilation as much as possible.
Cultural assimilation, in some ways, can be like a cultural genocide for ethnic groups forced to live in diaspora. And being the grandchild of Andalusian Spaniard refugee grandparents who fled Andalusia, Spain for Florida / U.S. during the Spanish Civil War, I can sympathize with immigrant and refugee diasporas all over the world who are trying to preserve their identities in foreign nations.
@Chris Romero, the issue with most “Eastern European Experts” is they always underestimate the capacity of Russian leaders and, yes, people to screw things up. We have a verb in Finnish for screwing up things with a literal translation of “doing things the Russian way”.
So, every analysis that plays on Russian plans being carried out as “on paper’ is simply flawed. It may does not spare people under Russia’s sphere of influence from suffering – in fact, often quite the opposite. But savvy observers do usually find a pattern of where things are getting wrong in Russia, and right now, there are some if not 1917, then 1906 like things going on.