Scotland independence – try again, same result

Nicola Sturgeon has cranked up the rhetoric about a second Scottish independence referendum being inevitable despite the SNP not having won an outright majority in the recent elections.  They did well but could not manage the final hurdle. Her estimation was for it to be held in late 2023 though it will require a Westminster sign off which is unlikely to happen, setting the scene for a potential court battle.

   Sturgeon, 19 July 1970 3.15 pm Irvine, Scotland, is in for the fight of her life with tr Pluto continuing to oppose her Cancer Sun this year and next and picking up the pushily confident tr Pluto square her Jupiter from early 2022 to late 2023. But given that her Sun is close to her flamboyant Mars in Leo she’s also picking up the frustrated, enraged and trapped tr Pluto opposition her Sun/Mars midpoint from early 2022 to late 2023; and worse a total road-block of tr Pluto opposition her Mars from early 2023 till late 2024.

  In addition she has a cluster of less helpful influences on her chart: tr Neptune undermining her power/influence in opposition to her Pluto in 2022/23; a jolting, high-tension tr Uranus conjunct her Saturn in 2023 and a sharp change of direction from tr Uranus square her Midheaven also in 2023.

   The SNP was formed in 1933/34 when the Uranus in Aries square Pluto in Cancer was in place, mirroring the influences in place over the 2014 independence referendum which the nationalist lost on a 45/55% vote. There was also a rise in SNP successes in the 1970s when the Uranus Pluto conjunction in Virgo was in place. But there is nothing similar in the near future, indeed before the 2040s.

  What is coming up is tr Uranus conjunct the England Scotland Act of Union 1707 Sun and square the Pluto Jupiter in 2023/24 which may lead to further devolution rather than a split. Though these influences have been round before over four centuries so may only cause a ripple. That does, however, coincide with tr Uranus square the UK 11th house Saturn which could suggest changes in the national legislature (parliament).

   I can’t see independence happening – not on Sturgeon’s astrology or the other charts – and the economic arguments are even less appealing than they were in 2014.

36 thoughts on “Scotland independence – try again, same result

  1. Something that has occurred to me which may or may not prove to be correct is how things are tying in to the Saturn/Pluto cycle.

    The Saturn/Pluto conjunction of 1914 saw WW1 kick off which meant Irish Home Rule was sidelined despite being passed by Parliament. The opening square of the Saturn/Pluto cycle in 1922 (ish) saw the Republic of Ireland gain independence.

    The next Saturn/Pluto conjunction in 1947 saw the independence of India granted – the crown jewel and keystone of the British Empire. (Two years later the Irish Republic also ceased being a Dominion and left the Commonwealth). The illusion of Imperial grandeur persisted for a while until the opening Saturn/Pluto square in the mid-50s which coincided with Suez and the definitive moment when the Empire was truly over (interestingly, this also occurred on the Pluto Return of the 1707 chart for the Union) – by 1962 many former colonies were either independent or moving in that direction rapidly.

    Other comparisons can be found in the 1982 Saturn/Pluto conjunction (which did not do much to the UK constitutionally) – with hindsight the death of Brezhnev that year marked the beginning of the end for the Eastern Bloc and the USSR itself. By the time of the opening square of the cycle in the early to mid 90s, the Iron Curtain was a memory, Germany reunified and the USSR, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia had all disintegrated. (Of course, the USSR had a Pluto/Sun transit during this period too).

    If one feels like drawing parallels, the UK leaving the EU on the 2020 Saturn/Pluto conjunction may not at first result in Scottish/Welsh independence or Irish unification for some years. But by the time of the opening square of the cycle in 2028, things may well be in motion and moving towards something in this area. It should be noted that Pluto shifts into Aquarius in a few years but will I think still be transiting the UK’s 4th house which is a fairly profound transit. If the energies are used positively it may be reform and recalibration of the arrangements of the Union can be carried out instead. Bear in mind that the USSR let go of the Eastern Bloc and Baltic states but its dissolution in 1991 was not a certainty – Gorbachev came close to pushing through reforms that would have reinvented the Soviet Union as a looser federation.

    Obviously much of this is conjecture, but it will be interesting to see how things play out – hopefully constructively.

  2. I would just like to point out that most Tory Prime Ministers do call for a
    general election. I believe it took Gordon Brown three years to do the same. While they can wait till the next one to come about, it does show a certain reluctance and mistrust of of the electorate. Much good it did him!

    • Wouldn’t *that* chart – the announcement of the Hartlepool result, be useful in understanding the whole UK/EU Brexit debacle?

