Germany – worst crisis since WW11 if Russian gas cut

 Germany, along with the EU, looks likely to suffer worse collateral damage from Putin’s attack on Ukraine than elsewhere given the ensuing energy crisis. The astrological jigsaw is now starting to fall into place. The Germany country chart with the economically disruptive tr Uranus conjunct the 8th house Pluto from mid this June onwards for a year, followed by a stressed, trapped Bundesbank chart in 2023/24 (see previous post 3 March 2022). As well as this May’s Lunar Eclipse casting a discouraging shadow over Europe (see post on Eclipses 16 April).

  German industrialists are warning of the worst crisis since the second world war with a complete paralysis of certain industry sectors if there is a total Russian gas embargo. Olaf Scholz has indicated a preference for a three year tailing off to avoid catastrophe but as Putin’s barbarity shows no signs of lessening that now looks less likely.

The EU has already imposed swingeing sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons. Coal is banned; oil could be next then gas. A full EU energy embargo would trigger a sharp recession in Germany, wiping out more than 400,000 jobs and forfeit €220bn in economic output in 2022 and 2023, equivalent to 6.5 per cent of GDP.

 Germany are in a fix since under Merkel nuclear power was phased out and  remaining coal-fired power stations given the chop, leaving the country over-dependent on Russia. Even after the Georgia invasion, Crimea annexation, Syrian intervention, Germany continued to expand its energy partnership with Russia.

 Some economists believe that a sudden supply cut-off would permanently damage the EU’s competitiveness and hit Germany and other member states harder than the US and elsewhere.

 The EU chart will have its key planets in the financial houses rattled severely by the Eclipses this year with an 8th house Taurus Moon –  tr Uranus square the 5th house (speculation) Venus from early May on and off into 2023; and a debilitating, undermining Solar Arc Neptune conjunct the Sun, exact within months. Tr Pluto conjunct the over-hopeful Jupiter/Neptune midpoint in 2023/24 tends to coincide with financial losses and that will be exacerbated by a blocked Solar Arc Pluto opposition the EU Moon and square Uranus in 2025. It’ll be a long haul of financial punishment, not improved by misguided policies since Jupiter Neptune tends not to be practical.


22 thoughts on “Germany – worst crisis since WW11 if Russian gas cut

  1. My apologies my previous post would have fitted better the Belligncat narrative.
    I agree that green policies are rather idealistic and not always grounded on what is possible in the short term, but green parties are quite young and not yet experienced in statecraft IMO. I was referring to something far deeper, the need to protect natural life.
    I agree that German energy policies seem to have lacked the foresight of forward planning by relying mainly on Russian gas.

  2. Update on the disastrous economic predictions: ARD network pressed Ministry on numbers they based their prediction on, and apparently, they could not quite explain the modelling used.

  3. I’m sympathetic to Green ideals and aims with the xeception of most of their energy policies, which are whackadoodle hippy air fairy shite that have (conveniently) relied on cheap Russian oil and gas to underpin them on the never-never. The German Greens seem to have very little grasp of geostrategic realities and they helped strongarm Merkel into throwing Germany’s nuclear power stations into the bin, in the misguided belief that renweable energy technologies could compensate for this (spoiler: they can’t, and aren’t going to be able to any time soon). Possibly the most stupidly naive people in European politics and that really is saying something. As soon as I saw a map of Germany’s gas supply pipeline network some years ago I realised that by ditching nuclear power they were playing right into Putin’s hands, and so events have proved. It seems that only the French have actually had the wherewithal over the years to grasp that in terms of keeping the lights on and the show on the road, nuclear power as the baseline for one’s energy supply is the only game in town. Sorry for the rant.

    • Germany’s decision to axe nuclear power generation while still mining and burning lignite to produce electricity suggests their commitment to fighting global warming never did run very deep. As a country more greenwashed than green.

      • It’s kinda irrelevant how sympathetic or not anyone is to ‘Green ideals’ when all CFOs start choosing Green technology and systems simply cos they’re the lowest whole of life cost, quickest to deliver, and most reliable. Renewables + storage is now already cheaper than any new generation, and getting competitive with continuing to run existing plant. Add geopolitical risk and carbon costs and it’s obvious it’s already all over for combustion; fuggetaboutit. It’s only the path dependency of the incumbent that means this stuff persists now, the tipping point is long past. Inertia basically. So it goes.

        Gas as a chemical feedstock, oil for asphalt etc, will continue longer, but substitutes for these are on the way too. As is coal free steel, and lower carbon cement. Price the externalities better and the transition will be faster. Europe does this better than North America and the rest of the Anglo-sphere, but still far from perfectly.

