




Panic is in the air everywhere and economic journalists tend to see catastrophes beyond every bend in the road. But there are worrying indicators beginning to flash red. One is government debt which is massively up everywhere. Biden probably spent more even than Trump. In the UK, newly-arrived Starmer is discovering there is no wiggle room for spending on welfare improvement since the cupboards are bare with public debt already over stretched. France is heading for a knuckle-rapping from Brussels for the scale of its overspend.
There is evidently another worry which to economic illiterates (like me) sounds like the pre 2008 financial leveraged jiggery pokery.
Trying to simplify (what I don’t entirely understand) is the insertion of private equity into – everywhere – family homes to supermarkets and cosmetics companies — even hospitals. Think about veterinarians being bought over by finance companies. Think about the Royal Mail being bought on debt.
An analyst cautioned in April there were “natural questions about the risks of these financing arrangements, and the growth in kinds and quantity of leverage, or ‘leverage on leverage’, throughout the ecosystem”. The debt that ties private equity in with the banks, insurance companies and other groups means that any stress in the industry could ripple across the wider financial system. “The opacity, complexity, and interconnectedness of the sector have made assessing its developments difficult.” “There should not be a pocket of the market that touches on so much of the economy in such a sizeable way.”
The US Federal Reserve Bank, 16 November 1914, is under severe pressure and panic as tr Saturn Neptune move into Aries from May 2025 onwards to square the Saturn Pluto in Cancer; with a further layer of panic in 2026 with Solar Arc Neptune conjunct the Fed Res Sun and tr Uranus in an insecure square to the Mars.
The Bank of China, 1 December 1948, is also heading for 2026 as a crisis time, building up from this year onwards as tr Neptune squares the Uranus and peaking when tr Saturn Neptune square the Mars Jupiter at the same time as a tr Uranus square the Pluto in 2026 as well.
Bank of Australia is in serious trouble in 2025/26. Bank of Canada ditto in 2026/27. Bank of Switzerland is into calamity zone by and through 2025. France hits high stress from mid 2025, worsening through into 2027/28.
The European Central Bank, depending on whether the original 1973 chart or the later 1 January 1999, or even 1 June 1998, is showing extreme stress from mid 2025 right through for several years.
All of the central banks will be coping with additional turbulence as they face the csonequences of having borrowed too much when the going was cheap.
The huge private equity firms which are behind much of the other worry are tricky to pin down astrologically since they often start as private firms without dates and then sell multiple times over the years.
But the Carlyle Group launched on Nasdaq on 3 May 2012 will not respond favourably to Uranus moving into Gemini from mid 2025 and will be more stressed in 2026 and by 2027 is looking blocked and deprived.
Blackstone, 1 October 1985, is heading for the buffers in 2025 as its Solar Arc Pluto squares its Mars, which if accurate will grind it to a halt. Followed by hugely disruptive 2026 as SA Pluto is conjunct the Uranus.
Dyal Capital which merged into Blue Owl, 19 May 2001, is feeling a chill wind at the moment with tr Neptune square the Mars; with major jolts and upsets in 2026/27.
Whether it is political leaders or greedy financiers leading the way, the end result never seems to be helpful.
See previous posts: Banks at Risk 17 March 2023; Debt levels 26 October 2023.