    • Yes Hartlepool it was really depressing to see that some voters blamed their Labour MP for the closure of their hospital, which was actually implemented by a Conservative government! On such a lack of understanding the country’s future is decided. Whatever happens in the referendum l wish the people of Scotland well.

  3. I cannot see the EU as being anything but a bully to Scotland. They won’t be allowed to do anything that they ask for. The only way that Scotland could truly be independent is to be a tax haven. And it would be doubtful if that could support the welfare state that has been customary. Far better to fight the UK government for a better deal. And generally they have been pretty successful at that!

    • Maybe the answer is that the UK will become more federal, with English devolution on a par with the other members, together with even more devolved powers. A face saving best of both worlds formula- that holds us together in something that feels more equal and is less Westminster focused.

    • Lol you mean like Westminster “allows”
      Scotland. By bully do you mean the way the EU bullied Ireland during the Brexit negotiations (hint: it didn’t) Do you mean that cooperation between Westminster and the devolved nations over Brexit – you mean like the ruin of our fishing and food industry. Your desire to narrow Scotland down to a “welfare state” says it all really. I wonder will they agree to take trident elsewhere and put it close to an English city like it is to Glasgow? If they can find a place suitable I’m sure the population won’t have an issue with that. Me personally I can’t quite work out why if Scotland is so reliant on “handouts” etc Westminster wants to keep us – why don’t they just let us go?

      • Oh can it Ronnie. The poor victimised, woe is me, trodden under heel Scot is an embarrassment. And the think-as-I-do, speak-as-I-do or I’ll silence you approach is not just a bore, it’s fascist. This is an international site which comments on countries all over the globe. Detachment can bring clarity.
        Much that you blame on Westminster’s faults which are admittedly legion has been under the control of Holyrood for the past two decades. Take some responsibility.

        • Scotland can’t blame Westminster as they have thier own budget now and sets its own and has done for years. Like thier own education system and haven’t yet SNP done well ? as they took one the best education system – ruined it and filled thier children full of bile . I love Scotland and would hate to see the union split. I do get fed up with Scottish resentment. Like Brexit if Scotland go alone – then their Parliament will finally have to accept responsibility as well as the SNP. It’s easy to blame the English for everything like British MPs who hid behind EU law and they too will have no where to hide soon. Scotland is such a fantastic country that should celebrate its brilliance rather than carry a resentful chip on its shoulder.
          Anyone who doesn’t understand Hartlepool isn’t listening to people as if they had Brexit would never have happened

      • “EU bullied Ireland during the Brexit negotiations(hint: it didn’t)”
        It didnt then .. Just bullied UK .. But EU bullying Ireland now to change their tax rules in return for the Covid Recovery Fund (ironically, Ireland will be a net contributor to the fund).

        “Do you mean that cooperation between Westminster and the devolved nations over Brexit ”
        I am not happy that it was not a cross party and cross nation engagement. But, there was no sign of constructive engagement by Labour/LibDem/SNP or Scotland. All actions were just to thwart Brexit, and turn down the result of the referendum. If you are thinking about Ireland’s engagement in Brexit, it appears to be purely a way to delay/overrule Brexit. Also check if Ireland did influence the direction rather than being a mouthpiece of EU. The Brexit support fund which Ireland was promised is at a risk of being reduced too.

        “Your desire to narrow Scotland down to a “welfare state” says it all really.”

        It may be harsh .. but numbers show Scotland spends more per head than rest of UK and does receive more from the public purse than it contributes. But doesnt mean Scotland cannot be independent and better financially – but it is not positive based on the current situation.

        “I can’t quite work out why if Scotland is so reliant on “handouts” etc Westminster wants to keep us – why don’t they just let us go?”

        From my perspective, England and Scotland together have been better than sum of the individual parts. That doesnt change the fact that Scotland is reliant on “Westminster handouts”. Personally I wouldnt call it handouts, but the usual distribution of wealth and tax money that happens within a country. Even sensible people talk about “handouts” when Nationalists try to say Scottish contribution is higher than they receive (may have been true during the oil boom) . Scotland separating from UK is not going to make England richer. And no doubt, will have an impact of UK’s standing and influence in the world stage (trident is a good example). And England and Scotlands economies and societies are so intertwined, splitting is not easy. So, people who think with both heart and brain don’t would like the current setup to continue.

        For every argument and practicality of Scotland-England split, think of Brexit arguments and realities during and after the deal negotiations. It is mostly the same – just 10 times bigger.

        Doesnt mean Scotland should not or cannot be independent, but there cannot be a referendum every few years, but with longer gaps.

