Brexit is about to negotiate another hurdle with new border controls on goods coming in from Europe which is likely to cause delays and additional costs, with more following in April. Trade deals with the rest of the world which were allegedly the raison d’etre for the split with the EU are not going well. Negotiations between the UK and Canada have been halted after disagreements on beef and cheese tariffs. Deals with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, USA and India have either not happened or have brought negligible results.
A change in voter regulations will allow ex-pats to vote in the next election, bringing another 2.3 million voters onto the roll. They are likely to be jaundiced by visa restrictions and other complications which may tilt them away from the Tories.
The Guardian and Independent are tub thumping about all the negatives while the Telegraph is robustly defending their cause celebre. “A fair assessment should acknowledge that although Brexit has not proved to be the economic nirvana that some naive over-optimists imagined, neither has it brought the disaster that some other economists envisaged.” Small mercies.
No one thinks the UK will even blink in the direction of reapplying since apart from anything else it would probably be rejected. But an easing of barriers, tariffs and travel restrictions might sweeten the pill.
The Brexit Referendum vote on 24 June 2016, is due for a major disruption round about now with the Solar Arc Pluto about the close the square to Uranus to exact within weeks. Which may coincide with the new border controls. There will be a few jolts and jangles this May and the New Year to March 2025. The majority of voters now think it was a mistake which may be a factor in the next election – with the aggravated ex-pats adding their weight to the vote.
There’s not much of cheer in the EU/UK relationship chart though the EU are sinking under the weight of their own problems. Where there might be a chance of a reversal in policies could be starting in 2025 into 2026 with tr Uranus conjunct the composite Pluto with more in the years following.
France would be a stumbling block to any easing of barriers since the UK/France relationship chart has always been implacably hostile with a composite Mars Pluto square Sun – and there is nothing that looks amiable in that direction for another two years. With Germany there is less animosity but any changes would wait for 2025 at least where there does seem to be a possibility of a different outlook.
Much will depend on internal EU fortunes which are sagging at the moment -and indeed the global situation which could have a bearing.