Michael Moore & Barack Obama – hoping against the odds

Michel Moore, the documentary maker and left-wing activist, is convinced against the general consensus that the Democrats will win big in the midterms. He predicts there will be a record turnout of younger voters whose views pundits and commentators often miss, who have been riled by the SCOTUS anti-abortion vote. He says the biggest political grouping in the US is not Republicans or Democrats, but non-voters and this is the group he wants to reach before November 8. He correctly called Trump’s win in 2016 but that is no guarantee he can repeat his winning bet this time round.

  Born 23 April 1954 12.45pm Flint, Michigan, he has a Taurus Sun conjunct his Midheaven from the 9th opposition Saturn in Scorpio on his IC – practical, serious, ultra-determined. He also has a charming Venus in his 10th and a dynamic Moon Mars in Capricorn in his performing 5th house – so not a shrinking violet.

  He does have a prominent Neptune in the 3rd opposition Mercury in Aries and square a revolutionary, outspoken Uranus, trine Jupiter and sextile Pluto, so he will be idealistic and creative but not always easy to pin down.

  His chart does show mild uplift from transiting Jupiter trines and sextiles to various midpoints – and one ‘unusual success’ indicator from tr Jupiter square his Pluto/MC midpoint but that is heavily dependent on his birth time being accurate to the minute. Otherwise he has tr Pluto conjunct his Mercury/Saturn midpoint running into early December which will make him gloomy or overly-serious. Not exactly conclusive.

  Barack Obama’s chart is much the same over the election period with a hotch potch of pluses and minuses. On the positive side he has a successful tr Jupiter trine his Midheaven and sextile his Solar Arc Midheaven and a mildly upbeat tr Pluto sextile his Mars/Jupiter midpoint till December. But those are running at the same time as an undermining, panicky tr Neptune opposition his Mars running through till January. Tr Saturn opposition his Sun/Uranus midpoint making him highly impatient about restrictions. And a nerve-stretched, high-risk tr Uranus opposition his Saturn/Pluto midpoint.

Tr Saturn is also sitting on his Ascendant which won’t have him singing and dancing and is then moving him into a less ambitious and less visible few years ahead. 2024 look less than ecstatic for him with his Solar Arc Pluto conjunct his Neptune.  

29 thoughts on “Michael Moore & Barack Obama – hoping against the odds

  1. @Chris, i’m as hopeful as you are but Miami-Dade is a real concer, i’m also considering the following … it’s possible that Crist and Demmings could be pleased with the overal dems’ performance for Congress and the senate. As far as DeSantis being gloomy… everyone I know is voting for Crist and Demmings so the election will probably be close in Florida as usual rather than a landslide, that’s not what Desantis is hoping for, plus Trump is beating up on him and is expected to announce his presidential run for 2024 in an effort to insulate himself from all his legal issues. This would mean that DeSantis will have to wait 4 years potentially indicated by Marjorie’s forecast for his success in 2029.

  2. Hoping against the odds? Eh, not so much. Abortion rights, voter intimidation, social security and Medicare on the chopping block, corporations running amok are big issues here. Not likely the republicans are going to prevail.

  3. 2 astrologers I’ve read online appear to be very pessimistic – citing the Saturn-Uranus square (presumably conservative Saturn winning over progressive Uranus) and the eclipse on Election Day – but offering hope of a sort by explaining that things have to hit rock bottom before they can change. (historically true with US politics and society, still Americans won’t learn from history, tho I suppose you could say that about humanity as a whole, given some Europeans’ lurch towards fascism, and the general paralysis over global warming)

    A third (Vedic) astrologer appears to have withdrawn his original prediction that the Democrats will win, and now says that anything could happen.

    Then again, many astrologers got both the 2016 and 2020 elections wrong.

    Just hope Democratic voters will show up and their votes counted, given the dearth of election workers, voter intimidation tactics, and election officials who have quit their jobs due to threats (unbelievable this is allowed to happen …)

    • @ Terri,

      This is just my own personal observation. However, I’ve noticed that most Vedic Astrologers I’ve come across tend to be very conservative. Many I’ve spoken to have been strong Donald Trump and Narendra Modi (especially the ones living in India) supporters.

