Electoral College – adding more uncertainty

29 thoughts on “Electoral College – adding more uncertainty”

1. Relating to deep cultural divisions in the US there is a fascinating book, The Nine Nations of North America, published in 1981, by by Joel Garreau. I read it years ago and it is still worth the time to read. Wikipedia has an article on it. Any insight into potential cracks in the Electoral College comes in handy.

2. Regarding the electoral college – which some posters are calling “archaic” – careful! There is no such thing as a perfect electoral system because shrewd voters always adapt their behaviour to get the results they want.

   Electoral systems that have stood the test of time should always be respected, regardless of how inconvenient they are in the short term.

   It’s worth revisiting the 1860 Presidential election.

   Abraham Lincoln (Republican) 39.8% of the popular vote

   Stephen A. Douglas (Democratic) 29.5% of the popular vote

   John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democratic) 18.1% of the popular vote

   John Bell (Constitutional Union) 12.6% of the popular vote

   Turnout was a very high 81.2%

   If the Americans had the same system as the French where the top two go into a run-off, it is likely Douglas would have won.

   Remember, in ten states Lincoln didn’t get a single vote, and in a run-off scenario, people in those ten states who had voted for Bell or Breckinridge, would have piled in behind Douglas to keep Lincoln out.

   However, the United States has an electoral college system, and here are the results:

   Electoral College Results

   Abraham Lincoln (Republican): States carried 18; Electoral Vote 180 (59.4%)

   John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democratic): States carried 11; Electoral Vote 72 (23.76%)

   John Bell (Constitutional Union): States carried 3; Electoral Vote 39 (12.87%)

   Stephen A. Douglas (Democratic): States carried 1; Electoral Vote 12 (3.96%

   Under the Electoral College system, which had been in place since the inception of the Republic, Lincoln won. He did this by winning lots of small sparsely populated states like Delaware, Rhode Island and Oregon.

   The Democrats cried foul. They pointed out that 60.2% of the population voted against Lincoln, that he hadn’t got any votes at all in ten states, and declared the electoral college system flawed and biased. The Confederacy secceded and the civil war began.

   When Americans in 2024 complain about the Electoral College, they are repeating talking points from 1860. Do people really think Lincoln shouldn’t have won?

   Majorie – I’d love to see an astrological analysis of the 1860 election.

   • Candy,
     Hindsight is always 20/20. We’ll never fully know how taking the electoral college out of the equation in past elections might have altered history. And it’s clear from recent instances—Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016–that granting the Presidency to the candidate who doesn’t win the popular vote ultimately serves no-one’s best interest, and undermines trust in the electoral process.

3. Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick.
   https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

   • I don’t know if I want to open that.

     • I had the same thought but it’s worth reading

     • It’s OK. Santa will still deliver your presents this Xmas 😉

     • He’s predicting Kamala Harris will win….and he’s right: she is going to win.

4. I am always leery about being overly definite having struggled through multiple elections where the astro-fog was thick. It always seems obvious in hindsight, but rarely in advance. I’d think the upcoming trends Pluto in Aquarius, Uranus in Gemini and Saturn Neptune in Aries would tend to suggest a Democrat administration. And Harris’s tr Uranus conjunct Jupiter late November/December would suggest luck and success but alongside major setbacks as well. What is for certain is that the general mood will be extremely fraught.

   • My country, the flag waving USA, desperately needs a calming influence. So Marjorie, astrologically, do you see some type of calming influence coming within 1-2 years? Not a political figure. Something or someone different – from a different sphere of life being a great influence. Appreciate your response.

     • I wish I could say things smoothing out in the US, but the Uranus Return in 2028 suggests more upheaval to come, possibly even a major split of some kind in the country. America has experienced 2 Uranus Returns so far since its 1776 founding. The first Uranus Return took place in 1860 and sparked the Civil War. The second Uranus Return for the US took place in 1944, when the US truly became a nuclear power, culminating with the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945 to finish off WWII in the Pacific.

       With Uranus, it’s impossible to say for sure what 2028 will bring. My thoughts immediately go to the deepening divide between the two parties in the US and the fracturing of US society into competing ideological camps due to the incessant, decades-long culture wars. Whichever way the November election breaks, one side is going to feel energized and empowered, while the other will likely feel aggrieved and deeply frustrated, possibly at least in part due to the decidedly anti-democratic structure and functioning of the Electoral College.

       I think a Second Civil War, much as it has been talked about by some political scientists and flamethrowers on the margins, is unlikely, given that it would be an asymmetrical trench war between party alignments within states–between metropolitan cities and outlying rural towns–rather than a clear-cut battlefield with lines drawn between pro-slavery and abolitionist states, as was the case during the 1860s.

