The victory in Taiwan’s presidential election of Lai Ching-te — a man Beijing has described as a dangerous separatist — is less of a provocation to future conflict than it might have been given that his party’s (DPP) share of the vote fell to 40% in a three way contest.
Analysts say that Beijing’s response to his victory could translate into a more calibrated approach to Taiwan and make Chinese military action towards Taiwan less likely though Beijing will still be unrelenting in its pressure on the country.
Lai Ching-te, 6 October 1959, whose father died in a mining accident when he was a baby had a redoubtable mother who worked to see him educated, in part in the USA.
He is a Sun Mars in Libra; with a confident and charming Pluto Venus in Virgo square Jupiter (Moon) in Sagittarius and in an unyielding trine to Saturn.
Despite the relatively low key Beijing reaction couched in the usual flamboyant though not blood-curdling terms, there are indications of a flare up across the middle of this year. Lai Ching-te’s relationship chart with the China 1912 country chart indicates implacable opposition and hostility on both sides with a composite Mars Pluto conjunction square Uranus – and the composite Sun will catch the tr Uranus opposition from June onwards setting them at odds.
His relationship chart with Xi Jinping is, if anything, even more fraught in essence with a composite power-struggling Mars Pluto conjunction square Saturn – and that is being put under intolerable pressure from June onwards with tr Uranus square the composite Mars and opposition the composite Saturn and rattling the composite Pluto the following year.
Lai Ching-te’s personal chart flags up high risk and calamities at the same time – and those influences run on into 2025.
The China 1912 chart has Mars at 24 Taurus opposition Venus at 25 Scorpio which will be activated from May this year onwards into April 2025.
Finding a chart for Taiwan is tricky since its history is intertwined with China’s. But the China 1912 chart did show up the three Taiwan Strait conflicts in 1954/58 and 1996.
The 1954 crisis occurred when Pluto was at 25 Leo which was square the Mars in Taurus and Venus in Scorpio on the China chart. By the second military action in 1958 Pluto had just moved into Virgo and Neptune just into Scorpio. In 1995 for the third Taiwan Strait crisis Pluto was with three degrees of exiting Scorpio. So Pluto’s transitional years between signs do appear to heighten tensions within China. Not surprising given the high-stress, emphasized Pluto on the focal point of a yod in the China 1912 chart inconjunct Uranus sextile Venus.
Xi Jinping’s initial presidency confirmation chart has a Sun, North Node and Mercury in Scorpio between 23, 26, and 28 degrees so will be on alert over the next two years as tr Uranus opposes and de-stabilises its core planets.
[This year does not look like calming down globally I regret to say.]See previous post China 29 December 2023 and other China posts in SEARCH.
I don’t understand what “a more calibrated approach” means.
Toned down, scaled down from the heavy foot that was expected.