        There’s some super dodgy politics in Germany with Russian corruption and influence at the heart of it, my feeling (and reading of the astrology) is this crisis will snap that link, but there is likely quite a way to go yet. Realpolitik can be another word for corruption. The technology is there, but concentrated interests and bought and owned politicians need facing down somehow.

        cf Australia and big carbon there (will be the ‘Saudi Arabia of solar’ but has to get out from under the hugely corrupting influence incumbent coal and gas dirty money first).

  4. Marjorie et al
    I have been mulling over this contribution.
    It seems to me that some of the last posts have had an underlining thread connecting them, which is to control the world through geopolitical manoeuvrings, Halford Mackinder stated these aims quite clearly in 1914 “who rules the world island ie Eurasia commands the world”.
    Countries in the frontiers such as Ukraine, Pakistan, Yemen and so on are subjected to proxy wars. The 4th Post Industrial Revolution, the Great Reset, the abominable Transhumanism are only the next stage.
    People who try to see through it all wish to protect the connection with nature, our duty as custodians of the planet and all its creatures and human integrity including that of the human body, soul and spirit

  5. Yeah well, this should be, surely will be, the end of the previous political, economic, and energetic era. To call it a ‘catastrophe’ is attach way too strongly to the old and exhausted, and insufficiently to the new and rising. Germany still appears to be clinging to what’s already gone; Ostpolitik and the Russian fossil fuel based economy. The Energiewenger should have long been pivoted into decarbonising priority, delaying the nuclear shutdown to prioritise coal and gas first, but here we hit the inflexibility of German conservatism. True, it is important to honour agreements, but to persist with that once the facts change at some point just becomes self-harming stubbornness.

    There are plenty of experts arguing an abrupt shift away from FF while disruptive will also be stimulators, especially in new energy industries. Meh, industry always faces the need for reinvention, but also always fears it a potential loss. Uranus -> Pluto urges change, big fundamental change. Get ready to rip that plaster off; it can always be as much Brave New World as destruction of the old, depending on how long your cling to what is going and gone.

    A big risk to Germany here is reputational; Italy and Poland are offering more leadership in EU than France and Germany right now, and on an existential issue! Perhaps this is a good thing, as those two have long bullied the south and east often to the detriment of the whole. I see a new and better balanced EU possible here; no UK distraction, morally weakened Germany, rising southern and eastern states, with a rebuilding Ukraine as the defining new member.

    Fascinating. Get moving Germany.

    • Yes! I agree. A great opportunity for Germany to innovate its industry and a shift in the balance of power within the EU. I’m all for it. As long as Ukraine gets to remain in control of its lithium and rare earth metal sources (which I have only just realised is the real reason for Putin’s attack), it could be poised to become a mighty rich country as these elements are needed in many modern technologies. The price of lithium (think batteries) has increased by 600% in the past year.

  6. “German industrialists are warning of the worst crisis since the second world war with a complete paralysis of certain industry sectors if there is a total Russian gas embargo.”

    Quite frankly, this sounds very melodramatic of them. I have hard time believing any serious manufacturing business does not have an alternative energy source lined up just in case of sudden market distruption. Especially given energy prices have been up recently. Obviously, as whole, German energy consumption is enormous, and this will make prices of available energy sky rocket, cutting to their margin. But what I think they are using these scare tactics also to lobby for keep the still existing German nuclear plants running – I think Scholtz’s Government still wants to “phase out” in 2022. Maybe even pilot some new nuclear technology.

    But obviously, keep in shape for Ukrainian reconstruction, which I think will happen through EU starting from 2023/24 I’d say.

    • Fusion here in the US was touted as the end-all savior back in the mid 1960’s. I remember hearing a lecture in 5th grade about the imminent emergence of nuclear fusion. Well, still waiting in the bread line! 😉

    • @Sounh, she blew it yesterday night. French people love good debate and good debaters, which has arguably landed them with a string of horrible Presidents. But she was weak, Manu got some punches, so he should carry this. Or if she miraculously win, there are a couple of court cases that definitely will blow her out in a year or two, since France is not the US and judges are not political nominees, and they love nothing more than getting a prez out on a corruption case.

        • @Sounh, yes, in two latest polls, done after the debate, Macron is polling at circa +15 with those intending to vote.

          But he too is strangely fixed with the idea of “talking” to Putin, given he is not stupid. Maybe due to his 29′ Sagittarius Sun/Mercury (Retrograde), I think he is driven by genuine optimism that may become a blind spot.

  7. Thank you, Marjorie. I’ve been reading your previous posts and it’s clear that the astrology shows a severe impact on Germany and in particular her powerhouse financial 8th house Taurus Pluto as well as Mercury in Capricorn, currently facing its meeting with Pluto at the final degree of Capricorn – there is something very ‘last minute’ about that transit, I feel.

