Italian politics – the only constant is change ++ Italexit?

Italian politics is back in Circus Maximus mode with Matteo Renzi living up to his youthful nickname “Rottamatore” (the Wrecker), bringing down Giuseppe Conti’s government by pulling out of the ruling coalition. Thereby making himself even less popular than before. Round and round they go, now aiming for the country’s 67th government since the war.

  Renzi’s raison d’etre was to object to the handling of the pandemic, with Italy having one of the highest rates of infection and numbers of deaths (comparative to population) in the world.

  The Italy 17 March 1961 Turin chart is has been logjammed through 2020 with Solar Arc Saturn square the Pluto and heavily disrupted by tr Uranus conjunct the Pluto; with ominous signs ahead of major confusion and uncertainty in 2023. That is echoed in the Italy 10 June 1946 chart which has the end of an undermining run of tr Neptune square Sun next month and upheaval from tr Uranus square the Pluto in April; but much worse in 2022/23 from Solar Arc Saturn conjunct Neptune followed by Solar Arc Neptune opposition the Sun and Solar Arc Pluto square Saturn.

  The Bank of Italy chart, 10 August 1893, is highly strung now and in considerable disarray come late 2022 into 2023.

  Of the main political contenders at the moment:

Matteo Renzi, 11 January 1975 2.45pm Florence, is facing failure from late April onwards, on and off till early 2023 with tr Neptune square his Mars; though he’ll buck up somewhat from early 2022 with tr Pluto conjunct his Sun/Jupiter midpoint running for two years thereafter.

Giuseppe Conte, 8 August 1964 2.30 Volturara Appula, Italy, has tr Neptune conjunct his Midheaven within weeks, extending over the next two years which is limp, lacklustre and not usually successful. Plus a frustratingly trapped tr Pluto opposition his Sun/Mars running on for the next few weeks and around till late this year; with hiccups and disasters over the next two months.  

  Matteo Salvini, 9 March 1973 10.50pm Milan, has Neptunian afflictions through this year but is the only one looking upbeat next month and December with a successful tr Pluto conjunct his Mars/Jupiter.

 Giorgia Meloni, 15 January 1977, 6pm Rome, has a challenging tr Pluto conjunct her Capricorn Sun in February and again late year; and a disappointing tr Neptune conjunct her Sun/Jupiter from late May onwards till early 2023. She does have some rays of sunshine this year and lucky breaks in April, May and January 2022. 2022/23 looks like fairly disastrous years for her.  

Add On: A recent poll showed more support for Italy to leave the EU. Though whether that would hold if it ever came to a referendum which would expose the gargantuan costs to Italy of repaying debt and exiting the euro. Long term yes, their own currency would make exporting more profitable but it’s doubtful if they could stand the transitional pain.

  It would be a much bigger issue than Brexit because Italy is a member of the euro currency union and the third largest economy in the eurozone, behind Germany and France. It would be “complicated enough to threaten the survival of the single currency.”  

  That being said there do look to be a good many ructions ahead from late this spring onwards, exacerbating through 2022 with the tr Uranus square tr Saturn hitting on the EU/Italy 1861 Mercury, then Sun, which could well point to a significant rupture. 2022/23 look very discouraging for relations between Italy and the EU. The EU/Italy 1946 relationship chart isn’t as stressed but points to 2023 and 2024 as years of upheaval and massive uncertainty.

18 thoughts on “Italian politics – the only constant is change ++ Italexit?

  1. Marjorie, I have read elsewhere that it’s possible that Italy might leave the EU. Is there an astrological likelihood that this could happen?
    Thank you.

      • Italian debt to GDP ratio is currently around 158%. They hover on the brink of a debt crisis that could ripple out around Europe, and globally, should they fall. They simply cannot afford to leave the EU, as Marjorie says. Germany, by contrast, is expecting their debt to GDP ratio to rise to 75% due to the ongoing pandemic.

    • @Zita I would be surprised if there were any great ructions any time soon, but I do feel there has definitely been a shift of opinion since I moved here 20 years ago. Once the discussion of the Italians leaving the EU would have been a non-starter. Now though people do mutter. The brooding resentment over lack of help with immigration, the lack of help from the EU when the pandemic hit Italy, the fiasco with the PPE has all added to the general sense of annoyance. However now is a difficult time to gauge national opinion really. Maybe a case of “wait and see”.

  2. About a decade ago, I thought Italy had moved past its constant changes of government but it turned out to simply be an infatuation with Berlusconi.

