Reality bites as support for Brexit has fallen to a record low of 32% as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt cautiously puts a toe in the waters of conciliation suggesting in time the trade barriers which have been erected post-2016 could be substantially removed while the UK still remains outside the single market. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent fiscal watchdog, said this week that the latest evidence showed Brexit had had “a significant adverse effect on UK trade”, cutting trade volumes and relationships between British and EU companies. And Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank added: “Very clearly Brexit was an economic own goal. Economically speaking that has been very bad news indeed.”
The economic impact of Brexit remains a taboo for the main UK political parties and the hardcore Brexiteers in the Tory Party (the ERG group, Hannan, Frost etc) would be incensed at any such shift. But this latest softening of attitude from No 10 might well be the trigger for a long-overdue split within the Tory Party, hiving off the extreme anti-EU faction.
Whether or not the EU would be amenable even in the face of their own monumental economic problems to contemplate a pitch-n-patch ad hoc arrangement with the UK is another matter.
The EU/UK relationship chart does show some signs of mellowing over the next few months but will run into shocks and blocks from April 2023, more so July onwards; with a chilly mood in 2024. It may be 2025/26/27 before there is a significant shift onto a new footing.
The Tory Party, 9 May 1912 party chart is facing a white knuckle ride over the next three years with a cage-rattling tr Uranus conjunct the Sun now and repeating early 2023; and a high-tension, crockery-throwing tr Uranus conjunct the Saturn from July 2023 into 2024 – as the old guard clashes with the forces for reform. That division will come to a head by 2025 when the Solar Arc Uranus is conjunct the Tory Party Saturn.
Through 2023/24 with tr Neptune square the Pluto there is a sense of Tory influence being undermined. The back-to-the-drawing-board for a complete rethink will come in 2025 with tr Pluto conjunct the Uranus.
The anti-EU European Research Group (ERG) has exerted considerable pressure within the Tory Party since it was formed in July 1993 through the Maastricht negotiations. There is no exact date but Pluto was in Scorpio which was then opposition the Tory Party Sun and Saturn in Taurus setting the scene for a mighty power struggle. And the highly-strung (immune to rational argument) Uranus Neptune in Capricorn was also in place opposition the Tory Party Mars Neptune in Cancer. When the Brexit referendum was held in 2016 tr Pluto in Capricorn square tr Uranus in Aries had been pounding away at the Tory Party Mars Neptune so it is a sensitive point – though there is nothing up and coming until 2027/28 to affect it.
Of the die-hard Brexiteers David Frost looks panicky and disappointed through 2023; and Daniel Hannan looks edgy in 2024. Intriguingly Frost, Hannan and Boris all have strong Jupiter Neptune aspects = over hopeful and according to Ebertin can attract scandal through instability. Farage is both upbeat and downcast – but he’d be pleased at anything that brought him back into the ring to fight.
Political attitudes may change over the sobering three years of financial hardship ahead – on both sides of the channel – so by 2027 a different set of arrangements on trade may be possible.
21 thoughts on “Brexit – first small steps towards a middle ground”
Useful piece by Robert Shrimsley in the FT (behind paywall).
On Brexit ultras screaming betrayal – “ For the ideologues who play to the grassroots gallery, practicality and economics always rank below purity of principle.”
Nor are the polls as clear as some imagine. Only a third support rejoining the single market. Tony Blair has concluded that Brexit “will not be undone under this generation of political leadership”.
2025 when the Brexit trade deal is up for review – “a quiet drive for incremental changes may be the best hope of easing the economic damage.
Thanks Marjorie – very interesting. I think the Brexit vote was so much about immigration, and misperceptions around free movement, plus resentment towards various EU regulations that remain on the statute books (for now). Certainly plenty of Neptune involved one way or another.
Maybe there’s a theme? Intrigued to see that support for an independent Catalonia is said to be waning, five years on from their ‘illegal’ referendum. Also all the renewed argy-bargy about Scotland’s referendum hopes yesterday. There are talks, conflicts, and arguments about reunification in Cyprus flaring up again in recent months. And Ireland of course. Three troubled islands. What tribal creatures we are!
And re Brexit etc….be interesting to see whether Pluto in Aquarius affects the 1957 Treat of Rome chart. A Moon at 2 Aquarius opposing Uranus 2 Leo square Neptune at 1 Scorpio could be very sensitive to that transit.