       In the event of a Harris victory, with the Dems claiming one or both houses in Congress, I do think the Democrats will collectively pursue aggressive reforms, and this might incite one or more Conservative/Republican-dominated states to organize a secession campaign to formally leave the US. Texas in particular comes to mind here as a perennial locale for such discussions about reclaiming its independence. Should Trump win and pursue the ultra-Reactionary Project 2025 agenda, I think we would see the opposite happening–California and other more liberal states pushing back aggressively against a Second Trump Administration, and possibly forming their own more-or-less formal confederation, if not also outright pursuing independence.

       We could also see a corresponding realignment of people in the US, with Republicans moving to states that they view as friendly to Conservative ideology, and Democrats moving to more friendly liberal locales. This is actually already happening, but the outcome of the 2024 election may only accelerate the current trend.

       Again, this is Uranus involved, so who knows, and only time will tell. We might instead see some unifying black swan event–an aggressive move from China or Russia against the US or one of its interests–that unifies the competing political factions in the US to present a united front against it, and perhaps generates its own novel issues and political camps.

       • Hi Clarence. One astrologer (don’t remember his name) thinks Texas might secede in 2028 due to a major opposition occurring. I can’t find the website. I don’t know how Dem voters in red states are going to be able to live out their lives if states secede. But my MAGA mother is already very anxious and panicking, saying she no longer has any personal freedom and needs to find a county “with freedom” where nobody will be bothering her. This must be the daily Fox diatribe that she absolutely accepts. And she now no longer wants to pay any form of taxes, whatsoever. I can only imagine what other hard core MAGA folks -even more extreme than her- are going to feel if KH wins.

5. Hi Marjorie, I agree with you on electoral college, in the past they have made a lot of surprises on election results, most of which didn’t make sense to most people. But looking into the future I see Kamala Harris making history winning the election and becoming the first female US president. This is from an astrological point of view it’s nothing personal. When it comes to Donald Trump, he is not going to win because of a lot of reasons, first one abortion rights, another LGBTQ issues, another his criminal record, another his morals, he is divisive. Majority of American people support abortion and inclusivity and are non racial, they believe in morals. I don’t see how he will win with his character. Well, I don’t stand with any of the candidates, the decision of who becomes the next president is that of American voters and electoral college, but my prediction from as astrology is Kamala Harris.

   • Add in Trump’s declining mental acuity and mental and physical health. He’s less able to complete a lucid sentence and rambles about nonsense interminably and also looks increasingly unwell. While the mainstream media hammered Joe Biden for his verbal stumbles, they do seem less focused on Trump’s likely dementia, which caused his father’s death.

6. I’m not sure Harris is going to win the election. I literally just came back to my extremely blue state. On the way, the friendliest Texans spent hours with me showing me various card games to play with her. She’s another person that would never support Harris. I think that it’s a fantasy to believe that everybody trusts the Democrats to just give them things for quote unquote free and that they’ll be happy with that. I don’t think they care what Trump says or does they just don’t like or want the policies of the Democrats. Where I live, you can park a filthy ratty camper in front of a homeowner’s house and deal drugs for days and the police can’t/won’t do anything about it. I went for a walk and it was once again just me and the creepy scary homeless guy trying to get me to engage in conversation with him. Home prices are over half a million dollars for a starter home here.I don’t see Republicans going for this. I’m a Democrat but I can see their point- thank you

   • Jody, clearly not everyone has to trust Harris and the Democrats, just enough that the archaic and clunky Electoral College does the job of granting her the Presidency. I’m with Andre below that the prevailing astrological trends favor an incoming period of progress over an extension of reactionary obstinacy and outrage for its own sake. I for one am glad to see Pluto end its sojourn in Capricorn on 19 Nov for our lifetimes. Maybe it will leave a final parting mark on all the conservative moralistic extremism for posterity also.