    I see today that Italy has signed an agreement with Angola to reduce dependence on Russian gas supply and earlier this week, an agreement with Algeria. But the dependence on wheat and grain supplied by Ukraine goes beyond the EU, since Egypt, Ethiopia and Yemen are heavily reliant, thus in countries already war-torn such as Yemen the impact could be catastrophic.

    I notice that Olaf Scholz’s swearing-in chart will be hit by the May 16 lunar eclipse, since Mars is at 26 Scorpio.

    • “I notice that Olaf Scholz’s swearing-in chart will be hit by the May 16 lunar eclipse, since Mars is at 26 Scorpio.”

      @Virgoflake, he is taking heat for his position from Parliament, not even his own party seems to understand reasons for not helping Ukraine with heavy artillery they need.

      In fact, todayI’ve seen bets going round on whether Johnson, Scholz or Putin is the first to fall, given it hasn’t been a good day for any of them. My bet is still BoJo, but Scholtz may not be far behind.

  8. Was thinking the other day, Merkel stepped down in December just at the right time before it all blew up. Just like Tony Blair stepped out in 2007, just before the Financial Crashing began.

    (I’m not trying to score any political points or make comment about their leaderships, just noting the good timing)

    • Good timing yes, but will tarnish her & her party’s reputation. The German press summed it up accordingly: “War in Ukraine: Putin’s guilt and Merkel’s contribution” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, March 18) and “The legacy of Merkel’s lax Russian policy: A few boycotts but nothing more” (Der Spiegel, March 19).

    • Yes, it will be interesting to know how her chart looks for the coming years. It was expected that she will take up a major EU position in the future.

      On a non-astrological note, Blair was just riding the economic wave, and don’t think he could have made a massive difference to the happenings of 2008.

      Whereas Germany (not just Merkel) was willfully blind to the consequences of what it was doing. And Merkel rode the popularity wave – shutting down nuclear and coal-fired plants, and took the easy path of going along with the Germans empathetic to Russian interests instead of considering the risks of being heavily dependent on a single source for its energy security. Given the nature of the coalition governments, many major policies are agreed upon as part of the coalition deal and hence do not come for serious debate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nordstream 2 had been part of such agreements. Trump made noise about Germany’s contribution(or lack of) to NATO and heavy reliance on Russian gas. Given his credibility, no one took it seriously.

      back to astrology, probably things worked that way , in preparation for what is coming now!!

      • “Trump made noise about Germany’s contribution(or lack of) to NATO and heavy reliance on Russian gas. Given his credibility, no one took it seriously.”

        Objection, there were plenty of people making noise about both issues, especially North Stream II security aspect. These were certainly quite popular talking points for Washington National Security. Even some Obama Administration officials – starting from Joe Biden, who, after all, was Senator for over almost two decades during Cold War – raised concern. If anything, Trump’s rants helped to frame these as “American First” partisan issue aimed to hurt Transatlantic collaboration – exactly what Putin wanted to happen.

        The sad truth, though, is that too few decision makers wanted to recognize Putin’s Russia for what it became in the 2010’s – increasingly hostile autocracy, but that’s another story.

      • “I notice that Olaf Scholz’s swearing-in chart will be hit by the May 16 lunar eclipse, since Mars is at 26 Scorpio.”

        @Virgoflake, he is taking heat for his position from Parliament, not even his own party seems to understand reasons for not helping Ukraine with heavy artillery they need.

        In fact, todayI’ve seen bets going round on whether Johnson, Scholz or Putin is the first to fall, given it hasn’t been a good day for any of them. My bet is still BoJo, but Scholtz may not be far behind.

    • @GnarlyDude, well, we all suffered from covid-19 fatigue by late 2021, imagine having led country through it, but I think Russia actually invaded Ukraine now also because Merkel stepped down. You may think what ever you think about her energy policy, but she personally loathed Putin, and was, maybe because of that, one of the few World Leaders he recognized as an equal. When she was gone, Putin thought Europe would be a “piece if cake”, he definitely did not expect almost everybody to rally behind Ukraine.

      I think there were some almost serenidipitous happenings, too. For instance, Mario Draghi becoming Italian PM. As much as I liked Giuseppe Conte for his handling of Covid-19 crises, Draghi seems to have a deep, emotional bound to Ukraine, which calls him to use his expertise to full. I also think having Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson taking up as PMs in Finland and Sweden respectably is important. I’m 110 percent sure Marin’s precessor Antti Rinne would have come around on NATO the way she did in February 24th, because of his trade union/worker background as well. Finnish PM during Winter War, Väinö Tanner, was, after all, a Social Democrat with a trade union background, and there’s a tradition for these sort of things. But I honestly think it’s due to good, personal relationship Marin and Andersson share that Sweden is now coming around too, and it’s likely we’ll submit a joint application by mid-May (Swedish King and Finnish President are to meet then, too).

      So, even if Putin got it right with Scholtz, many things got bad for him in the past 2 years or so.

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