The Brexit Deal was signed at 2.44pm and announced at 3pm in London, with sighs of relief all round. The devil will be in the detail but even Nigel Farage says the long haul out of the EU is over. It will still have to be ratified by both parliaments but the reckoning is that Boris has enough to see it through even if the batshit crazy ERG-ers mount a challenge (violently anti-Eu types who really wanted a No Deal fallout.) Commentators added below.
The announcement chart has a co-operative 7th house Sun Mercury in an easy trine to Moon Uranus in the friendly, networking 11th. And Moon Uranus square a Jupiter Saturn conjunction in Aquarius in the international 9th – marrying idealism and materialism though it won’t be seamless. With both Uranus and Mars hitting on Jupiter Saturn there will be jolts, hitches and glitches along the way.
Two aspects raise more obvious question marks. One is the indecisive Neptune in the 10th square North Node on the Ascendant opposition Venus. The other is the dirty-dealing-in-secret Pluto in the 8th in a frustrating and trapped square to Mars. Luckily the Mars Pluto square is almost exact so although the next few months will be fraught, it may not cause much aggravation beyond that.
There’s not much indication of triumphant celebrations on any of the charts of key figures – negotiators, Boris etc. I take that back – Ursula von Leyen has tr Uranus opposition her Jupiter for a considerable sigh of relief, which she deserves having pushed Barnier aside to take over negotiations. Boris isn’t looking too chirpy but then he didn’t over his resounding election victory either. One of the oddities of his temperament.
There will be all manner of griping and groaning but from an initial reaction it does seem in the circumstances like a triumph for Boris which Theresa May couldn’t have managed to pull off.
Add ON: The media as to be expected are split between the contemptuous left-wing and the jubilant right-wing. Below thoughts to ponder from various commentators.
The general view appears to be “Even with this deal, nobody is a winner.” A trade agreement along the lines of the one negotiated between the two sides will leave Britain facing a 4 per cent loss of potential gross domestic product over 15 years compared with EU membership, according to the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility. Britain will begin its “independence” facing unsatisfactory frictions in the roughly half of its trade that is with the EU, especially in services.
It is certainly not the easy deal Brexiters blithely predicted. Manufacturers – face costly extra bureaucracy which is likely to hit exports to Europe. There is even less for the service sector, the engine of the British economy. The price of British sovereignty is essentially the first trade deal designed to reduce access. This – represents a much harder Brexit than even many Leave supporters thought they were voting for in 2016.
In the long term, however, Britain is weakened. The UK alone carries less clout in the world. The Union is in great peril. Northern Ireland will look ever more toward the Republic; Scotland appears likely to return the Nationalists to power with their agenda of a second independence referendum. More important, the UK’s economic trajectory is now slower and lower.
Finally shorn of the economic advantages of EU membership, the UK is going to need a more agile and effective leadership than this government has thus far generally shown itself capable of delivering.
There’s also an argument that Brexit is now four years out of date. “The whole ‘Global Britain’ model doesn’t reflect the more protectionist, nationalistic world we’re living in,” said Thomas Wright, the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. “Becoming a global free trader in 2016 is a bit like turning into a communist in 1989. It’s bad timing.”
“The world is now dominated by three gargantuan economic blocs – the United States, China and the European Union. Britain has finalised its divorce from one of them, leaving it isolated at a time when the path forward seems more perilous than it once did.”
‘The prime minister – has run down the clock and squandered diplomatic goodwill until the only viable option was a bad Brexit softened at the edges by the prospect of it being implemented in an orderly fashion. To have avoided the very worst-case scenario is a pitiful kind of achievement. Mr Johnson deserves no credit for dodging a calamity that loomed so close because he drove so eagerly towards it. This, too, is intrinsic to his modus operandi. His core skill is getting out of scrapes that his own negligence and recklessness get him into.’
‘So far, the government has given little indication of its plans. A vision for post-Brexit Britain, its economy, and its place in the world, have yet to be spelt out. It is far from clear, moreover, that a government that has mishandled much of its response to coronavirus is capable of steering a traumatised country through the extraordinary period of change ahead.’
“Brexit was always in part fuelled by the allure of destroying the present. The farce has been presented as a drama, when reversing more than 40 years of cooperation for peace and prosperity is truly a tragedy.”
“This deal will see the poorest communities across Britain hit hardest – especially in the north and the Midlands, which are more reliant on manufacturing, set to be a significant loser. For all the talk of “nothing to lose”, analysis by IPPR shows that a Brexit deal like this will cause the most harm to those least resilient to it. “
“We share the view of most informed world opinion, especially American, that beyond our weaker economic position, we shall become less important allies for the US because of our forfeiture of influence in Europe.”
“Post-Brexit Britain can indeed exclude Polish plumbers and Romanian car-washers. There will be immense popular disappointment, however, trending to anger, when it becomes understood that our newfound liberty does nothing to resolve the far more serious problems posed by non-EU immigration, especially from Africa and the Middle East.”
“In the words of Churchill after Dunkirk: “wars are not won by evacuations”.
Boris and the Brexiteers broke it – they own it. And they won’t escape the brickbats as the actualite throws a spotlight on the mendacity.