      I have come across so many Vedic Astrologers (both online and ones I’ve met in person) who don’t even try to hide their personal bias and will openly express their support for conservatives. For example, I came across one supposedly “reputable” Vedic Astrologer who actually had the audacity to say she believes Republicans will win by a landslide unless the “Communist, Stalinist Democrats don’t bus in a bunch of illegal immigrants to the polls”

      So, I’ve gotten to where there are very few Vedic Astrologers I trust. All but 3 (that I know of) Vedic Astrologers predicted Trump would win reelection in 2020. They were obviously wrong.

      By the way, who were the two non-Vedic Astrologers who predicted Republicans winning this midterm election?

  4. About the polls…

    Joy Reid on MSNBC recently did a segment about the polls on her show. She interviewed an analyst and they discussed why nobody should be trusting the polls this election.

    Majority of the polls that came out in October were coming from Republican-backed polling firms (like Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.) there were hardly ANY polls released from Democratic-backed polling firms. So, there’s been nothing to counteract the narrative.

    The analyst also explained how even psephology websites like FiveThirtyEight appear to have been compromised in some way this election. For example, Nate Silver (who is extremely pessimistic about Democrats chances this election) has reportedly blocked other statisticians and psephologists on Twitter who disagree with his analysis. For example, Nate Silver blocked G. Elliot Morris back in 2020…and he apparently did so again this year.

    Also, I noticed one thing on my own at FiveThirtyEight that wasn’t mentioned in Joy Reid’s segment. I have FiveThirtyEight’s list of “rated” pollsters bookmarked in my U.S. Politics and Elections browser folder. I check that list regularly. I noticed that Nate Silver has changed some of the pollsters he once gave an “F” rating to in the past to an “A” rating this year. I just found that a bit peculiar given that it’s unlikely there’s been a radical shift in these polling firm’s methodology.

    Many believe the Republicans are deliberately skewing the polls – and this adds to Anita’s point – so if they do lose on November 8, they’ll cry foul and claim a rigged election. This might explain why the astrology is suggesting a lot of civil unrest during the time of the election – all the White racist hillbillies and rednecks will probably take to the streets screaming that the election was “stolen” from them.

    Anyway, I used to be the type of person who always believed in and trusted the polls. I defended them profusely. Not anymore.

    I trust actual votes more than any poll. Just vote!

    • Majority of the polls that came out in October were coming from Republican-backed polling firms (like Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc.) there were hardly ANY polls released from Democratic-backed polling firms. So, there’s been nothing to counteract the narrative

      I think that is the Mars in Gemini square Neptune with Mars being the actually ‘machinery’ or the polls that produce the data (Gemini) squaring Neptune which makes the data misleading.

      What I am confused about is DeSantis. Neptune is in orb of opposing his natal sun while Mars in Gemini is within orb of squaring his natal sun.

      One would expect DeSantis to be knee deep in some sort of scandal with Neptune opposing his natal sun unless your consider the migrant stunt he pulled to to be the manifestation of that astrological aspect and Mars in Gemini would be the attacks from Trump who is a Gemini.

      All of the polling has him and Rubio supposedly up by double digits but they are both campaigning as if they are in tight races.

      DeSantis just sent out this mailer that claims taxpayers are paying for Biden’s student loan forgiveness program with a picture of a nonbinary college graduate in heavy makeup.

      Why does DeSantis seem so desperate unless the internal polling from his campaign has his race against Crist a lot closer than the public polls which have him up by double digits unless he is just a vindictive troll.

      • @ Roderick,

        That’s right…and Mercury was in Retrograde for part of October too (along with the retroshade period as well) – so, that might also have played a role in the outcome of those polls (we often think of Mercury in Retrograde having a lot to do with miscommunication).

        As for Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, I’m noticing much of what you’re noticing. I’m a Floridian and I can honestly say this is the most nervous I think I’ve ever seen Marco Rubio. Rubio seemed rather confident when he went up against Patrick Murphy…..but not so much with Val Demings.

        Val Demings is actually very popular here in Florida and she exudes a lot of confidence and has a way of inspiring optimism. It’s an added plus that Val Demings is originally from my city (Jacksonville – she was born and raised her) and that might be another reason why she’s well liked in my area of the state).