I meant Treaty of Rome!
Also the sale of council houses to tenants, unfortunately the local authorities never replaced them and the existing stock did not grow to meet current needs, it was part of her vision to have a prosperous, property owning society, a dream which did not come about.
I believe local authorities were banned from using the money from the sale of council houses to build more social housing – sadly
“The Tory Party, 9 May 1912 party chart is facing a white knuckle ride over the next three years with a cage-rattling tr Uranus conjunct the Sun now and repeating early 2023; and a high-tension, crockery-throwing tr Uranus conjunct the Saturn from July 2023 into 2024 – as the old guard clashes with the forces for reform”
What’s interesting, too, is Rishi Sunak’s own Taurus Sun 21 Taurus and Mercury 20 Taurus, opposing Uranus 23 Scorpio, and trine Saturn at 20 Virgo. All kicking off at the same time as the Tory Party’s chart.
I looked at the rather stark and brooding chart for Maastricht – 1 November 1993. This, too, has significant Uranian disruption 2023,24,25. It has Mercury 19 Scorpio, Pluto conjunct Mars 24 Scorpio (eek!), Moon 24 Taurus, and Saturn 23 Aquarius – about to have its return.
The Moon’s Nodes (the people? the purpose?) in the Treaty of Rome chart are 20 Scorpio/Taurus. It also has Uranus at 2 Leo, opposed by transiting Pluto in Aquarius, building up next year and exact by the end of January, 2025. At the very least, that looks like a shake-up for the founding principles of what was then a new post-war Europe. I think something fresh will eventually emerge, as you suggest here Marjorie. And one way or another, the UK will be able to make new arrangements and alliances in Europe.
In April 2024, transiting Jupiter and transiting Uranus will both be at 22 Taurus, conjunct Sunak’s Sun, as well as conjunct the Tory party Sun and Saturn.
I expect that’s when they’ll have the election
The Conservative party will reap some old fashioned Saturnian karma if the lies and deceptions they promoted before and during the Brexit campaign end up destroying them. We all saw naked in tooth and claw the ineptitude, corruption and dishonesty of the Johnson cabinet and their lickspittles in the media over the last few years. Those truly dreadful people are/were in charge of post Brexit UK and the welfare of our people and look where we are…Pluto out of Capricorn and let’s hope for better to come eventually
This ties in with what I remember many astrologers were saying pre-referendum, that the astrology indicated a big muddle over some years, but that in the end things would turn out sort of the same. Britain would, however, have a different way of being, in their system of government, monarchy etc.
Brexit has severely disrupted my life, which is probably why I don’t want to hear about it, so if some sort of rapprochement is coming, all to the good. Whatever the arguments for or against, why anyone ever thought leaving would be easy, is beyond my understanding.
Anything that diminishes the ERG has my support.
A tiny glimmer of hope for the future.
Perhaps the eclipse exactly coinciding with Sunak’s assumption of office as PM signifies the death knell of the British Conservative party.
If he does actually do this – that is a return to the EU by stealth, and effectively negating the results of the 2016 referendum and years and years and years of political promises and wrangling, there seems little reason for Brexit inclined voters – who happen to be the majority of conservative voters to vote for that party again.
A right wing alternative party, Reform UK, which is basically what conservative voters want the conservative party to be, is waiting in the wings …….
I agree. Sunak has already started doing some ‘un- Conservative’ things like tax hikes, rise in benefits and pensions in line with inflation which is nothing but Universal basic income. The die hard Tories are already labelling him as socialist.
There were reports in The independent that Sunak invited Gordon Brown for advice before the budget. Tories don’t look very happy with his approach but they will stick with him because the alternative is General election.
The Sunak/Hunt budget was a copy of Margaret Thatcher’s 1981 budget where she froze all personal allowances, raised fuel duty and other taxes, raised VAT and put windfall taxes on oil and the banks.
She was trying to squeeze inflation out of the system with the tax hikes, and pay down the national debt with her windfall taxes.
It was very unpopular: Tory MPs walked out during the budget speech in protest at the tax hikes. 364 economists wrote to the Times to say it wouldn’t work and Tories went to third place in the polls.
