A three-way wild card byelection between Reform, the Greens and Labour in south-east Manchester today will add to Keir Starmer’s woes with the pressure continuing to mount towards the more significant May 7 local byelections.
A delightful cartoon this morning has a voter asking whether she could vote “off menu” which largely sums up electorate disenchantment with parties of all stripes.
On May 7th tr Saturn will be approaching the square to the UK Capricorn Sun for a mood of gloom as the result sinks in; with an uncertain tr Neptune conjunct the Solar Arc Saturn. The one note of cheer is tr Jupiter conjunct the UK 10th house Moon which might suggest someone in the ruling classes is happier than expected.
A Mars in Aries square Jupiter on the day might give Reform a boost since their foundation chart of 23 November 2018 has a Mars square Jupiter Sun. It can be opportunistic and give rise to sudden strokes of luck followed by the opposite.
The Reform chart does have its Solar Arc Jupiter conjunct Mercury around now for a high; with much excitement from tr Uranus opposition its Sun Jupiter and square its Mars mid May to July and later in the year. It may be on a roll but it won’t last with a panicky-failure SA Mars conjunct Neptune in 2027 as well as mounting concerns, muddles and indecision from tr Neptune square its Saturn in 2027 as well.
Nigel Farage, 3 April 1964 4.30pm Farnborough, England, has a longish downhill slide from late May this year right through 2027 as well as tr Neptune first is conjunct his Mars, and then undermines several of his Jupiter midpoints into 2028.
Zack Polanski is awash with Neptune which tends to be non-progressive when it comes to competitive politics – SA Neptune square his Sun now; SA Sun square his Neptune in 18 months and tr Neptune trailing in square to his Mars Jupiter up to late April this year, returning August/September.
The Green Party, 13 June 1985, looks blocked this year with SA Sun square Pluto; and tr Neptune trailing around this year until November.
Keir Starmer’s leadership chart, 4 April 2020 10.45 am London, is under maximum pressure with the Solar Arc Pluto conjunct the Saturn exactly in May, which will only slightly be moderated by SA Jupiter also conjunct the Saturn – no matter the pressure, his determination may not flag though with tr Pluto moving to square the Uranus across the election, from late this March to late June, and again early and late in 2027, it may well mark his topple-off-perch moment.
Kemi Badenoch – with her Solar Arc Uranus approaching her Capricorn Sun this year it will be all systems change, which might mean an exit for her or a radical change of direction. The Tory Party, 9 May 1912, looks to be erupting with high tension as the SA Uranus is conjunct the Saturn this year but on May 7th tr Jupiter will conjunct the Tory Party Mars – so may not be a total wipeout.
Neither Ed Davey not the LibDems are going anywhere with more tr Neptune square his natal Sun in May and a turbulent tr Uranus square his Leadership Virgo Sun from July onwards. The LibDem chart, 3 March 1988 – again all downhill for the next three years or so as tr Neptune squares its Saturn, Mars, Neptune in Capricorn. Tr Saturn is exactly in a disillusioning square to its Neptune on May 7th.
All more or less floundering in shallow waters.
Thank you, Marjorie, for this thoughtful write-up, and Hugh and others for your excellent analysis. As someone who follows UK politics from afar after spending my school and university years there, I see so many parallels to the dysfunction of the system and disdain and arrogance of the political parties and elites of US politics. I’ve loved the potential of politics to do good for the people ever since I was a small child (I worked in my first campaign at 11), but now I wonder why anyone altruistic would want to run for office.
Again, thanks for keeping me present in UK politics!
the irony is that Andy Burnham would have won this seat if Starmer had not blocked him
Starmer obviously had no confidence of his ability to deal with Burnham as an MP and possible rival in the Commons. A more sophisticated political tactician would have let Burnham run for two reasons. The first is that there was a chance that Burnham could have still lost and that would have effectively ended his leadership ambitions. The second is that if Burnham had won it would have steadied the nerves of the Parliamentary Labour Party, undercut the challenge from the Greens and been seen as a triumph for Labour over Reform. it would also potentially have bolstered Starmer’s position in the short term. Instead Starmer is in the worst of all worlds. The MPs will think he put his position as Leader before the party and their own electoral future, Burnham is still a potential king across the water and the Greens have won the kudos for beating Reform and have increased their profile as an alternative to Labour. Starmer is definitely the poorest electoral strategist as PM since Ted Heath.