        Anyway, I know Florida has moved further to the right since the 2010s….but I wouldn’t write this state off just yet. Charlie Crist, for example, is a more powerful candidate than many think. Yes, he’s been in our state politics since the early 1990s….but he has a loyal base. In 2014 – the biggest “red wave” year we’ve seen since 1994, Charlie Crist went up against incumbent Rick Scott for governor. Despite Democrats doing so poorly in other parts of the country, Crist still managed to come within striking distance of defeating Rick Scott (who was an incumbent).

        I already voted early – I voted for Charlie Crist and Val Demings of course. We’ll see how things go on November 8. I know Uranus is playing a big role in this election – that can bring the unexpected and surprises. Perhaps Crist and Demings pull it off? If they do, then that might explain why Marjorie sees DeSantis looking so gloomy over the election period. She also mentioned something about Jupiter aspects Crist will be having….and something about Demings looking in better spirits by December. So, I’m kind of excited (and a little nervous) to see what happens.

        I have noticed that all of the reliable Tarot readers (and I’m picky when consulting Tarot readers) show Crist and Demings winning…..but most of them have been on the fence with candidates like Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams winning. I just thought that was interesting. I hope they all win though; I know I’ll have to wait and see.

        • @ Chris
          Maybe since DeSantis has money to burn he wants to run up the numbers so he can prove that he’s a bono fide candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

          I’m not sure that Crist can pull it off. He has lost two of his previous attempts at statewide office since he was elected governor in 2006.

          I would have preferred Fried just to someone different but Florida Democrats obviously didn’t want her since Crist got almost twice as many votes as she did.

          I am still skeptical about that so-called assault on the guy who was a canvasser for Rubio.

          Why was Rubio so anxious to report it on his social media.

          I mean doesn’t he have campaign staff who could have done that?

          But the guy turned out to be a white supremacist and involved in Charlottesville in 2017 so it didn’t exactly turn out how Rubio thought it would.

  5. Charlene, thank you for speaking up about Mr. Moore. He’s one of the few who advocates for the common wo/man these days. What makes me cautiously optimistic about Democrats’ chances in addition to youth support in response to the Roe decision is that Republicans are openly targeting Social Security. Over decades, they have rebranded U.S. Social Security as an “entitlement,” but as a recipient, I saw huge amounts deducted from my salary over the years, to fund my eventual pension. With accruing interest, there should be more than sufficient principal to fund my payments. The Social Security trust fund, however, has been enthusiastically looted by politicians over the years, so it’s essential for Republicans to recast it as an “entitlement,” with welfare overtones, as they are the party who wish to cut it, raise the retirement age, and reduce benefits across the board. Republicans have been geniuses in getting working and middle class people to vote against their own interests, by masking their lavish tax giveaways to billionaires with overlays of white supremacy, homo- and transphobia, and igniting hatred against immigrants–who do, indeed, tap into our strained welfare system massively, just as they do in Europe. I am most worried about the raft of election deniers running in red states for positions that organize elections…these Republican candidates are already refusing to certify results, if they don’t win. Madness and it subverts everything America has ever stood for. So, with all of you, I am watching results with baited breath. Marjorie, so appreciate your work in this area, and have been following you for years. If at some point you have some extra time, a glance at the Social Security Administration chart could potentially be revealing. Peace!

      • Good grief, how did I miss this one? Many thanks. These aspects should be very worrying to the millions who depend on these vital programs. My own career was a blend of salaried work and years of contract work (consulting, writing, editing) to supplement, but my children, due to terrible job markets (now much better, but at this point they’re seasoned business owners and salaried work would seem to be a step backwards for them), both have health insurance through ObamaCare. It’s on a sliding scale basis, so quite expensive for them as they’ve made their businesses pay…but non-government options are literally unaffordable even for many in the upper middle class, amounting to more than mortgages or rent in many cases (to cover a family of 3 or more). As for Medicare, conservatives who govern that program have been quietly, almost invisibly, doing what they can to cut it before the midterms. For example, they have cut out coverage for many specific drugs; cancer patients can’t assume the most effective chemotherapy, for example, will be covered for them. Can’t imagine what will happen if the Republicans are in the majority; it will be a true slash-and-burn. It’s incomprehensible to me how dumb our electorate has become; swallowing their own interests in favor of the opportunity to hate gays, immigrants, and those of color, which is all the Republicans are offering these days. Even some Democrats would welcome a judicious trimming of non-essential programs, though there are many fewer these days. I’ve gone on too long, sorry. Thanks for that illuminating October post. It upset but enlivened me!

