The seizure of a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf has ramped up tensions between Iran, the UK and USA. It is possibly in retaliation for an Iranian tanker being detained off Gibraltar by Royal Marines which was thought to be carrying oil for Syria in breach of EU sanctions. The USA have tightened sanctions after unilaterally withdrawing from the nuclear deal, which the UK and EU still support.
The indications from both Iran charts suggest a degree of panic, delusion, disappointment or failure in the near future. The 7 October 1906 chart had the recent Cancer Solar Eclipse conjunct its over-hopeful, head-in-the-clouds Jupiter Neptune conjunction in Cancer; with tr Neptune moving to oppose the Mars which can be paralysing as plans fail mid November to mid December this year.
The Republic chart of 1 February 1979 9am chart has the Solar Arc Mars exactly square Neptune at the moment for the same effect. So whatever the future brings, this phase looks swampy for Iran. But countries in desperate straits which Iran is economically – can do desperate things.
The UK relationship charts with both Iran charts are in a tug of war for the upper hand on one chart – now and for the next three years. And considerably troubled with heightened reactions on the other again for several years ahead.
Getting the UK dragged into Trump’s wild foreign policy gestures just to keep him sweet for a trade deal is going to bring considerable risks. It will also presumably affect the price of oil if the Gulf of Hormuz becomes hazardous. See also post May 8 2019.
The crisis in the Gulf is almost entirely the result of President Trump’s decision to sabotage the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran – to spite his predecessor.
The dangers presented by this latest episode are all too clear, however: they are another step on the road to a crippling world recession if not a catastrophic military confrontation.
The crisis in the Gulf is almost entirely the result of President Trump’s decision to sabotage the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran – a major achievement not just of his predecessor President Obama but five major powers, including the UK, which were fellow signatories. Trump withdrew even though Iran had scrupulously observed the letter of that accord.
In fact, according to leaked cables from Britain’s former Ambassador to Washington Sir Kim Darroch – reported in this newspaper – Trump pulled out largely to spite Obama.
The one conspicuous dove in Trump’s circle, Paul believes Iran might well be willing to agree to a permanent, rather than time-limited, regime of nuclear inspections in return for sanctions relief. Facing re-election next year by a war-weary electorate, Trump must be urged to go for it with both hands.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7268741/Why-DID-seize-Irans-tanker-place-asks-historian-MICHAEL-BURLEIGH.html
How Trump’s arch-hawk lured Britain into a dangerous trap to punish Iran
With the seizure of a supertanker off Gibraltar, distracted UK government was set up by John Bolton as collateral damage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/20/britain-lured-into-deadly-trap-on-iran-by-trump-hawk-john-bolton
I note that Bolton is yet another individual who dodged the draft despite supporting the war in Vietnam. This seems to be a repeating theme amongst warmongering, aggressive chicken hawks in the current administration.
Looks like some people are seeking a Gulf of Tonkin moment
The British government appears just to be acting as a proxy here for Bolton who seems to be running US policy on Iran in the Trump administration. I am not sure what was the logic behind the UKs original seizure of the Iranian oil tanker off Gibraltar other than a desire to provoke Tehran into this response. Certainly years of defence cuts have left the UK navy in no position to protect British shipping in the Gulf. The manufactured nature of the crisis is rather highlighted by the fact that the only connection to the UK of the tanker seized by Iran was its place of registration. It is actually a Swedish owned ship with a multinational crew that contains no Britons. Of course, events might also be seen some last minute grandstanding by the outgoing May government who know that the consequences will have to be dealt with by its successor almost certainly led by Boris Johnson.
But nothing much happened, right, at the Gulf of Tonkin. It was “trumped-up” (now there’s a phrase…) to present as reason to get Congress to authorize US-action in Vietnam.
If politicians are looking to create a reason to go to war then I suspect it makes little difference if the incident is real or bogus as was the case at Tonkin.
The South Vietnamese ARVN were mounting commando raids into North Vietnam prior to the alleged Tonkin incident as part of Vietnams ongoing civil war. US ships stationed off shore while these attacks took place. The suspicion is that someone was looking to set up a scenario which create an event that could be used as an excuse for the US becoming actively engaged war. The US Maddox did engage North Vietnamese craft on the 2 August 1964. The actual Tonkin Incident took place after dark on 4 August and seems to have basically involved US naval ships shooting at an empty sea. This second phantom engagement was used to bounce the US Congress into backing war. One assumes if that had not worked some other scenario would have been set up to create that outcome.
This seems to be what is happening now with Iran. The UK seizing of the Iranian tanker looks to have been designed to create a matching response. The aim again looks to be to create a pretext for war. At the end of the day it does not really matter to those trying to trigger conflict whether they get a real event to trigger it or a phony one like Tonkin. The end result is all they care about.
Thanks, appreciate the summary.
‘shooting at an empty sea’, that’s what happened many times and the results are cruel; what a pressured pattern and 1964/2019 are heavy years with so many eclipses, for 2019 in JAN JULY DEC…
https://www.mondialisation.ca/fifty-eight-admitted-false-flag-attacks/5505411
The crisis in Iran I think is being fomented and probably sponsored by bad actors in the region, who want nothing more than to see American, and possibly British, blood spilt in the cause of regime change in Tehran. Not there own obviously. There are Strangelove madmen advocating a ‘ clean’ nuclear strike ffs. Iranians are very smart people and have sleeper cells everywhere, and powerful weapons pointing at Tel Aviv and other major cities. My ex is Anglo Iranian. This will be catastrophic imo.
I’m not convinced. The bottom line is it’s a lose lose situation and stirring up fear and threats on both sides may get someone jumpy enough to act before they think. This idea of a them or us stand off is outdated. We are all in the same boat. If something goes down we will all feel it’s effects with today’s advanced weaponry so i wouldn’t be drawing no line in the sand. People playing war with people’s lives. Madness!
And I wouldn’t trust that rash idiot in Saudi Arabia not to push it over the edge since he wants Iran crushed so he can be top dog. And look how well his Yemen strategy has worked (not).
Wendy
Maybe you know something all of us dont sense but your imagination is pretty impressive to say the least. Are you implying the Dems are working with Iran on some level? Yet i don’t recall you commenting on Trump working with the Russians on some level in the same manner? Or maybe i missed that. Yep… impressive I’ll give you that.
you are more generous to her than I would be.
Kerry in his own words was telling Iran “to wait out this administration”. You can’t find precedent for this in U.S. history. He has met four times with Iranian leadership and is actively undermining U.S. policy as a former sec of state which is unheard of.
If PDJT gets into a shooting battle with Iran, his presidency is effectively over.
If we were flies on the wall in the meeting room that Kerry was in with the Iranians, we would have heard Kerry telling the Iranians exactly that. Provoke him into a shooting war, get him out of office and look forward to working with a Dem president to help you get nukes.
John Kerry is trying to rid us of “PDJT”! Hooray!!!! Thank you Wendy for sharing that! Also your insider info that the next prez will be a democrat puts my mind at ease. However, how are we going to pry “PDJT” out of the White House? Use a trail of hamberders that leads to a limo full of porn stars?