Scotland – voting nationalist but not for an instant split

The SNP were the clear winners in the local elections in Scotland, collecting 453 seats, a gain of 23 on the 2017 result with Labour trailing behind on 282. Tories were down 63. Despite which a recent poll showed that less than a third of Scots voters want an independence referendum next year. The polls in general on an Indyref are running neck and neck, though the economic indicators are worse than in 2014.

Scotland received £1,633 per person more in public spending than the UK average in 2019-20 and generated £308 less in tax revenue per person than the UK average. This leaves a large funding shortfall for an independent Scotland that was not there in 2014. It would face a persistent deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP — well ahead of international norms. Borders costs would rise, leading to lower levels of trade – the rest of the UK accounts for over 60% of Scotland’s exports, four times more than with the EU.

It would impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes. Most economists think an advanced economy of Scotland’s size would be viable on a standalone basis in the longer term, but the short and medium term would be painful.

  Nicola Sturgeon, 19 July 1970 3.16 pm Irvine, Scotland, is fired up and raring to go with tr Pluto square her Jupiter in 2022/2023. Tr Pluto will finish opposing her Cancer Sun this August to December and is catching the frustrating, trapped opposition to her Sun/Mars midpoint this year and next before moving to oppose her Mars in Leo in 2023/2024 – so despite her Jupiterian confidence surge, she is running into mountainous obstacles and setbacks. Definitely not on a winning streak and with tr Neptune opposition her Pluto from the middle of this month on and off into early 2023 she will sense her power being undermined.

  The Scotland England Act of Union, 1 May 1707, would be the one to split asunder if independence came. The chart indicates an exceptionally strong though not easy bond with an over-controlling Sun Pluto square and a tussle-for-the-upper-hand Jupiter Pluto also square Sun.

  When the 2014 IndyRef was held tr Saturn in Scorpio was in hard-aspect to the Sun and Jupiter Pluto and there was a rebellious, underdog-uprising Uranus square Pluto.  Tr Saturn this year is back in hard aspect to those key planets; and more significantly tr Uranus will conjunct the Sun and square the Pluto Jupiter. The last time tr Uranus was in Taurus in the 1930s the SNP was founded and rose to prominence.

  It may be there is a move towards more devolution while holding back from an outright divorce. The Act chart does look exceptionally troubled for several years ahead especially in 2025 but it has held firm for over 300 years so it will have lived through multiple Astro-challenges in that time.  

20 thoughts on “Scotland – voting nationalist but not for an instant split

    • How is it difficult to hold them to account ?
      You may not agree with their policies but there are frequent elections where there is the opportunity to do just that.

      • Clearly elections are only as valid as the information available to the electorate on which to base your choice, as any tin pot dictator will tell you. Ask Putin, he is an expert at winning elections.
        Not everything is just about a simple political difference, but rather the state of democracy for all.

        • I can assure you that the SNP are THE most heavily scrutinised party in the UK.
          If a fraction of that scrutiny was aimed at the Conservatives slogans on Brexit and everything else for that matter the UK may not be in such dire straits

          • I’m sorry but I dont agree at all.
            And I have no truck with the Tories if thats what you are implying.

          • My point continues to be that it is the SNP themselves who are opaque and suppressive in their actions.
            Which obviously makes scrutiny difficult, just as it makes elections less valid as a means of dissent.

  1. I’m American, with Scottish and English heritage a few generations back. Very much enjoyed some short holiday travel to England, and hope to visit longer and maybe even live there a while later in life. Enjoying the perspective here on issues on both sides of the pond. Obviously balance between regional and national level government a big issue for both UK and USA.

    In 1707, was there enthusiasm among the Scottish people for the Union? Or was it entirely a way to get out of crippling economic crisis in Scotland at the time?

    • There were riots in the streets.
      A large number of nobles lost money in the Darien adventure and sold out their country for English gold

      • While Scotland’s nobles were almost bankrupted by the Darien fiasco, it affected almost every family. Thousands of ordinary Scottish folk invested money in the expedition, to the tune of approximately £500,000 – about half of the national capital available. Almost every Scot who had £5 to spare invested in the Darien scheme.

  2. It would be interesting to know how many Scots in other parts of the UK voted in the referendum. Not the Independence, but whether to leave the UK. I reckon that there were far more of them living south of the border than actually live in Scotland. And as this is about the United Kingdom, maybe we should all get a say.

    To simplify the issue with NI, I think that NI should only buy EU goods through Eire and that Eire should only buy UK goods through NI. both should be free to buy and sell in their own respective countries and for the rest of the UK, it just means a much smaller amount of paperwork, then what is going on now. And that’s all for the idiot’s guide as to how to conduct a trade deal.

    • The trouble with an open vote throughout the UK is that Ireland (Eire) would then demand similar rights, ie to vote for NI to secede from the UK.

      I would be interested to know how many Irish (Eire) citizens live in the rest of the UK. The Common Travel Area (CTA) allows British and Irish citizens to move freely and reside in either jurisdiction and enjoy associated rights and privileges, including the right to work, study and vote in certain elections, as well as to access social welfare benefits and health services.

      I suppose a similar arrangement could be made with Scotland couldn’t it?

  3. If your summation of Scotlands economy were true, it only serves to be a damning indictment of mismanagement as part of the Union, not the economy of an independent Scotland. And of course makes it even more important that Scotland dissolves the Union.
    As it was David Cameron no fan of independence said that Scotland could of course survive as an independent country.
    And we will

        • Serious question..what improvement have you seen in Scotland with more devolution in the last decade and more? Does that give you confidence that Scottish politicians are better than their UK counterparts?

          • The electoral system in Scotland is different so there is less tribalism and parties work together. The SNP is scrutinised to a much higher degree by the press up here. Other parties less so.
            Have there been improvements ? Yes there have. Free prescriptions, better support for families, better social care to enable people to stay in their homes. More social housing built than anywhere else in the UK. There are still problems of course. The NHS is struggling under COVID and rising demand as is education.These have long term structural and funding problems. The overall budget that Scotland has to spend is determined by Westminster budgets. If they cut spending on the NHS in England or fail to keep up with inflationary costs, that limits the amount that can be spent on the NHS in Scotland.
            The difference up here is that the politicians in charge up here are trusted by and large . Increasing wins at every election for the past 15 years tells you that people are supportive of the government.There is very little trust in Westminster politicians though there are undoubtedly some excellent politicians there too. They have little or no chance of achieving power.

          • There are 4.3 million voters in Scotland, 641k voted SNP, which is 1 in 7. On a low turnout the SNP got 34% of the votes cast.
            One problem is that the SNP is the only viable Scottish party. The others are English parties for which Scotland is mostly an afterthought.
            The SNP has been in charge since 2007, during which time it has faced mounting criticism over the deterioration in education, health, the economy, alcohol and drug problems.

  4. Interesting.

    In my opinion, the only way to level up throughout the UK is by some sort of regional devolution or representation in the UK Parliament. The Office for National Statistics administrative areas (NUTS) would be a starting point – 9 in England plus Scotland, Wales and NI. [The English areas include: North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South West.]

    Actually, in respect of the Brexit vote, 9 of the NUTS voted to leave and 3 of the NUTS voted to stay (London, Scotland and NI). Had the EU double majority voting system been applied to the UK NUTS areas, we would still have Brexited.

    Personally, I don’t want Scotland to leave the UK but think it very unfair that my home county of Yorkshire and Humber, which is almost the same population as London and as Scotland, should not receive the same funding.

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: