A fractured France is surveying the political chaos of a shock result in the parliamentary elections. Emmanuel Macron, voted President only two months back as the least worst option, lost his majority. Both left and right surged to new highs with Marine Le Pen improving her seat count by ten-fold. His power as executive head of state remains intact but he could be condemned to lame duck status for five years in all but foreign policy and security, which are under the direct control of the presidency. He could seek a coalition alliance though none of the other parties are keen or call new elections. His health, environment and maritime ministers all failed to win seats in the election.
Election predictions are always a nightmare with only rare occasions when a win is clearly signposted. What this one showed was Macron moving into a low-profile, less successful, banana-skin strewn few years which isn’t going to get easier.
His bombastic Fixed T Square of a Taurus Moon opposition Uranus square Mars in Leo was being rattled by transiting Uranus over the Presidential election (again in January 2023). Even more damaging and disruptive its Solar Arc positions are hitting his Sagittarius Sun for the first time this year and buffeting him severely up to 2025 and that always presages a life-changing crisis period of several years. By 2024 tr Neptune will square his Sun into 2025 which is undermining and confused.
His wife Brigitte, a political partner, has a car-crash setback on her chart from Solar Arc Mars square Saturn exactly now covering a few months; plus an insecurity-inducing shock from tr Uranus conjunct her Mars over this second election. Which repeats October/November this year and April 2023. She’s also sagging badly in 2024/5.
Marine Le Pen and left-wing Jean-Luc Melenchon may be rubbing their hands in glee at the moment but they are running into the buffers in a serious way through 2023/2024 with both having tr Pluto opposition their Mars, which is trapped and frustrated. Le Pen also looks seriously blocked around 2026/27 when the next election may be due.
The really interesting question always was – what is happening to France? The country’s bull-headed, contrary, rebellious Pluto in Aquarius opposition Uranus square Mars in Scorpio on the Midheaven is under dark Saturnine clouds this year and then gets a dose of Uranian lightning strikes and thunderbolts through 2023/2024. Which could suggest the old born-in-a-revolution spirit will resurface in street demonstrations. Tr Pluto is square the France Neptune in 2022/23 for widespread confusion and disillusionment and then moves to square the Saturn in 2023/24 for a discouraging and deprived slog through difficult times with low morale. By which time in 2024 there is an undermining tr Neptune opposes the France Virgo Sun. Whether Macron stays the course or not the next three years will go down as one of France’s least enjoyable chapters. By 2024 there will be glimmerings of revived confidence from an upbeat tr Pluto square the France Jupiter extending through 2025.
Macron’s First Presidency chart 14 May 2017 which might give pointers to an exit date – point to this August to December as being particularly destabilizing; with more upheavals and potential fall-off-perch moments by 2024. It’ll shake even his titanium-coated amour propre.
Be interesting to contemplate the EU minus its two leading players – Merkel gone and Macron tripping over domestic horrors.
See previous post April 2 2022
5 thoughts on “France fragmenting into a political whirlpool”
France and Germany have always wielded the most power. Usually with Germany taking the lead. But with Merkle stepping down, Monsieur Le Pipsqueak has seen it as an opportune moment to flex his international statesmanlike muscles. They’re not very big are they!
“[Macron’s] power as executive head of state remains intact but he could be condemned to lame duck status for five years in all but foreign policy and security, which are under the direct control of the presidency.”
And there was I thinking that foreign policy and international security had been taken over by the EU! Well maybe the ECHR has some influence – and NATO and WTO and the European Central Bank and so on and so on………….. In any event there is not much left for individual member states of the EU to have direct control of.
Actually foreign policy and international security are one of the few areas where the EU has *less* influence.
EU law can override domestic law in many areas and has arrogated itself the right to even override national constitutions if need be (though it is likely that national courts may make the latter difficult), but the EU itself has no direct influence on foreign policy and security except by helping its member-states co-ordinate their responses.
The EU’s power lies in helping 27 countries co-ordinate their foreign policies. But if the member-states refuse, there is little the EU can do. See Hungary aligning with Russia on some policy fronts or the varied recognition of Palestine across EU member-states for examples.
Thank you for this Marjorie.
So it’s back to the old revolutionary streak…
The Gilets Jaunes should be back in the streets before long, reflecting the country’s wretched decline and the widespread fear of the future.
Transiting Pluto is approaching a conjunction to Macron’s natal Ascendant which will also contribute to a dramatic change in circumstances for him during the next few years. As the song says, “There may be trouble ahead….”.