The budget worked – inflation went from 15% in 1981 to 4.5% in 1983 (the first time it had been that low since 1968). Grateful voters re-elected her.
Sunak too is hoping that his tax rises squeeze inflation. Britain is the only developed economy raising taxes, so it will be interesting to see if Maggie’s Medicine works again.
But the price of squeezing out inflation from the British economy was massive unemployment – which approached four million persons out of work.
Really, there is no ‘economic genius’ in squeezing the life out of an economy to tame inflation, anyone can do it, but there is a terrible price to be paid by people, other people, whom politicians do not personally know, and could not give a damn about.
My understanding/ experience was that ‘grateful’ voters re-elected her because of the Falklands War.
The SDP/Liberal alliance split the anti Tory vote.
Jonathan – I looked up Reform UK, and today is it’s ‘birthday’! 23 November 2018. Sun conjunct Jupiter in Sagittarius, square Mars in Pisces – plenty of energy, but recklessness/hot headedness could send them crashing I think. Reform was also founded with Mercury retrograde in Sagittarius, square Neptune in Pisces, also retrograde. So, there’s the idealistic ‘dream’, or quasi-religious intellectual beliefs of the group. Saturn transiting in Pisces soon may not do them any favours.
Thanks Marjorie for bringing your clarity to the economic mess that is Brexit. As you say:
“Political attitudes may change over the sobering three years of financial hardship ahead – on both sides of the channel – so by 2027 a different set of arrangements on trade may be possible.”
Really, whatever one’s views on Brexit as some kind of ideal, pragmatism says it is ridiculous.
One thing I thought about was the European Political Community (EPC), a talking shop founded by Macron. It’s first ‘get together’ was in Prague, 6th October, 2022. It involves 44 nations. While it isn’t the EU, it may perhaps be a helpful influence or a hint of other alliances in the future. The EPC, Treaty of Rome, and the Tory Party all have Moon in Aquarius – perhaps some kind of accord is hinted at there? EPC and Treaty of Rome have Mars in Gemini.
Comparing it with the Treaty of Rome, 25th March, 1957, and the UK 1801 is interesting.
The EPC 25 Virgo Mercury, in a t-square with Mars in Gemini and Neptune in Pisces, connects with the Treaty of Rome’s Jupiter at 25 Virgo. It’s Saturn square Uranus forms a t-square with UK 18 Scorpio Neptune.
A group of planets that will be sensitive to Pluto’s arrival and early journey in Aquarius are:
EPC Jupiter 2 Aries
Treaty of Rome Uranus 2 Leo, Neptune 1 Scorpio, Moon 2 Aquarius
UK Jupiter 1 Leo, UK Uranus 1 Libra
These are also in line for the Saturn in Aries, Uranus in Gemini, Neptune in Aries, and Pluto in Aquarius firecracker line-up of 2025.
There are more links than these between the charts, not all of them easy of course. But the UK is due a Nodal return in 2024, which could energise thoughts of change, with UK Nodes in the 7th house of partnerships.
Could you also include the Labour Party chart please, as it is almost certainly that it will be Labour leading the next government post 2024/5, if not forming it outright?
As an aside, a recent Westminster vote intent opinion poll suggested a drastic fall for the Greens, from 8% to 3%, with them likely losing their only MP at Westminster at the next election. Some have blamed it on the Just Stop Oil protests, which according to some, have discredited the environmental movement.
I think it is just that public opinion is coalescing behind Labour forming the next government and I think (non-astrologically) that it will win a Blair style landslide.
Thank you Marjorie for the post. I was about to type the same question after reading the article in The Times newspaper.
Will Sunak be able to achieve any deal with EU?
I did some sleuthing and managed to find the approximate time of birth for Rishi Sunak from the videos of the well known Indian astrologer, Acharya Salil. It’s around 14:40. He made some accurate predictions about Sunak in the last leadership election.
What do you think?
I remember you said the Eu chart was very fixed so IMO it was never going to be a very good negotiating partner. I notice that Rishi got critised for saying to Joe Biden things would be sorted for Joe’s visit to Northern Ireland next year. Do you see any improvements for the people of Northern Ireland
Hi Meant to do Ireland/NI today but alas life got in the way. Tomorrow ……..