  6. It does seem to me that there is an element of wishful thinking in some of these predictions, especially those that pick out just one reason for their prediction.
    That said next week sees a lunar eclipse and the sun opposing uranus. There will be some surprises. I also note that the solar eclipse seems to have provoked some havoc in the last week.

    • @Speedy, there absolutely is some back up for expectations on Democrats “overperforming” at least in places. For instance, high advance vote turnout where available, and high likely Democrat vote share among those voting. Also, I read, very low turnout among 18 to 30-year-old Republicans compared to 2020. I know this is a smaller demographic group, and breaks overwhelmingly for Republicans, but it may be an indicator for lower enthusiasm also among older generations.

      • I am not saying that there is no substance to the predictions of Moore and Obama. I am just cautious as one must be in regard to the US electoral system. The US website fivethirtyeight which looks at polls was quite sanguine over the Summer for the Democrats hopes in the coming election but this optimism has receded in the last few weeks.
        In the UK I remember very old Labour campaigners, on the radio in the seventies, saying that their best campaign with cheering crowds, meetings etc was 1935 which was their worst defeat until 2019.
        The one solid prediction backed by astrology is that there will be surprises.

  7. If anyone’s interested in those numbers I mentioned, you can find them at targetearly.targetsmart.com.

    As to Michael Moore, he may not be everyone’s favorite, but he was spot on about Trump winning in 2016 (I remember reading his essay before the election and feeling my heart sink into my stomach as I saw that his reasoning made sense), and I think he has a lot of insight into what regular voters (i.e., the non-punditocracy) are thinking. I hope he’s right this time, every bit as much as I hoped against hope that he was wrong before Election Day 2016.

    • To me Trump winning was a given, based on the astrology but even more so on the tsunami of press
      he got from the media, both left, and right.
      And the virulent misogyny of the Bernie Bros refusing to vote for her along with the obvious troll campaigning.
      Yet still, despite what Moore said if not for the absurdity of the EC , she comfortably won by 3 million votes.

  8. Insightful comments, Solaia. I had not read the information about TikTok as a source of news (I’m not on it either), but it’s a much younger-skewing platform than Facebook and seems likely to present information with a less right-wing slant, which is all to the good, in my opinion.

    I don’t think anyone can be complacent, but Moore and Obama are correct: it’s all down to turnout. I would also say, don’t give too much credit to conventional polling averages such as 538–they are heavily skewed rightward due to the preponderance of suspect GOP-favoring pollsters such as Trafalgar and Rasmussen. Both of those outfits are known to heavily poll the congressional generic ballot question in the months before the election to create a falsely pro-GOP narrative, then change their parameters right before Election Day so they’re not totally discredited.

    Other, more hopeful news comparing 2018 (a blue wave year) with this year shows that at this point in the cycle in 2018, the Republicans had a 500,000-vote early-voting advantage; this year at the same point, the Democrats have a 2 million-vote advantage. It’s no guarantee, of course, but it’s much more positive than the infernal horse-race reporting of the mainstream media would lead you to believe.

    Getting into 2023 and 2024, it’s not surprising if Moore and Obama aren’t looking 100 percent happy; no rational person expects the Trumpist nightmare to be fully resolved right away, and I think we’re all worried about what violence the MAGAverse will attempt if they are thwarted and their candidates don’t win.

    • @al22: Well said about the polls. Especially about the two you highlighted.
      I posted a link on here to a poll in July that was sponsored by 5 prominent universities which had Dems at 52 to GOP 48. I’d like to think a collaborative effort by these entities would produce a good unbiased methodology poll, so we’ll see how accurate they were. But there’s one pollster who has been the most accurate at national election for some time now and nobody highlights them. IDB/TIPP. Only thing is that in the last midterm they seem to wait until the very last minute to do a poll. Which is annoying from an anticipatory standpoint, but may be clever from an accuracy standpoint, as they wait until early voting actually starts before feilding questions so they can better understand and account for any shifts in voter profiles from the last election.
      In a country of over 330 mil people and so many pollsters only to have fair confidence in just one, which is a damn shame. But so be it.
      I expect it to drop by latest Monday, so let’s see what they say and how right they may turn out be.