     • I really can’t say for sure whether Harris will win the presidency/ electoral college. I talked to some unsufferably woke women in Minneapolis that I was not particularly impressed by, but she’ll get their votes. With the exception of a young woman heading to Oberlin from her parents home in Brooklyn, every person I have talked to from coast to coast has either been a Trumper or their neighbors are. And this is in Rhode Island, Montana, and Texas. A young college graduate from Atlanta Georgia was moving to Boston and she shared with me that she realized that not everybody has her point of view of progressivism there in Boston and she was surprised in a little embarrassed. Heading back to the Pacific Northwest, we left Chicago Union Station and my seatmate was a woman of Color that was fed up for good with Chicago and was moving to Grand Forks North Dakota where she’ stated that the locals were very kind, unlike the people in Chicago, and that they her treated better and that she likely isn’t going to get killed by a drive-by shooting. She also said that they pay $18 an hour to work at McDonald’s in Grand Forks and that Chicago wanted to pay her $16.50 to work at the hospital. She said she has 11 grandchildren and that North Dakota is a way better fit for her than Chicago with this unending crazy gun violence. Also, New York state is very conservative. Everyone thinks those people are all liberal and it’s not true. I’m liberal but I’m not drinking that fake Kool-Aid of everybody has my values and that everybody should have my values. Thank you

       • and the corrolating astrological trends are….. just personal?

         • What you said- thanks. At the end of the day, I’m with Marjorie.

         • Thank you for acknowledging .
           My response went to the ether. Hope she recognizes it was meant for her.

       • @Jody, I’ve been involved in or followed politics closely since I was 11 — although I can’t believe it, that’s over 60 years.

         Two things you have to remember when you look at attitudes in specific places, like conservative or liberal areas of the country:

         People tend to cluster in areas that mirror their ideology. E.g., people moving from liberal regions of California to conservative Texas. I have friends who left rural Montana for a small Vermont city partly because they no longer felt comfortable because of the state’s increasingly right-wing politics. So finding pleasant people living in deep red areas and unpleasant people in deep blue cities is no surprise.

         The more important point is that elections always come down to motivation and voter turnout. Which party has the greater enthusiasm and motivation to get people to mail in their ballots or turn out on election day? And sometimes holding down the opposition’s edge of victory in some races — I’m looking at Trump’s inevitable victory over Harris in Montana — by as little as two or three points will be enough to carry Democratic Senator Jon Tester over the finish line.

         Running successful campaigns is both an art and a science. Right now I’d give the enthusiasm and motivation edge to Kamala’s team, which also seems more astute, agile and tuned into voters. Trump’s team seems more focused on pleasing him. And you need to look also at the empty seats at his rally arenas now and the people leaving early as Trump drones on as an indicator of enthusiasm.

         So — let me add a third point when looking at potential electoral outcomes: look at the quality and agility of the campaign team and who are their supporters. Liz Cheney and John McCain’s son in the army just endorsed Kamala. Money matters enormously, but so do skill and the willingness of volunteers to do the work.

         A fourth point: For turnout operations the Dems have a tested, well-oiled operation. This year Trump and the Republicans have privatized and outsourced their turnout operations to a new, unknown organization with little track record.

         It’s important to look at the fundamentals when predicting possible outcomes. No one would have bet on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beating Joe Crowley, a member of the Democratic leadership with lots of money, but she had the advantages of freshness, enthusiasm, skilled organization and volunteers — and she won.

         Apologies for the long post and lack of astrology. Just looking at the basics from a lifetine organizing election and turnout teams — and winning and losing many races. (And some seasons I had my fingers in as many as 24 campaigns at a time. I did burn out.)

         • Thank you for sharing. I certainly hope that you’re right. I admire your detailed thought process and excellent explaining skills. I think sometimes that we can sit in our privileged state, safe and sound, and predict what other people are going to do. But like the lady in Chicago I chatted with, she doesn’t have the option to really sit and think about it -she’s really in dire straits and has to make like a major choice to move to a completely different culture than she’s used to. I just found it to be kind of fascinating when I saw people from let’s say Sacramento or LA and they have like the gang member tattoos on their fingers, and they’re moving to Iowa to go work on a farm because they want to get away from California because that is so crime infested, dangerous and unsafe, not to mention ridiculously unaffordable for housing. I wonder if that move to the red state will cause them to think more conservatively and vote more conservatively? So I think that sometimes we speak from a standpoint of privilege, so we speculate ,where other people have to make hard choices. Thank you so much for your time and attention and for replying to me, Nicole:)

     • You know, I kind of miss the go-go Pluto in Sag years on some level. Jupiter’s rulership & influence grants such an abundance—almost a never-ending party on some level—though obviously there were extremes of ideology and religion abounding, just on a different vibe compared to these Saturn-ruled Pluto in Capricorn years. These years have at times felt quite heavy and stifling, particularly around the Saturn-Pluto conjunction and the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic.

       While Saturn remains in the picture as the original ruler of Aquarius back to antiquity, I think we will be feeling the modern rulership of Uranus much moreso these next 20 years, and with it a lot more freedom and openness on multiple fronts. It won’t be quite the party that the Pluto in Sag years were, but I do think we’ll see whatever comes as a result of group dynamics and shared interests rising to the fore as not experienced in our lifetimes.

