Is France the canary in the coal mine for European democracies including the UK? Facing unmanageable state debt, overburdened with welfare and state sector spending with a population unwilling to grasp the nettle and vote for cutbacks, the runaway train hurtles ever faster towards the buffers.
William Hague, ever a sane voice in a political storm, points to the years before the 1789 French Revolution when ministers knew they were presiding over an unsustainable situation and attempted to save the French state from eventual bankruptcy. All of them were thwarted by the vested interests of their day: tax-exempt nobles and churches, restrictive trade guilds and regional parlements. Plus ca change. ‘Today’s vested interests are trade unions and political parties who refuse to take any responsibility.’
‘The UK, France and Germany are in a strikingly similar position – established governing parties are on a road to disaster, facing defeat at the hands of populist parties that are untested, more divisive, with less sense of financial responsibility and a weaker commitment to defending the continent.’
With markets breathing down its neck and debt spreads widening, France is facing economic meltdown unless it can pass an austerity budget to rein in the Eurozone’s worst deficit.
To remedy this, another commentator pointed out, the Left says “take it from the rich and big business, the Right and centre say slash state spending to ‘slim down the mammoth’, and the National Rally says the culprits are immigration and the EU”. “Each has its magic solution, which generally entails not asking the average French person to make any effort whatsoever.”
There is not much to add to the previous France post: France – in the eye of the storm, 27th August 2025.
The Revolutionary France chart of 1789 is certainly under water with Eclipses plus Scheat plus tr Neptune Saturn all assaulting its last degree Virgo Sun.
France 5th Republic chart, 28 September 1958 6pm is equally at a critical point with the Solar Arc Uranus conjunct the North Node almost exactly now. With a great deal of insecurity and aggravation from tr Uranus conjunct the Mars and next year square the Pluto into 2027; with major confusion and dented hopes as tr Pluto squares the over hopeful Neptune Jupiter in 2026/27. And tr Saturn Neptune oppose the Libra Sun in 2026/27. If anything it gets worse towards the end of the decade with Solar Arc Saturn square Mars and opposition Pluto.
Emmanuel Macron may not survive much longer politically though he insists he is not giving in and his departure will solve very little. His original Presidency chart of 14 May 2017 11.25am is in an unstable three years with the Solar Arc Pluto square the Uranus in 2024 when an ill judged snap election gave him even more problems. SA Pluto moves into to a divisive, inflammatory square to Mercury by 2026 as the same time as the Solar Arc MC is conjunct the Presidency Uranus – all wobbling on a cliff edge.
His relationship chart with France certainly indicates 2026 as the year when it all blows up with tr Saturn Neptune opposition the composite Mars Uranus.
Tomorrow September 10th sees a general strike amusingly entitled Block Everything – the French as ever turning their face against reality and obdurately refusing to accept the need for change.
The French government seems to have made tax cuts for the rich without balancing the books so the deficit has ballooned. The supply side economic gains have been poor.
Meanwhile non European immigration has exploded, Dimitri Palenkov has explored the cost of it and if he is correct it is extremely negative as in UK and Germany. The countries that controlled it Denmark Poland and Hungary are doing very well with much lower debt and protecting their welfare states. I love France with all my heart but where will it be in ten years time. Marjorie and André can you elaborate?
The French Revolution was circa 236 years ago. I know it may be 12 years until the next return . Yet France’s Current 5th Republic Chart has transiting Pluto in Aquarius coming into a sextile orb to its Moon within the next few years. Currently transiting Pluto in Aquarius is trining its Mars in Gemini and in quincunx to its Pluto in the sixth house – working political environment? This may be the beginning to a long period in which Pluto gradually changes the way France is Governed. As Pluto is the hidden underworld, the Moon in Gemini may precipitate a long process of a split and reform?
It is also worth noting that transiting Pluto in Aquarius ruled by Uranus will square the Jupiter/Neptune conjunction in Scorpio – ruled by Pluto, making Pluto the more powerful. Politics, Religion and Philosophy and other people’s Money ? Just looked this combination up in Ebertin’s book – “ Plans unreasonable beyond measure- far reaching speculations”. No happy ending then?