    Interesting to read on his wikipedia page that he was:
    – the first premier to be elected with no prior experience in government or administrative office
    – known for populist policies and brash personality
    – committed tax fraud (proven as he was convicted of it)
    – criticised for vigorous pursuit of his personal interests while in office

    Hmmm … who does that remind us of?

    I’m noting his birthday is Sept 29th which puts his sun at about 5 Libra and right on the 1946 Italian chart’s Neptune. So he appears to live out the dream of the nation.

    • @GnarlyDude, the interesting thing is, Italians might not have ever been truly “infatuated” with Berlusconi, it was just a stunt his PR machinery pulled. They certainly weren’t during his 2nd term in the early 2000’s. The comments I heard then, from generally speaking rightwing people – Italians have never shyed away from talking politics, so I knew where people I interacted with stood – were generally speaking something akin of “it is what it is”. Even his supposed “core” supporters, housewives who watched his TV channels all day long, often didn’t truly believe in him.

      But unlike most people in Italian politics, Berlusconi wanted to lead. This is how he also attracted a court eager to advance their own interests. And since he knew how to “quad pro quo”, he was able to go a long way.

      Also, I’d add that unlike Trump, Berlusconi is actually smart and business savvy. Yes, with huge character flaws, it’s obvious he has very strong narcissistic qualities. But he is a truly “selfmade” in a country where family legacies loom even greater than in The US. He got one lucky break with his father’s middling banking connections, and used them well. Also, the way he developed his TV business was nothing but brilliant. So, I think Trump should be compared to Berlusconi, not the other way around.

      • @Solaia my own sense was that in the beginning Berlusconi was very popular and he did do a lot of things that were new and good. You are absolutely right in that he was an excellent businessman and I think that was part of his attraction. He would run the country like a businessman and maybe it would get back on its feet. For example he set up a special fund for women only who wanted to open a business. My own sister-in-law benefited from that and impossible under any previous government. However at some point he became a politician like the rest of them and so people became disenchanted. The other thing was that he really got right up the nose of the “establishment” and he didn’t care and that made it even worse and they were gunning for him all the time. I worked as a Business English teacher in many big national and international companies and I remember once sitting with an HR Director of an international company discussing politics – as you say Solaia the Italians are happy to do so, and she said to me that she was disappointed with Berlusconi, but I remember her words so clearly “how can you vote for an opposition whose manifesto is “we’re going to get rid of Berlusconi?” Please note, these are my own personal views though – my own understanding at the time.

        • @Sarah C, yes, business people always liked if not Berlusconi, the idea of Berlusconi, after all, he was “one of theirs. incidently, the first time I was in Italy for a longer period was in Summer 1994 for a scholarship program with an international organisation. I stayed with a well-to-do family – I probably realized only later on just how well-to-do – and also got to tour quite a bit in Northern and Central Italy with other young people in program. We’d get to attend some pretty exclusive social functions with local VIPs. I was one of the few “guests” who spoke any Italian and behaved, so I was often sent to greet people and maybe make some polite conversation. But at some point, people forgot about me, and started talking politics, likely thinking that a foreign kid would not understand any of it. As it happened, public broadcaster had, at the time, a stellar correspondent in Rome, who’d explained the events in Italy with as much clarity anyone could. So, while I might not have known the names of local politicians, I knew the party affiliations. And the understanding was, literally two months after Socialist leader Bettino Craxi had fled the country in order to avoid prison sentence and other former top politicians were trialed, “everything had returned to what it was”, thanks to Berlusconi.

          However, if there ever were the fans you’d see in TV, “ordinary people”, pensioners and housewives who were supposedly adoring Berlusconi, I never met them from 1998 to 2004, when I was living in Italy. I knew many who’d vote for him or his allies, but essentially the same way they’d voted DC for 50 years, often without much conviction (I remember people who got teary talking about De Gaspari or Moro, but thought everything after Moro’s kidnapping and assassination was trash).

          I think this was very different from what’s now happening in The US with DJT, because many Americans seem to genuinely believe in DJT.

          • Hi Solaia, sorry for the late response. When I first came to Italy we had one family crisis after another, both in Italy and UK plus I didn’t speak a word of Italian, so a lot of my political knowledge over the period you mention is sparse to put it mildly. Probably isn’t much better now! The student I mentioned in my post before was someone I was teaching, must have been around 2009/11. So different time period really to the one you are talking about. From what I gathered, there were people who did definitely believe in Berlusconi – not in the mad blinding sense of DJT but in the sense of a breathe of fresh air – someone who would move them beyond “same old, same old”. Only it didn’t work out like that – and they (at least the people I know, who are all ordinary decent hardworking folk) were definitely disillusioned.

    • To both Solaia and Sarah C – thanks for your replies.

      I won’t even pretend to know anything about Italian politics, so it’s interesting to hear your more knowledgeable thoughts and experiences about the culture and goings on

      • @GnarlyDude, my pleasure! I also think that Berlusconi’s Sun conjunct Italy’s Neptune is significant considering the influence he had on Italian TV industry. I never finished my Master Thesis on Italian Television (just couldn’t find an angle), but did a lot of research on a couple of subjects. The way his channels changed the overall esthetic of Italian TV isn’t limited to bringing busty bombshells to every transmission. Public broadcaster Rai changed the structure of their programs, as well as sets, lightening, colors etc. of their primetime and weekend programming in particular to compete with Mediaset. Only their third channel, politically assigned to Communist Party first and far left then, kept the programming and esthetics similar to other European public broadcasters. They too carry commercials, though.

      • @ GnarlyDude Sorry with the tardy response – been caught up with “stuff” the past couple of days. Pleasure talking to you too – as I said before, and I stress, these are just my personal opinions, my take on things that I’ve felt/heard the past 20 odd years of living in Italy. 🙂

  3. I’ve written some thoughts on the situation in comments. Nothing particularly structured, because I think handling of covid-19 crisis is only an excuse to voice many separate frustrations and ambitions. It seems that all the parts are just throwing things and see what might stick. But, even if most Italian politicians traditionally want to be king makers rather than “kings” – Silvio Berlusconi having been a big exception -, I think there is even less willingness to take reins of the country among the key players than usually.

    One exception is Matteo Renzi who did cause the crisis to begin with, but he is a leader of a shrinking party, so likely lacks muscle to do much. As I’ve written previously, Renzi is from a small town in the area I lived in in Italy. I know “friends of friends” of his. Generally speaking, they’d describe him as a “classic” good Catholic boy, always the first of his class, but slightly clueless. The word is his political career has been piloted by his very ambitious and corrupt (he got sentenced to 1 year and 9 months for having written false invoices to an Apulian businessman for services they never rendered) father. I doubt that’s entirely true, given Renzi’s ambitions Capricorn Sun/Moon. That said, he seems to have singularly horrible political timing, possibly due to his natal Aquarius Mercury/Venus square Scorpio Uranus, and an incredible capacity to alienate even allies, with an exact Mars conjunct Descendant.

    Giorgia Meloni has an even more heavily Capricornian chart than Renzi, with Mercury and Mars joining Sun and very possible Moon in the sign. While not a “likeable” chart, Capricorn especially combined to Taurus Jupiter seem to give her much staying power in politics. She became a Minister at 31, I think still the youngest female in a Cabinet position in Italy. However, I think her main “project” right now is try to bring Berlusconi his ultimate dream – mostly ceremonial but influential position of President of Republic. In that case, she’d then be viable PM candidate in 2023 (Center Left or even some Center Right candidates would not nominate her because of her history as a Fascism apologist). But likely, something will happen to derail her plans.

    I agree Matteo Salvini has the best transits coming, but also think these might be related to his private life, due to Jupiter and Saturn approaching his domestic IC/4th house cusp. It’s no secret he didn’t find actual *work* as Minister of Interiors appealing, and got called lazy even by his own party “elders”. He now has a much more cushy Senatorial Seat, still can tweet and gets invitations to talk shows, a think he enjoys. He also has a young girlfriend approaching her Saturn Return, and they might think about starting a new family.

    So, it might be that Giuseppe Conte just has to continue in an increasingly thankless job as PM. Italy’s economy wasn’t in the best shape going to covid-19 crisis, and now the backbone, small family businesses in service field, are struggling.

  4. 1946 chart – four days prior to Donald Trump

    So featuring some of the same challenges – eclipses hitting the nodes; Saturn-Venus in Cancer opposed by t-Pluto as well as t-Neptune already hitting the even closer Gemini-Uranus-Node conjunction

    • @GnarlyDude, a great point! Also 1946 chart is the one I personally use for Italian politics, because that Gemini Sun/Uranus/NN is really the only thing that explains soon-to-be 67 Governments in 75 years.

      • I think both charts work, although the 1946 version seems more descriptive at the moment. Scorpio Moon in the 12th house probably has much to say and many secrets to whisper!
        What’s interesting about the 1861 chart is the Sagittarius ascendant, with Jupiter in the 9th, and all that Pisces, with Sun ruling the 9th from the 4th. Italians emigrated in huge numbers. Between 1860 and WW1, for instance, something like 16 million. They represented one of the largest diasporas in the world. They continued to leave Italy in the post war period, meeting with some hostility, and in some locations (USA for instance) legislation to restrict their numbers.

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