Banks at risk – will the impossible become inevitable? ++ UBS, First Republic

Move along, nothing to see here, was the finance experts view of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, until another couple of banks keeled over, the US government caused consternation by going against practice to bail out SVB depositors and Switzerland had to pony up $45 billion to shore up Credit Suisse.

 Gerald Baker in The Times points to 2008 parallels with a series of isolated incidents with small hedge funds down in 2007, the run on Northern Rock, Bears Stearns’ collapse in 2008 and onto the final straw of Lehman’s implosion bringing the whole house of cards down. This time round is not the same since the banks are not overloaded with toxic assets but it just goes to show how economic predictions can swing from  Pollyanna to catastrophe in the blink of an eye.  

  Could Switzerland be bankrupted by this crisis is one of the  wilder conjectures. Seems unlikely but with last time in mind ’the unimaginable may become the inevitable very quickly.’

 The Bank of Switzerland, 20 June 1907, looks mired in consternation and panic from this May on and off until January 2025 with tr Neptune square its Gemini Sun and conjunct its Saturn. Into 2025 there will be a totally road-blocked Solar Arc Pluto square Mars – so this is not a crisis that will evaporate this year.

  The Switzerland country chart, 12 September 1848 12.55pm does look under considerable pressure for the next three years with tr Pluto trine Mars and then its financial Venus but is unlikely to go the way of Ireland after 2008.

  Credit Suisse heading for its Second Uranus Return from this August onwards might do worse than look back to 1940/41 when it had its First Uranus Return to see the likely effects. See previous post on Credit Suisse 18 January 2022.

And post below Bank collapse 11 March 2023.

ADD ON: Switzerland is preparing to use emergency measures to fast-track the takeover by UBS of Credit Suisse which they see as the only option to arrest a collapse in confidence in Credit Suisse. UBS has requested some form of indemnity or government agreement to cover future legal costs. As of May 2022, UBS is the third largest bank in Europe.

  Founded by a merger on 29 June 1998, it is facing an uncertain three years ahead. This year tr Saturn in Pisces will square its financial Venus in Gemini opposition Pluto; with the Solar Arc Sun moving to an undermining opposition to its Neptune; and tr Neptune will conjunct the Jupiter  from mid this May on and off into 2024 none of which is usually good news on the money front. It will face worse in 2024/25 with tr Pluto in a devastatingly confused conjunction to the Neptune.

  The USA First Republic bank is also in trouble despite a rescue package of $30bn from JPMorgan and 10 other banks. Its stocks has fallen more than 75 per cent after panicked investors realised it would not benefit from the special Federal Reserve funding vehicle. Founded 1 July 1985 it is a Sun Cancer like UBS. Its Solar Arc Venus is opposing Neptune this year for a flutter of uncertainty; but its greatest woes will come in 2024 when the Solar Arc Mars squares the Saturn (and it may trigger late this year) with tr Pluto squaring the Pluto also forcing through unwanted changes. Plus tr Uranus will conjunct the financial Venus to bring upsets.

  The financial pundits are still holding onto a ‘bullish assessment’ but admit it is pro tem being ‘trumped by bearish nerves.’ While they insist this crisis is different from 2008 since banks are not loaded down by toxic assets, there are different problems. This time round central banks need to calm inflation by raising rates and that adds pressure to banks used to easy money over recent years.

Pluto’s entry into Aquarius will keep the upset running.