Emmanuel Macron has managed to top the domestic unpopularity polls of EU leaders which is no mean achievement given the carnage of reputations of the leading players – Merkel, Rutte, van der Leyen etc.
Macron’s Sun King/Superman/Jupiterian image has not stood up well to his botched management of the Covid crisis with daily cases now nearing 60,000 compared to the UK’s 4000. Unlike Merkel he appears incapable of owning up to mistakes and broken promises. His fanboy ministers describe him as an expert in epidemiology as he blithely disregards the advice of scientists and doctors, which has only added fuel to the hostility of a disgruntled electorate. This has pushed the far-right Marine Le Pen to record highs in the polls for next year’s Presidential election, a shift from ‘the unthinkable to the merely improbable’, as one analyst put it.
Macron was never going to do well given tr Saturn heading downhill on his chart now into his less-successful and lower profile First Quadrant. The uber-ambitious can push on despite the tide running the wrong way but it always leads to misjudgements, banana skins and setbacks for several years ahead. His bombastic Sagittarius Sun Mercury opposition Jupiter doesn’t catch the undermining tr Neptune square until 2024 but before then and exactly over the 2022 election he catches tr Uranus conjunct his Taurus Moon and opposition his Uranus exactly – which does suggest a considerable disruption to his life, domestic and other. Tr Pluto will be sitting exactly on his Ascendant then.
It doesn’t mean he couldn’t squeak through since the voters will be stuck between a president they loathe and Le Pen who despite having softened her party’s racist image in recent years would be an international embarrassment. Unless there is a third more palatable candidate. But Macron does look unlikely – his relationship chart with France has strongly separative aspects in April 2022 with tr Uranus opposition the composite Sun over the election.
Le Pen and France don’t look exactly sympatico over the election either with a tough, depressed tr Pluto square the composite Saturn and the composite Mars having been stressed beforehand.
And her chart is caught between a blocked-in Solar Arc Mars conjunct her Pluto from late 2021 through the election and tr Pluto opposition her 10th house Mars picking up in 2023. Plus an unsettled tr Uranus square her Sun across the election.
It’ll help the UK if Macron is despatched since his obvious dislike and hectoring competitiveness with all things Albion will be a serious problem ahead if he stays. Macron’s relationship chart with the UK has a hostile, power-struggling Mars opposition Pluto Mercury which is being undercut by a smoke-screening and scandal-mongering tr Neptune square this year and the next two. He gets on with Boris Johnson every bit as badly, no surprises for two super-competitive egos and that relationship chart is again sagging badly under a Neptunian assault through the next three or four years.
France itself is feeling the strain throughout 2022 with the restrictive tr Saturn conjunct the France Pluto, opposition the Uranus and square the Mars. It’ll face the French revolutionary spirit with a few hard truths. There’s also a devastating and confused tr Pluto square the Neptune in 2022/23, exact at the April election; and a jangled tr Uranus conjunct the Solar Arc Sun due for the July. With immense pressure on the France financial Venus as it catches the Solar Arc Pluto opposition Uranus. And by 2024 tr Neptune will oppose the France Virgo Sun, in place exactly for the Paris Olympics which doesn’t suggest a rapturous celebration. Costing gzillions they don’t have.
A few years ahead to take the shine off the feather-bedded French way of life.
From Neige posted onto an earlier Macron post;
‘Sarkozy has been sentenced to jail for corruption, so he won’t run.
Edouard Philippe would be a very unlikely president (very little charisma).
Barnier “Patriot and European”, an oxymoron ! Clément Beaune = En Marche, Macron’s party + « haut fonctionnaire », a technocrat = exactly what is killing France… DSK !!!
Right now Mélanchon and Xavier Bertrand (who played a leading role in Sarkozy’s presidential campaign) are presidential candidates and should be worth looking at. One of them may be the 3rd man.’
On a very cursory glance Xavier Bertrand, who served under Dominique de Villepin and then worked with Sarkozy looks the more likely of this pair. He has already expressed an interest in maybe running. But best wait see who lines up.
Marjorie, would it be worth looking at Edouard Philippe, Mayor of Le Havre, who had an impressive lockdown (1), before he was fired, as all good French prime ministers are? Apparently, he’s considering running. He would seem to be in with a reasonable chance.
Listening to the radio while having a shower and it seems that a political scandal has been uncovered in France, where, despite strict lockdown restrictions, influential people (ministers, heads of companies, etc) have been meeting up to have fine dining, cooked by the best French chefs, etc, in contravention of the law.
