UK Brexit – carry on not really caring

    

 

Theresa May is in meltdown, Brexiteers (hard and soft) are enraged and kerflummoxed and Remainers are tearing their hair out, with Project Fear (which may well be realistic) screaming through the headlines. My impression is the great Brit public outside the Westminster bubble have detached themselves from the dog fight or snail race and are shrugging ‘whatever’, assuming it’ll shake down somehow.

Will the member states get cold feet at the last moment when they see their commerce being affected and dent the intransigence of the Brussels technocrats?  Maybe or maybe not, if it threatens to undercut the raison d’etre for a members-only EU.

Mid this September to mid October look a curious mix of high-spirited elation with tr Uranus square the UK Jupiter and trine the Jupiter/Uranus; and high-tension crisis with tr Uranus opposition the Sun/Saturn midpoint.

Whatever patched together cobble-up agreement is arrived at, goes before the UK Parliament on December 18th for a decisive vote. That’s two days before tr Saturn moves to conjunct the UK Sun and conjunct the EU Sun and EU/UK composite Sun on the relationship chart, and exactly conjunct the Germany Sun. Which looks discouraging and separating.

At that point tr Pluto is just a few days past the final opposition to the UK 10th house Moon, running on the exact aspect since early November, which will certainly jack up a mood of emotional intensity about its rulership.  But it’s been around since last year and hasn’t noticeably engaged too much interest to date, apart from bored irritation. Mid December to mid January there’s also a downbeat tr Pluto square the Mercury/Saturn midpoint which does suggest a degree of brooding and depression

Mid January to almost mid February looks confident, successful and exuberant with tr Pluto square the Sun/Jupiter though also stressed and nerve-stretched with tr Pluto opposition the Mars/Uranus midpoint (which could also be violent incidents).

Exactly on March 29 2019 when either it’s a hard-landing out or a fudged extension, tr Neptune is square the UK 3rd house Mercury through the following month – 3rd house ruling transport, communications, trade and neighbouring relations, all of which looks confused. March 2019 is also when the Solar Arc Moon opposes the 11th house Saturn on the UK chart for a population out of sorts with the legislature.

It then gets neurotic, uncertain and panicky from May onwards with tr Neptune square the Saturn/Node midpoint – feeling neglected, lonely and misunderstood. That’s the point when Theresa May’s Term chart really hits a downhill slide – more so than before – with tr Neptune square the Full Moon, running till late 2020.

Though on balance in general Theresa May looks on more favourable terms with the electorate than Jeremy Corbyn does. His relationship chart with the UK has a composite Mars Pluto square Saturn Uranus, which doesn’t suggest a lot of love in there as far as basic chemistry goes. But maybe he won’t last that long.

All imponderables. The real economic scrunch won’t hit till  2021.

11 thoughts on “UK Brexit – carry on not really caring”

  1. The interesting thing is that whether Mrs May gets some sort of a deal or not, there appear to be dozens of Tory MPs who will vote against it. 40 plus against no deal, 50 plus against the Chequers proposal or anything weaker. Labour has configured its position to vote against in almost any scenario – they don’t want the blame for the downside of any arrangement that finally emerges.

    So the likelihood has to be that parliament defeats anything Mrs May comes up with. What then?

    • It was reported in the news today (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/u-k-and-eu-said-to-drop-their-october-deadline-for-brexit-deal) that the UK and EU have quietly dropped the idea of a deal being reached before October. Thus, the earliest a deal can be confirmed would be the December meeting of the European Council (the meeting of heads of government of the 27). That would leave very little time for both the UK and European Parliaments to ratify the deal and no time to negotiate further.

      The alternative to the deal that TM brings back is no-deal and I think that there will be sufficient votes across the various parliamentary parties to pass the deal, though I think the vote will not be on party lines.

      Based on what Marjorie has posted here and in the past, I doubt that there will be an extension to the two years negotiation period. Marjorie has spoken of a elation period around the end of March in the UK, which suggests that a deal will be done-and-dusted and that people will be delighted to see the end of the Brexit process.

  2. I watch it between my fingers, if I’m honest. I’m hoping there isn’t a hard brexit, but I am preparing it somewhat – initial shortages during several weeks of chaos, then price rises.

    I wonder if it will kick off something even bigger when the US Dollar is very strong for a couple of years as the Euro inevitably weakens (don’t even mention the pound). It seems like just the first domino that will ripple out into a series of shocks. The map of the initial impact on the most directly affected economies may not be even the full story. I don’t feel like “just want it over with”, because I feel like it won’t be over for a long time once it starts.

    But never mind, at least the Conservative party didn’t split! Well done David Cameron

  3. In my opinion we in the UK only got the vote as Brexit was never expected.It was a silent British revolt outside of outside the Westminster/London bubble.Everyone I know would vote out again, even those who voted remain now due to democracy being ignored.I think more people would vote out that remain now.But the twitter re-moaners arguments continue to shout the loudest with the help of our London based media.How does the EU chart look if we leave please?

    • Most people I know who voted brexit were very vociferous, but now very quiet. Perhaps that’s why remain arguments seem “louder”? Why shouldn’t people protest if they think it’s a terrible idea?, anyway?

  4. “‘People have PTSD on Brexit now,’ said a voter in a recent focus group.” according to Katy Balls of the Spectator on Twitter. And I agree. The fighting has become so entrenched and stale (somewhat like some of the battles of WWI a hundred years ago, with the line moving a few metres here and there, but largely in place), that the whole UK population (and the EU population, as Solaia says) would just like it over with, one way or another.

    To Solaia I would say this, the EU needs to become much looser. Even post Brexit, there will be resurgent national governments in Poland, Hungary and Italy (though very iffy) at the very least. There will be hell to pay for if the EU does not reform and redefine itself, whether with or without the UK as a member. I’m rather hoping for a Euro-sceptic wave sweeping into the European Parliament next year, which will give the EU a five year headache and a lot more to think about. If they thought they have dealt with Euro-scepticism, they will have another much tougher thing coming.

    Marjorie, would I be correct in interpreting your forecast as meaning that it is more likely for there to be a deal rather than no-deal? Also, do you think that after having delivered a deal (or no-deal) by 29th March 2019, Theresa May would resign, say in the period of May 2019 to late 2020of a downhill slide that you have highlighted?

  6. “Will the member states get cold feet at the last moment when they see their commerce being affected and dent the intransigence of the Brussels technocrats? Maybe or maybe not, if it threatens to undercut the raison d’etre for a members-only EU.”

    No, sorry, they will not. If Brits are tired of this all, so are the EU citizens. The prevailing feeling among us is that just get it done, politely jump off that bridge and leave us to deal with the more acute problems we have. As said multiple times before, even Hard Brexit will have, at most, a 1 per cent negative effect to ANY EU member country GDP besides Ireland. Italian Government blackmailing EU is much more of a problem, right now (although Matteo Salvini is under enquiry for sequestring a migrant ship, which gives me some hope this craziness will pass).

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