To almost universal condemnation Donald Trump is about to pull out of the Paris Climate Treaty – maybe. It depends on whether the New York Ivanka pro-lobby wins or the retrogressive Bannon triumphs. China and the EU are to agree a joint statement saying it is more important than ever as a rebuff. It will place the USA beside the only two non-participating countries – Syria (in civil war) and Nicaragua (which thinks it doesn’t go far enough).
On the international front, any such withdrawal “is going to damage the U.S. much more than it’s going to damage the Paris agreement itself,” said one expert. “It provides an opportunity for China to exert itself on the global stage”. And many US business leaders say it will actively harm the US economy.
Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph has another, albeit still critical, view. ‘The fracking revolution alone, by replacing coal with cheap gas, is already causing US emissions to fall precipitously. By pulling the plug on Paris, Trump only unnecessarily compounds the impression of steady withdrawal from international engagement. It serves no practical purpose other than meeting a campaign promise and sticking two fingers up at the rest of the world. It’s not going to bring back coal jobs to Virginia, it’s not going to halt the growth in renewables, and it’s not going to revive Mr Trump’s plummeting approval ratings, either at home or abroad. It is therefore an entirely worthless piece of tokenism.’
The Paris Treaty was adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015 and received enough signatures to come into effect on 4 November 2016.
Both charts are labouring through heavy seas in 2017/18; with tr Pluto square Mars, tr Neptune square the Sun/Saturn midpoint and tr Saturn square Jupiter on the 2015 chart. And an uncertain, undermining tr Neptune square Saturn in 2017/18; plus a jolting tr Uranus square Mars now until early 2018.
So it was never going to have an easy ride into gear. It doesn’t appear to hold countries to promises in any event and the poorer countries more dependent on fossil fuels would struggle to keep up. Over time as the new technology spreads, it will pull back carbon emissions as a matter of course.
Shakespeare: ‘Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.”
Additional thoughts now the deed is done: The oil and coal barons have swayed Trump, and the isolationist Bannon, whose financial patrons are also invested in promoting fossil fuels . See urls below. A previous attempt by GWB (and Cheney), not just in thrall to oil interests but immersed in them, ended in humiliating defeat.
Trump’s relationship chart with Bannon has just started a tr Neptune opposition the composite Sun Saturn and that will run on and off till late 2018. So it’s going to end in tears or hair-tearing along the way. Though too much to expect an instant rug-pulling.