     • The electoral college is not archaic. Without it, California and New York would dictate elections for the rest of the country based on population alone. The electoral college protects “minority” votes, making sure they’re nationally represented, which is what a Democratic Republic should be.

   • I’m sorry. I apologize. I can’t track your train of thought. I’m not quite who your ‘they’ are.. don’t get your reference to a card game. Don’t understand your reference to quote unquote free.
     Cripes, why don’t you contact your local representatives and make them aware of your perceived problem with the homeless?.
     Maybe the creepy scary homeless guy was just asking for water. But you didn’t listen so you will never know. Will you, Rockheart?

7. Marjorie, I presume you meant Mars trine Neptune, sextile Uranus, for January 20. To me, this will favor Kamala Harris, because it indicates a forward-looking, and perhaps more visionary than expected, presidency. I think she is now limited by the need to respect Biden’s considerable legacy. The Inaugural Address will set her free, notably with respect to Israel, where she may follow Starmer’s example and limit arms shipments, which could have great impact.

   Admittedly, there will be considerable turmoil after the election. This is shown by the continuing square to the US Moon, which reflects the fact much of the people will be upset by the result, and the three Mars-Pluto oppositions, that do no bode well for social stability. Unrest should gradually decline until Uranus enters Gemini for good in 2026, when the US Uranus return brings another great crisis, perhaps external, in 2027-2028 when Saturn also squares Pluto.

   However, overall astrological indications remain positive in my view. The coming sextiles between Uranus and Neptune, and Pluto and Neptune, as well as the trine between Pluto and Uranus, in addition to the Saturn-Neptune conjunction of 2026, should bring great social and humanitarian progress, probably because the level of human suffering in the world will have become intolerable and incompatible with the present international system, which will evolve as it has under similar fundamental aspects in the past.

   In the short term, the US Chiron return, which astrologers rarely mention, is a strong concurrent indication of a time of healing for that country, as it did when Nixon resigned and the Vietnam war ended in 1974-75, ending other nightmares, followed by the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976. This unfortunately short-lived period of greater harmony should begin when the Chiron return is exact in November.

   None of this favors a win for Trump. The last transit of Pluto in Capricorn, which he has represented for the worst, should signal the end of his political career. Pluto in Aquarius already has brought him, and will continue to bring him, mounting difficulties, that will probably define his negative legacy and the rest of his earthly existence.

   • Andre, I thank you from the bottom of my now lifted and lightened heart for your post

8. I live in Tyler, Texas which is considered to be one of the most conservative areas of Texas.
   Our governor, a major Trump supporter, refuses to raise our minimum wage, which is currently
   $ 7.25/hr. That means that it is extremely difficult to find an entry level or basic job here that
   pays over 9 or 10 bucks an hour. If you order a pizza, and use the international pizza corporation
   delivery service instead of an outside food delivery, your driver who delivers it only receives $ 7.25
   for an hour’s work, unless you personally give the driver a tip. Ironically, the internationally known
   pizza corporation charges you 5 dollars delivery fee on top of your pizza charge, that 5 dollars does
   NOT go to your driver. However, there is nowhere on the delivery screen that indicates this. So
   many people assume that is the tip, and often will not tip. I found this out when I personally asked
   at the pizza delivery site.

   I had my oil changed in my car recently, it was very hot outside and I was the only customer at the
   time. A very nice, extremely clean cut professional young man, very Hispanic and very well mannered,
   changed the oil in my car all by himself because they were short staffed. While he was taking my
   payment, I told him that I am disgusted by how awful our governor treats Hispanics, especially young
   Hispanics who Texans rely upon to operate businesses. He quietly confided in me that recently a man
   pulled into the shop. This young Hispanic man hopped into the man’s vehicle in order to drive it into the
   service area. The man stopped him and ordered him out of his vehicle. The man pointed toward a
   white employee, telling the young Hispanic employee that he would only allow the white employee to
   move his vehicle. I truly believe that happened because of our horrible governor and Trump always
   insisting that Hispanics are all here illegally, and criminals. This vile rhetoric is ripping our culture and
   community apart.

   I realize my comment is not about the electoral college. However, I am extremely concerned about the election.

   • Sherry, I truly believe those old, ugly people are dying out (please god) and when Kamala wins this election her leadership and her values will permeate this nation to the degree that trumps and his minions’ ugly angry spewing will be wiped back to the swamp they came from. I am enough of a pessimist to know they will not be eradicated …and all my astrological references for this post can be read in Andre’s previous, wonderful post. Okay, Marjorie:)