    • I never understood the argument that Scotland should be independent yet still be a part of the unelected EU. It doesn’t make sense. And there is too much dependence on welfare. And yes, I am Scottish.

        • With 10% vote in UK, according to the Nats, Scotland lacks influence. In EU, Scotland will have only 1% of the votes. What influence will Scotland have?
          Veto powers are also being reduced within EU, in favour of qualified majority votes. So, the influence will be much smaller than within UK.

          Yes, there are European elections and parliament. The parliament does not have much powers (though I admit there is push for more powers). So the democratic influence Scotland will have in EU will be much smaller. Ironically, if EU becomes more democratic, Scotland’s influence will be smaller. Imagine, with 10% of votes, the government elected in Westminister, is often argued , is not what Scotland voted for. With 1% of votes, what are the chances “EU government” will be what Scotland votes for.

          More federalism within UK will be a better bet for Scotland, Wales and NI, and of course, England. Rather than being a much smaller fish in the EU. Of course, given the size of the population and economy, England will dominate. Just like Germany and France dominate in EU.

          • So why don’t we have a new GE every time the conservative party has a new leader .
            Because MPs or party members do that. So.we don’t directly elect the PM either

          • @silver Darling
            If Scotland is interested in EU type of democracy, it is worrying.

            Support for EU does not have to be blind. There should not be any issue critcizing what is not right.

  4. The 2014 referendum cost just under £16 million – another one this soon is a monumental distraction. The SNP would be better employed fixing the numerous internal problems – education, health, drug deaths, police etc.

    • Drug deaths is truly a tragedy. Did you know that countries who treat drug crime etc as a public health issue rather than criminal one are more successful at lowering drug deaths? Did you know that Scotland, despite repeated requests to Westminster, is not “allowed” to do this ?

      • Scotland has treated drugs misuse as a public health issue since 2016. It is overseen by the Minister for Public Health in Scotland and is not under the Minister of Justice.

        • I’m afraid you are uninformed – Scotland is now allowed to pursue certain drug policies (eg injection rooms) because it comes under Westminster remit

    • In the scheme of things, £16 million isn’t big money.
      Especially when you compare it to the ‘Barnet formula’ subsidies Scotland gets, or even the massive ‘austerity’ cuts the EU will *surely* demand of the Scots.

  5. The electoral system at Holyrood is specifically designed to prevent a majority .There were Lab/ Lib coalitions in the early days.
    To be one seat short of that majority is still an incredible fest.
    With both the SNP and the independence supporting Greens increasing their number of seats the case for having a second independence referendum is unanswerable.
    Of course people can then debate the.merits of independence vs the merits of staying with Westminster rule.
    Thats democracy

    • Yes …. well said. worth having a referendum every two years so the people can exercise their democratic choice of independence vs being part of the UK.

  6. What a mess, and Boris is the last person to take it on. No one should be surprised, this was always likely to come about if ‘leave’ won. His Eton ways aren’t the way to bring the Scots onboard to stay. I think the clever money is on letting it go ahead on the basis that the majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU and Brexit has changed all that, and then put pressure on the SNP to explain currency/EU membership/deficit/Barnett Formula etc, etc – maybe the frustration and rage you see is actually having to have a referendum she doesn’t think she will win. I think if the UK Govt is heavy handed it will harden attitudes north of the border.

    • What if Scotland votes to stay in UK again, and then in 2 years time some other circumstance changes ? Will there be a demand for another vote ?

      Also, if after voting for and separating, if the circumstances change in 2 years, what to do ?

      2014 vote economic case was based on the high price of oil. Now that is no longer true. Based on that, one could argue the circumstances have changed and it is for worse, and so not point in having a vote. If EU/Brexit is what the change in circumstance is, what will happen if Scotland is not let into the EU after independence for a decade or two ? Here, the case for independence has changed after the independence vote.

      You have to accept the fact that the circumstances will change every few years (and just like Brexit, the promises made by SNP on the sort of relationship with UK or EU is not SNP’s dream alone), and having a referendum every time it changes is not good for Scotland or the UK. It happened in 2014, and 2022/23 is too soon for another. Of course, if we had gone with SNP’s demands, we could have had another one in 2015.

      • What other country do you know that has got its independence and when it goes through difficulties says: “oh independence was a mistake – we change our mind” none nada so your point is absurd.

        • It happens. Germany, South Vietnam, Spain to name a few. Norway, Sweden, Denmark have all been in & out of unification. Various US states, notably Texas. Also… don’t mean to be too provocative, but arguably Scotland if you go back enough years.

