The shifting sands of the Middle East just blew up another storm with Trump’s off-the-cuff agreement, against his own advisers and party leaders, allowing Erdogan of Turkey free rein to invade Kurdish-held Northern Syria. Turkey dislikes the Kurds whom they see as terrorists with ambitions to set up their own state which would encroach on Turkish territory. The Kurds backed by the west did the bulk of the work fighting to defeat Isis in Syria, losing 11,000 troops in the grinding battle and is now controlling the camps where ISIS prisoners are held – who might be set free if Turkey invades.
Even Lindsay Graham, normally an avid Trump supporter tweeted in consternation: “This decision to abandon our Kurdish allies and turn Syria over to Russia, Iran, & Turkey will put every radical Islamist on steroids. Shot in the arm to the bad guys. Devastating for the good guys.”
The relationship between Trump and Erdogan is slipping and slithering from late October through November and into early 2020, so the decision may well be reversed. Though unsolvable problems remain – with Turkey understandably keen to shift the 3.5 million Syrian refugees they house back across the border and European countries refusing to take back the 20,000 ISIS foreign nationals held in prison camps; as well as Trump’s campaign promise to bring troops home from endless, unwinnable wars.
Relations between Turkey and Syria are moving into a highly unstable and insecure phase from early 2020 with tr Pluto square the composite Uranus for two years.
Erdogan’s 4th term chart 9 July 2018 4.30pm Ankara, is moving through stuck times this year with tr Saturn opposition the Sun and conjunct Pluto before this New Year; with an explosively insecure and over-reactive tr Uranus square Mars from mid 2020 which may precipitate unwise decisions, running into a deadlock and dead-halt in 2021 with Solar Arc Sun opposition the Pluto exactly.
Syria, 1 January 1944, which has been wrecked by the eight years of civil war with millions displaced and upwards of half a million dead has another trough to negotiate with the highly uncertain Solar Arc Neptune opposition Saturn in late 2020; a destabilising tr Uranus square Pluto mid 2020 to early 2021; and the worrisome tr Neptune square Saturn in 2020/21.
Bashar Assad’s presidency, 17 July 2000, always did look in for its most punishing phase from 2018 as tr Pluto started to oppose the Mars, moving through the opposition to Sun/Mars and finally the Sun in 2021/22 – an extended phase of high-risk and extreme frustration at being trapped. He could topple off his perch altogether in 2021 with Solar Arc Uranus square the Pluto – not set in stone but definitely a very wobbly phase.
The consequences of the Brit-Franco botched carve-up of the Middle East after World War One are still causing maximum aggravation.