The France24 correspondent was saying that one of the restaurants was right across the road from a senior courthouse and an unannounced police raid caught many magistrates and judges at that restaurant. When questioned, apparently, one of the magistrates replied that well, they must eat and they might as well as eat well.
Given that France has just gone into another lockdown, this news story will likely go down very badly.
It is not just the UK with one law for the people at the top and another for the rest.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210405-france-investigates-claims-ministers-dined-in-secret-restaurants-against-lockdown-rules
PS: Apologies if my tone comes across as gleeful, but given the very preachy nature of comments from France in particular, I am indulging in a bit of schandenfreude. France could help its case by being a lot less pious and a lot more pragmatic.
No offense taken here! In the US, we’ve got a long list of rules in each state, esp ones for blacks, whites, and politicians.
The French are odd. They were born out of a revolution and can be remarkably bolshie when there’s any attempt to interfere with their over-supported way of life with extraordinarily generous state handouts. And if farmer’s (quite indefensible) protections are at risk out come the pitch forks and manure trailers. But they surprised me by being remarkably compliant when it came to filling in forms for every dog walk/supermarket visit and mandatory mask wearing.
But this time round every one has clearly got bored – and the government is so held in contempt that the ties are loosening. Hairdressers, florists and plant nurseries are open despite this lockdown which hardly makes the situation seem scary. Though there is an evening curfew. Bars and restaurants are hard hit which given their central role in the French way of life will be tough for them to handle.
I’ve never seen a gendarme yet, checking out journeys, even when travelling on the autoroute well over the limit last week – clutching all the required forms – attestation, proof of address, proof of dentist appointment etc.
I’d imagine French natives would probably smile and say good for them about the lobster and caviar meals – though they do dislike the French elite who can be, more so even than the normal French, staggeringly arrogant and entitled.
Interestingly, Mr Hollande and Mr Macron, both proving to be inept, only achieved power after the key favourite, DSK and Mr Fillon, had been ejected from the race at a critical juncture.
For once the Left were organised, ready to anoint DSK, so Mr Hollande, a socialist apparatchik, stepped into the void and won.
Mr Macron, who came from nowhere after a couple of non elected minister posts, started his own party, En Marche.
Who backed it or financed him is unclear, as is his phenomenal trajectory.
He and his wife are effective networkers, apparently penetrating the elite echelons of politics, finance and media with ease.
His 4 year stint at Rothschild’s Bank brought him millions.
It is said his ambition was two steps ahead of his experience and that he had a great sense of empathy.
Certainly his history is interwoven with this one from here, popping up there, to help him on his way with others.
The French elite is a very small world. He must have been useful. Certainly he was regarded with awe by the right people.
Nonetheless it’s hard to see how an unknown provincial, who only got into ENA when someone dropped out, has managed to achieve what he has.
Yet another backstory needing time to learn how all the bits fit together.
The foreign press were very impressed with Mr Macron at the last election. In France, people in general, were disenchanted with the choice of Macron and Le Pen, despite press hype.
No doubt there will be other candidates, but if the electorate is faced with Le Pen and Macron in the second vote again, the devastating and confused tr Pluto square neptune Marjorie mentions, could well describe the electorate’s feelings.
The French electoral system is nothing like the US, which is a federal system designed to cope with numerous states.
The French say that no one can change France. Perhaps they’re right.
Thanks, Zita; a nice summary.
“The French say that no one can change France.”
Well, time for another Revolution and a Sixth Republic perhaps?
Michael Barnier was reportedly considering presidential bid. Are his stars better than macron’s or lepen’s?
Perhaps there will be swap. Barnier becomes President of France, while Macron turns up as President of the EU !!
Larry, since you insisted , if all else fails, it looks as though the senate decide, and they or most of them are decided by an electoral college. But I could be mistaken as there seems many different ways of doing these things in France.
Are you any the wiser?
No?
Well then neither am I!
Last time round there were five candidates in the first round, so another will appear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
So what happens if there is no overall winner in the presidency. I know that
France goes to the polls again a couple of weeks later. But what happens if that too us a draw?
I’m afraid my opinion of presidential elections being above board, doesn’t point that way. You only have to look at how the Electoral College dictated the result with Donald Trump getting in. Democracy is somehow treated as a vague concept that only the hoi polloi get worked up about.