André, Thomas Piketty is one of the Keynesians who think that strong government intervention is needed, even if France public spending accounts for 57.3% of the GDP (the highest government expenditure-to-GDP in the Western world)…
And the Keynesian Multiplier (= the economy flourishes as the government increases spending) has been negative for the last 15 years, in France.
The mismanagement of the state by the political class has led to general impoverishment, while the young and gifted leave the country, because work and initiative are not rewarded – you earn the same as people who don’t work ( France has a tax-to-GDP ratio of 43.8% compared with the OECD average of 33.9%).
The French are concerned about the state of permanent instability plaguing the country but, as you say, because of the general lack of economic literacy, most of them still ask for more public spending.
The 5th Republic’s SA Saturn/MC in Aquarius square n Mars and opposite n Pluto may bring systems change and restrictions for the masses. There is not much to look forward to!
But e.g. the UK underwent years of austerity and taxes rises and has a smaller government – would you say the Brits live better? Are the French then right to keep their right, but when they start eroding even by a bit – it is a fast downhill ride from there?
I dropped the last copy of this – stray comments are not needed. Go check your facts. UK welfare and government spending are way out of control. And no one but no one apart from the misguided French think they can continue to be feather bedded as they have been. Not sustainable
If France is near collapse it is because of Macron’s governance.Period.You say that new “populist parties that are untested, more divisive, with less sense of financial responsibility and a weaker commitment to defending the continent.’
You couldn’t get less financial responsibility and more divisiveness than from Macrons party-with historic debt levels.
‘ The French Ministry of Defense has revealed the total amount of military aid given to Ukraine between 24 February 2022 and 31 December 2023, amounting to a staggering €3.8 billion, including Paris’ contribution to the European Peace Facility (which-incidentally-has nothing to do with peace-just another Orwellian label.)
Macron, ‘the president of the rich’, as he is nicknamed, as a former Rothschild banker, has increased poverty under his watch, according to Le Monde,” the poverty rate in France has reached 15.4 per cent, the highest level since records began in 1996. Furthermore, the gap between the wealthiest and poorest 20 per cent has increased to levels not seen for half a century.”
As well, under neoliberal Macron, France has seen the highest levels of illegal immigration because of his open border policies.
Antonia, Why so much bile? Your posts at times have my finger veering towards the block button.
I wave no flags for Macron but France’s debt problems preceded him with a historic bloated state sector which the French public have always refused to see cut back. His initial efforts to slash it ended in failure when the pitchforks came out on the streets.
Two years ago he forced through tougher immigration legislation, making it more difficult for migrants to bring family members to France and delays their welfare benefits access.
He has been a failure but your kneejerk assumption that it all stems back to Rothschild is misleading.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/07/08/macron-s-disappointing-record-on-poverty_6743163_23.html
Well said, Marjorie!
France has had 4 Royal Dynasties, 3 Revolutions, 2 Empires and 5 Republics. It is a lot more resilient as a country than its political institutions. Though it appears unstable now it is worth remembering that during the Fourth Republic between 1946 and 1958 there were 21 governments in just 12 years. Even the UK has not managed that recently.
Indeed. The Fifth Republic has been a success since 1959 in providing greater stability, but it is in dangerous waters because of the growing gap between the economic classes, the entitlements offered by l’État-providence and the general lack of economic literacy. France has a national debt that is 114% of GDP, which is now worse than Italy which has a better grip under Meloni, and on a par with Greece when it went under. This iis a stark warning to the UK. Social unrest may engulf both countries as well as Germany. The Chinese dictator may believe that will be the best moment to take over Taiwan. In comparison, Canada’s debt is 42% of GDP. France is a mismanaged country and Macron’s highly visible role on the world stage did not change that basic reality.
Thomas Piketty, the noted French economist, wrote in Captialism in the 21st century, that the French Revolution did not significantly change the distribution of wealth in France. Then until now, and even in the UK, the solution to national debt problems has ever been deliberate inflation by increasing the money supply to devalue private holdings of the national debt and more recently of public pensions, which are another example of the debt.