    • @ al22, re. TikTok, the company owning TikTok, ByteDance, has close ties to Chinese Government. This is also the reason many companies have banned downloading the app to work devices and I haven’t wanted to have it on my personal devices. But, in case this effects content, I’d say it has influence on what one doesn’t see rather than what one sees. Chinese seem to have a different approach to information warfare that Russians. They seem to rely in controlling the narrative rather than changing it. Light entertainment still make most of the content on TikTok, and is used as a distraction.

      And, obviously, speaking of China’s motivation in influencing the US elections in specific, despite Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, Republican politicians tend to be more hawkish on China than Democrats, with Trump (and I’m certain many of his voters) being down right racist. Therefore, China does not have a similar incentive to post-Crimea occupation Russia meddle with political systems in West.

    • Oh yes, PLEASE say something nice OK.
      Mr. Moore is on my side and have all his books and movies.
      Maybe you could choose to read and watch his material.
      but no, just want to be as obnoxious as s-hole!!
      Chilling out in Seattle

  9. Well this looks good, from my perspective at least. If this is a “red wave” then there wouldn’t be a hint of positivity in the reading of these two. So I suspect Dems did well enough to hang on but the chaos from the “Deplorables” are causing the gloominess.
    Politically inclined Leo risings seem to have a finger on the pulse of their electorate. As imbecilic as Trump is, he appears to have an innate ability to read his ilk. I suspect Moore has a similar ability. He can gauge the pulse of the blue collar voter and see which way they’re leaning better than most pollsters or pundits. So more optimism for me.
    Thanks Marjorie.

    • And I left out the master political tactician that’s also a Leo rising. The indubitable Legend Nancy Pelosi.
      Way to piss her off by violently attacking her family MAGA nuts.

      • @Troy, re. Leo Rising, maybe I’ve lost something, but I think Trump has been suspiciously quiet lately, especially on some of the candidates he has endorsed. I feel he think the candidates he is quiet about are the ones he thinks have a good chance loosing, and doesn’t see Republicans prospectives good, over all. And, if Republicans won’t take at least House, look at him turning on current party leadership in seconds.

  10. We Democrats may not win big (if you go by the polls, betting markets, and forecasting models), but I do think we’ll at least keep the Senate – and maybe even pick up a seat or two.

    If we were to lose everything, then how on earth is 2023 expected to be such a horrible year for Trump? And why are Republicans like Ron DeSantis and Marjorie Taylor Greene expected to look so gloomy?

    I just don’t think the Republicans are going to be rewarded for striking down Roe vs Wade, threatening to cut Medicare and Social Security, and threatening to decide (for themselves) the outcomes of future elections.

    • Agreed. My biggest concern is that Media projections of a GOP win gives the GOP the tools to deny the election results if things don’t go their way.

  11. Although I haven’t been paying as close attention to US Elections as I did on some previous rounds, I don’t think that questioning conventional political thinking or polling is “hoping against odds” at this point in the US politics.

    However it turns, Moore and Obama are right about outcome being about engagement. How engaged voters are about not only national, but local issues. And say what you want about DNC, their strategists nailed it with Biden, seeing Florida as “lost” and relocating campaign efforts to states like Pennsylvania.

    • Also, I think another element many fail to capture are changes in people’s internet and social media use. I recently read TikTok has surpassed both Facebook and Twitter as an online news source for Americans. This is interesting, since TikTok algorithm is more similar to Youtube than the former two, creating even larger bubbles. I personally am not on TikTok, and couldn’t tell precisely what sort of bubbles are forming over there, but this could influence the way elections swing more than pundits (also not on TikTok) realize.

    • The problem is that the national Democrats (DNC) allowed the state parties atrophy before Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy.
      Then they ousted Howard Dean and have have left the state parties to their own devices since.

      If the DNC had continued to support state parties maybe the Democrat who is running a close race for the U.S. Senate in Iowa would have a change.

      I feel as if the Democrats want to lose because the DNC is filled with a lot of losers like Mary Beth Cahill who was the campaign manager for John Kerry’s ill-fated presidential campaign almost TWENTY years ago.

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