          • What country did Spain gain independence from? My goodness you are certainly going back through the centuries. I don’t mean to Be provocative but what country of the British Empire has asked to be returned to British rule?

        • What other country do you know that has got its independence and when it goes through difficulties says: “oh independence was a mistake – we change our mind” none nada so your point is absurd.

          That is exactly my point. Circumstances do change every few years … And you cannot keep changing minds and keep voting … I dont say there should not be another vote … but may be after 20 years …

          And Scottish independence is very different from most other countries independence. Scotland is not a colony. It is part of a bigger political unit and has democratic clout of running the country in proportion to the population.
          If Scotland joins the EU, I wonder how they will come to terms with even lesser cloud they will have. UK is becoming less centralised … whereas EU is trying to be more centralised. So even if Scotland joins in say 5 years time, it is likely to be more centralised, and so less clout and influence.

          Given SNP is so much in support of people power, they should promise a referendum on joining the EU as part of the Indyref.

          • I’m always fascinated by people who do not live in Scotland having so much opinions on what’s best for it. Scotland would have more say within Europe than it does currently in the Uk – look to the chaotic Brexit negotiations for proof of that and then compare it to Ireland. Scotland may well give its people the opportunity to vote – nothing is off the table at this point. But why do you think that Westminster is better placed to decide Scotland”s future than the people who live there. Where do you live? Really if it’s not Scotland it has nothing to do with you.

          • @Ronnie. Well, that’s not quite true is it? No man is an island, even if you live on one!
            Those living in the UK, will be be directly affected because of intertwined defence, constitutional, financial, social, economic, health issues.
            And that’s without the complications of joining the EU.
            A hard border is the least of it.
            If you found Brexit negotiations chaotic after just 43 years of membership, how easy do you think unravelling 600+ years will be ?
            For all that, if Scotland decides on full independence, the Scottish people are certainly capable of making a go of it. But the price will be high, as it always is with game changing decisions.
            As the rest of the UK will also be paying too, I think it’s entirely reasonable for them to have and express their views.

          • “I’m always fascinated by people who do not live in Scotland having so much opinions on what’s best for it. Scotland would have more say within Europe than it does currently in the Uk – look to the chaotic Brexit negotiations for proof of that and then compare it to Ireland. Scotland may well give its people the opportunity to vote – nothing is off the table at this point. But why do you think that Westminster is better placed to decide Scotland”s future than the people who live there. Where do you live? Really if it’s not Scotland it has nothing to do with you.”

            Nothing upto you is something you say when you are just emotionally invested in something and do not want to hear anything different than your opinion.

            I dont live in Scotland but I live elsewhere in UK. So, Scotland being in UK or separating out does impact me. So, I do not see why I should not have an opinion. Oh .. I do not live in USA or intend to at any time. But I have opinion on Trump and Biden presidency. I do not live in Ukraine, but have opinion on Russian occupation of Crimea.

            Ireland was used as a way to block Brexit or make a bad deal for UK..So, it appeared Ireland was given a huge say. Do you remember what happened in the vaccine export row. Though it was only for a few hours, EU commission took a decision to suspend the NI protocol without discussing with Ireland. And now for the EU Covid recovery fund, Ireland is pressured to increase the Corporation Tax to receive the fund. Corporation tax is not in EU’s remit, nor is Ireland acting illegally (so rule of law does not apply). EU is using the recovery fund to increase its powers behind the scenes. You can have an issue with low Irish tax, but the way to set it right cannot be this. Influence for Scotland in EU being bigger than within UK’s is a myth in my opinion ( I wouldn’t shout you down if you have a different opinion) – similar to what Brexiters have/had about UK’s influence in the world outside EU. UK becoming more federal is an example of the influence Scotland has on the overall governance of the UK. UK will fedaralise further whereas EU will centralise. And you can see the push for both of them happening in front of your eyes, if you look out for. Your interpretation could ofcourse differ.

            Chatoic brexit negotiations and the final deal is another thing which you can see happening if Scotland votes for independence. Just like Leave campaign promises during the Brexit referendum, SNP promises will be rosy and one sided. Just last week Nicola spoke about a free trade deal with UK while being in the EU. And having open border with England. On scrutiny, she changed to no issue to trade with having a customs border with England while in the very next statement saying why Brexit border with Ireland is bad for UK trade.

            Scots were given a chance in 2014 to vote. And should have a chance for another vote, but this is too early since the last vote. May be in another 10-15 years. When there is a vote, economic considerations are only part of the argument for/against. Self governance at the expense of a potentially short term (or even longer term) economic hit is still a valid case for independence.

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