I knew Hillary Clinton was going to concede when I heard that she had cancelled her party at The Plaza Hotel early on the day of the election. Nothing like showing contempt for the electorate, many who queued for hours in the cold and wet to vote for her.
I don’t know if France has anything like an electoral college, but I can’t imagine them being any better. Especially with the results coming in so quickly.
An unknown contender might be attractive to the electorate if it stops Marine Le Pen in her tracks, but people thought the same of Macron. Humbug statesmanship has a lot to answer for!
“I don’t know if France has anything like an electoral college, but I can’t imagine them being any better. Especially with the results coming in so quickly. ”
One could research how elections function in France.
Look at ” French 5th republiek” at wikipedia. Everything explicated. Rules France since the 1958 de Gaulle government. But there have been changes through sarkosy, not for the best
Marjorie, as you mentioned 3rd candidates, could you have a look at Clément Beaune, the current junior minister for Europe, who is a Macron supporter, but apparently also has his own ambitions for the presidency? He has been making aggressive remarks against the UK in the context of the Covid crisis, so perhaps that is a vote-winner there.
And could Nicholas Sarkozy make a return?
DSK popped into mind but I suspect he has lost any credibility from his “sextra-curricular” activities…
If only he had stuck to the standard French practice of having a mistress…
Indeed, I suspect that it is a requirement for the role of French President. One must represent the French public in all manners 😉
Indeed, Hollande did have several children (4 or 5) with Segolene Royale, then moved onto Trierweiler, only to close out with a much younger woman/actress Julie Gayet.
Wel, there are persistent rumours of him being homosexual…..
Wel, boris could be french then ? That would explain….
No Sarkozy – criminal conviction.
@aline: I don’t think Rutte was intending to sideline the whistleblower but the notes were open to misinterpretation and Rutte – who until now had been dubbed Teflon Rutte – just handled the fallout really badly as if it was not at all important ‘how things might look’. But perhaps you’re right Aline and I am just naive.
@ suhu. I told you so.
The Hague is the center of corruption and ” vriendje-politiek”( cronyism) . It does not surprises me what is happening at the moment with Rutte and him wanting to get rid of a whistler blower. In the Netherlands it always have been ” keeping up apearances”. (of respectability). Very calvinistic way of governing and keeping ” dirty wash” out of sight. But of course, they are no beter than anybody
As for Macron, as soon as he loses the presidential election , he wil probably have very embarassing questions to answer as how his presidential campaingn was funded in 2017 as he had no political party behind him.
Would the populace seriously select someone as intensely xenophobic as Marine Le Pen? Consider: the US had elected Drompf and his kind. I’ve watched some of her online interviews over the past ten years – absolutely hideous. Merde!
I would think a third candidate will pop up from somewhere.
Thanks Marjorie, like Tokyo, it doesn’t seem to augur well for the Paris Olympics scheduled for July 2024!
Thanks have added a para at end. Not what they need. Olympics are catastrophically expensive and a curse to any country that isn’t a dictatorship.
@SuHu, this is interesting! We also have a public administration scandal ongoing in Finland, as the head of VTV, The National Audit Office that’s supposed to audit public finances, was caught claiming what’s seen extensive expenses. Now, another news outlet published news about New York Office Manager of Business Finland – an entity promoting Finnish business abroad – claiming up to 4.8 million dollars in dubious expenses between 2011 and 2017, including a 100 000 euro trip to France. Since Business Finland US is incorporated in Delawere, it’s not required to provide financial statement, and this was discovered by chance by a substitute. The case has been in court in the US, and reparations are likely. However, criminal charges against said Office Manager have not been raised. This raises serious questions on expenses approval process for tax funded entities, and I think heads will roll.
Very interesting. The whole of Europe is essentially in turmoil now and for the next few years. Your post of 14 January on the Netherlands is now playing out as you predicted with Rutte finding that despite having gained the largest number of seats in the recent election none of the other parties want to form a coalition with his party as long as he remains its leader. This due to the carelessness of one of the ‘coalition brokers’ who left her office with a pile of ‘notes’ under her arm (instead of in a briefcase) which could clearly be read in press photos which seemed to suggest that the whistleeblower in the tax department affair should be ‘given a job elsewhere’. Rutte after first denying any knowledge of the matter then tried to use the more Boris-like political sleight of hand that is a memory lapse. He was accused of lying and now finds himself isolated and the whole coalition-forming process in tatters with some calling for new elections. This once so stable country is becoming as much of a poltical farce as many of its neighbours.