China – more leverage and more to lose over Taiwan

The economic hit from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pales into insignificance compared to the potential damage from a similar standoff with China over Taiwan. Tensions have been rumbling ominously recently, with Japan last year giving notice that it would support the USA in defending Taiwan. And this week China demanded the US immediately cancels its latest arms sale to Taiwan, worth an estimated $108 million. Nancy Pelosi intends to visit Taiwan next month in a show of support, which is causing concern in the White House with her visit being described by Beijing as “malicious provocation.”

  A standoff with China would cause an “existential crisis” for the German car industry with one in three of its cars being sold on the Chinese mainland. VW makes half its profits there. Apple made 20% of its revenues in China last year with AstraZeneca, the UK drugs giant, not far behind. Apple also relies on a long list of China-based suppliers for components – as do other tech giants such as Microsoft, Google and Intel. A host of fashion retailers, including H&M, Zara, Gap and Calvin Klein, rely on a string of material suppliers in the country, which is the largest producer of cotton in the world. Nike has 102 factories in China while JCB, the British manufacturer of tractors, diggers and other machines, would also be caught in the collateral damage.

  With Germany as their “Achilles Heel” the EU would have much less room for manoeuvre; though some analysts believe Beijing would not risk a full-blown invasion given how much they could lose commercially themselves. What seems inevitable in future is a large amount of “decoupling” between the West and China.

The end/transformation of globalization – what comes next?

  Details of past Taiwan and Japanese crises/conflicts with China are in previous posts: 9 July 2021 and 1 October 2020. 28 degrees Cardinal does seem to be a sensitive spot for Chinese flare-ups and tr Pluto will be conjunct the China 1912 Uranus and square the China Aries North Node, both at 28 degrees, through this year on and off till late 2023.

  Xi Jinping’s Term chart, 24 October 2017 12.30 pm, does indicate a confident to over-confident push picking up from March 2023 on and off through 2025 with tr Pluto square the Sun Jupiter; with ruthless edge from tr Pluto trine Mars in 2023/24. It could pick up earlier since tr Pluto will conjunct the Term Uranus from this August and it will resonate up through the Term Sun Jupiter. Though he’d be unwise to chance his arm this year with an uncertain tr Neptune square the Term Saturn until February 2023.  

 The China 1912 chart is on high alert from 2021 through till late 2023 with tr Pluto pulling on the Uranus Neptune North Node T Square; but also confused and evasive through 2022/2023 with tr Neptune square the Mercury opposition Pluto; and over-reactive in 2024 with tr Uranus in a disruptive, explosive conjunction to the Mars.

  Relations with Japan are super-stressed 2022 to 2025 with tr Pluto conjunct the composite Mercury this year, then the Sun and Venus so their connection will be facing immense pressures and challenges.

  The USA and China won’t be a happy mix in 2023/24 with a discouraging and immoveable tr Pluto opposition the composite Saturn; and upheavals come 2025.  But they will be worse with Germany and the EU in 2023/24 and in the immediate years thereafter.

  The tectonic plates are shifting in unexpected ways with the celestial gear change between 2023 to 2026 and beyond – by which time Pluto will be in Aquarius, Neptune in Aries and Uranus in Gemini. Interesting times. Sigh.  

10 thoughts on “China – more leverage and more to lose over Taiwan

  1. Hi,I m Taiwanese. One of my friend(also a tarot master)told me that many Taiwan military / political advisors asked him about the relationship of Taiwan and China . The common results are War between Taiwan and China will start from 2023/11~2024/1 and finish at 2024/7~8. China will win and it’s not a large war. But will affect worldwide Economic Great Depression until 2028.

  2. I hadn’t realised that China’s Sun is conjunct the UK’s Capricorn Sun. I guess this may work either in a mutual respect or love/hate relationship. Or a bit of both?

    • Every nation or body born on 1st January of any year would have their Sun in the same location.

      So, for instance, the EU Single Market (1st Jan 1993) and the Euro (1st January 1999) would also have their Sun conjunct the UK’s (1st January 1801) Sun.

      But we know how those relationships have evolved.

      As an aside, my sibling’s, father’s and my own Suns are also almost conjunct, with our birthdays within days of each other (in different years obviously). And we used to fight like crazy when we were younger, though as we have grown older, we have become wiser and closer.

  3. Very interesting analysis. But it’s also possible the 3rd term may be over before it starts. Xi’s leadership was almost thwarted by a coup before taking power. He is currently very unpopular among elites as his anti corruption campaigns have been purges against those opposed to his rule. A 3rd term would also mean the CCP have given way to his self imposed rulership for life, reviving the emperor tradition – making it a feature of a long established communist hierarchy.

  4. The United Nations estimates India will overtake China as the world’s most crowded place in 2023. Their combined headcount will account for nearly 3 billion of the 8 billion people on the planet by next year.

    So perhaps not a ‘decoupling’ between East and West but a transfer of factories from China to India – at least by UK companies. With Rishi Sunak as PM, the UK would be very nicely placed.

    • Also India has its own burgeoning Silicon Valley. This will enable more home grown technology in future. Laying the foundation of a possible boom time. It will be very interesting to see how this will enfold, as China will definitely feel threatened.

  5. “A standoff with China would cause an “existential crisis” for the German car industry with one in three of its cars being sold on the Chinese mainland”

    Just looked at three German car manufacturers, with interesting results to consider I think:

    Volkswagen – 28 May, 1937. It has Jupiter 27 Capricorn opposing Pluto, 26 Cancer. These aspect Venus in Aries and Mars in Scorpio. Tr Pluto already at work here, perhaps due to environmental concerns, but hits those degrees again in 2023.

    BMW – 7 March, 1916. It also has Venus in Aries (26) – more Pluto. Also, Mercury 19 Aquarius, conjunct Uranus 17 Aquarius – pressure from tr Uranus Nodes Mars. Next year Pluto opposes its Neptune at 0 Leo.

    Mercedes Benz – 28 June 1926. Another Pluto transit candidate, with Mercury at 28 Cancer, and Venus at 28 Taurus. There’s Saturn at 19 Scorpio, so some Uranian etc tensions between old ways of doing things, and something revolutionary?

    There are other upcoming aspects, but these ones just stood out.

  6. I love that lady like my own grandmother. She has a titanium spine connected to a sharp brain.
    Samsung shut down all their cellphone factories in China years ago, and good on them. Only a pity they couldn’t do it for all their other electronics.
    Confrontation with China is likely inevitable, so might as well show strength as they’re taking queues from Russia in that if they can’t have the the country they think they’re entitled to, then destroy it and set it back for years. None of them really want a direct confrontation with the U.S. But they’re poking the Bear because they believe it has little appetite for wars; hence, a good time to capitalize.

  7. Thanks Marjorie, really good to have this analysis. I think this is so important in so many ways, bearing in mind the recent announcement by the FBI and M15 that China poses a huge threat to economic security in the world. Amazing how something so serious has been tucked away by the media, when it deserves much more attention and thought.

    I noticed that the October eclipse at 2 Scorpio will activate the Sun and Jupiter on the Term Chart here. This Saros Series, SS 6 South, is said by Bernadette Brady to ‘have a manic flavour’, and be about ‘being forceful and taking power’.
    If the Sun and Jupiter describe a leader, and possibly senior military, then they could take some kind of big risk or gamble this autumn? But perhaps a retrograde Mars throughout those months indicates holding back, or a distinct lack of success. Mars turns retrograde at 25 Gemini, right on the China/Japan composite Neptune, and two degrees off the China 1912 Pluto.

    As you say, ‘interesting times’…..

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