Angela Merkel is facing a critical regional election this Sunday in Hesse which is being seen as make-or-break for her political future. Her party did less well than expected at last year’s general election and earlier this month there was a big drop in support for her Bavarian allies. Questions are being raised about whether she will seek another two-year term as her CDU party’s leader when they hold their congress this December. She shows no sign of wilting but the tide is not running in her favour.
Exactly now (to within five minutes of a degree = one twelfth) she has a car-crash Solar Arc Sun square her Mars in Sagittarius. With tr Neptune just this week picking up the debilitating square to her Ascendant, running through till late December, which will undermine her image.
She has tr Saturn downers in this December and early January; and major upheavals and disruptions from late March 2019 on and off till late 2019 with tr Pluto in a confusing square to her Neptune and opposition her Uranus.
She’s remarkably tough and steady with four 8th house planets including her Sun; and a Mars trine Pluto. But tr Saturn now about to hit the nadir of her low-profile First Quadrant moving into her 2nd now and that is usually bad news for politicians’ ambitions for the next two years. Plus a panicky-failure Solar Arc Neptune conjunct her Mars in later 2019 and another shock from Solar Arc Uranus square her Mars also in 2019.
See previous post July 3 2018.
Some suggestions on what this means:
Merkel will definitely seek re-election to CDU Leadership given there is European Parliament Election coming in March. This is very important election for Merkel’s whole legacy, since the group CDU belongs to, EPP, is bound to lose their majority. This means they have to reach to other groups to have their “spiezenkandidat” for European Commission Presidency.
Not only that, since the current President, Jean-Claude Juncker, won’t seek second term, they need to find new candidate. CDU backed Bavarian CSU MEP Manfred Weber early on, thinking he wouldn’t be challenged credibly. However, CSU had a disastrous result in Bavarian Elections, losing votes not only to Nationalist AfD, but more socially liberal Centrist or Center Left parties. In Europe, Weber is now challenged by Alexander Stubb, a Nordic Moderate with socially liberal views. Stubb is a press favorite (he has been a profilic commentator all through his political career), and could be “digested” by Liberal group ALDE and even some Socialists, while Weber would be harder to sell to the, but maybe easier to sell to current Nationalists.
EPP candidate will be determined in Helsinki, November 8th, and while Merkel’s backing gives Weber an edge now, Weber as a “spitzenkandidat” could be a devastating to CDU’s importance in March. And, once CDU loses their leadership in Europe, it will be more difficult for them at home, too.
Given bad times for Merkel starting in March, I suspect EPP will struggle even more than thought before, and lead to major realignment in European politics.
Sorry, European Parliamentary Elections are in May. Still, they will be the most important European Elections ever, and vital to Merkel, too.
I know very little about German politics, but she always seems to be facing some crucial domestic vote or party political power struggle at home, but seems very strong in Europe and Internationally. Is this odd or unexpected for a Cancerian?
I responded to this above, her power in Europe lies mainly on CDU having been the leading party of the leading group EPP in European Parliament.This is at stake in May 2019. If the trend continues, CDU/CSU will lose 5 to 10 seats. At least two major parties in that group, Italian Forza Italia and French Republicans will be also annihilated, cutting EPP representation in European Parliament potentilly with as many as 25-30 places.