In terms of wider long term political significance the result is probably being overhyped by the media. The left of centre share of the vote in the 2024 General Election for Labour/Greens/the Workers Party was 74% of the vote. This time the combined Labour/Green vote was 66% of the total ballots cast. Reform basically took all the right of centre votes increasing their total by 5000 of which circa 2500-3000 were disgruntled Labour voters. They were never going to win this seat no matter which way the Labour/Green vote split.
The turnout in Dentin & Gorton was almost exactly same as the 2024 General Election so the two results are comparable. The most notable thing is over half the eligible voters did not bother to go to the polls which says all one needs to know about the feelings of many people about British party politics.
One suspects the May 2026 local council and assembly elections in Wales and Scotland are going to be more significant with the Nationalist Parties likely to pick up Labour seats.
He really has zero political nous. It is a wonder he got to the top. I used to think he was a decent guy but ????
Looked at from the perspective of the UK and the Labour party your comment is quite correct. However, when you view his actions from the perspective of the North London Labour party and its constituency of Millionaire Lawyers, rich bankers and media types, he comes across as a shrewd and skillful operator.
I wonder about his Jupiter/Chiron in Pisces. Could that indicate a weakness in his judgment? Then again he also has Moon in Libra and since we don’t have a TOB it could well be conjunct Mercury in Libra or indeed his BML in Libra. As someone with Moon/Mercury in Scorpio my own experience of this conjunction is the way in which the Moon can obscure one’s rational thinking or how thoughts and feelings are merged, sometimes making clarity very difficult. Also the Moon in Libra wants to be liked and/or be all things to all people in an effort to please. His Grand Trine in Water can also tend towards a ‘living in a bubble’ mentality, perhaps explaining why he appears to be so out of touch with the electorate.
Meanwhile, Pluto in Aquarius is approaching a conjunction with his natal Saturn 5 and then onto his South Node 8, at the same time opposing his Ceres 7 in Leo into 2027.
I agree that the media has overhyped this result.
Looking at the result in Gorton and Denton in 2019 when Boris won a huge number of working class votes for the Tories and created a “blue wall” is quite interesting.
In 2019 it remained Labour with 67.2% of the vote. The Tories got 18.9% with the Brexit Party getting 4.9%. The Greens got 2.5%. It’s a left wing seat.
Interesting to note Hannah Spencer, the Green Party’s candidate who won the election, is a plumber and qualified as a plasterer a couple of weeks ago.
It seems very symbolic of Pluto in Aquarius for an everyday person to be elected.
Yet she belongs to a party that wants to legalise all drugs.
Politics is in the U.K. is in a real mess isn’t it? Everyone seems to be voting for the least worst candidate or to stop another party winning.
I am beginning to wonder if Keir Starmer will, against all odds,
remain as prime minister until the next general election. He is absolutely determined to do so and the Labour Party doesn’t seem keen to get rid of a leader who won’t go quietly. And he won’t go quietly I suspect.
I look forward (with some trepidation) to what unfolds next in the political sphere. Thanks Marjorie for your excellent astrological write ups on the political landscape in the U.K. Fascinating to read.
The May 7th Election Chart will have a Saturn /Sun midpoint conjunct Chiron in the 9th house- ruled by Jupiter . A wound (Chiron) may be inflicted on the ruling authority ( Saturn/Sun)? By the People (Moon) in Capricorn. The Sun is in the 10th which is Capricorn/authority natural home. Also the Moon in 5th house/ Capricorn which is also the Sun’s natural home Leo. What is interesting the Moon/ Jupiter opposition . As the Sun/Saturn midpoint on Chiron will be felt as Jupiter rules the 9th house. Especially, if I have my calculations correct, as the Moon by the closing of the votes moves to square Chiron. The first house, which rules the Chart has Leo on its cusp, making the Sun the Charts ruling planet. Ruler and Authority and a wound may figure very strongly on that day?