The European Union could die because of overregulation and underinvestment says Emmanuel Macron and is running out of time to survive as he backs Mario Draghi’s plea for an investment fund to combat the rise of Chinese and American dominance. Macron said the bloc’s failure to meet the challenges posed by global economic rivalry was due to Europe’s social model, based on high levels of social regulation and welfare.
The doomsayers are growing in number with many giving the EU only another 20 years, citing over-enthusiastic enlargement taking in eastern European states and problems with immigration as key issues as well as under investment.
The two EU charts 1957 and 1993 both point to major problems before the end of this decade, never mind 20 years.
The original 31 December 1957 chart has a blocked Solar Arc Pluto opposition the 8th house financial Moon and square Uranus in 2025 with tr a disruptive Uranus square the Pluto in 2026 alongside a devastating tr Pluto square the 2nd house Neptune – which suggests a forced change of direction due to financial crises. 2026 also has the Solar Arc Mars square the 2nd house Neptune for more financial agonies. But it is 2029/30 which looks like the nadir with tr Pluto in Aquarius opposition the Moon and square Uranus; with an undermining tr Neptune square the Sun and a seriously stuck/deprived SA Saturn opposition Pluto.
The Maastricht Treaty chart, 1 November 1993, also pitches the end of this decade as a nightmare. The Solar Arc Uranus Neptune will conjunct the Saturn in 2028 which looks beyond calamitous especially in terms of neighbourly relations with the Solar Arc Uranus Neptune moving to square the Mars Pluto in Scorpio by 2029. If it survives all that it’ll be a miracle. Plus tr Pluto square the Scorpio Sun which can be a splitting apart transit.
What may be pertinent is that the ‘big bang’ enlargement of 1 May 2004 which brought in Czechia, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia has a 10 degree Taurus Sun which will catch the tr Pluto square in 2029/2030 which could indicate a USSR-style split with the eastern satellites going off in a different direction to Brussels.
Even the Roman Empire finally split into east and west in an effort to restore stability.
Add On: Germany has been undergoing considerable changes since Merkel exited stage left with tr Pluto opposition the 10th house Uranus and tr Uranus conjunct the 8th house Pluto. What Germany wanted before in terms of goals and visions for the future is no longer held up as an ideal. Tr Neptune and Saturn moving into Aries from mid 2025 will undermine morale and hit Germany hard as it opposes the Mars and squares the Saturn in 2025/26. And again it will be late decade where seismic forces emerge with Solar Arc conjunct the Germany Saturn in 2028 and SA Pluto square the Uranus in 2029, at the same time as tr Neptune squares the Capricorn Sun.
I remember a year or two back looking at the relationships charts and blinking at the Germany/EU bond which heretofore had seemed immoveable. Much more than France, it was Germany feeling the strain with the EU. On the 1957 relationship chart, tr Pluto moving round a composite Fixed T square of Mars opposition Moon square Venus, exerting almost unbearable pressure for change, has started its trip this year and the challenges magnify in 2025/26 and more so in 2027/28; with Neptune threatening to dissolve the ties-that-bind later this decade as it squares the composite Sun opposition Pluto.
The Germany/Maastricht Treaty relationship chart also points to 2027/28 as critical years.
There are some ripples on the France/EU charts and the France/Germany relationship chart, but nothing like as strong.
At the very least there will be a massive realignment of aims and understandings.
Add On: Poland is becoming a major player – though unfortunately charts for Poland are iffy since it has had such a muddled history. Useful piece in today’s Times by Edward Lucas. Poland is economically in a good position, fuelled by floods of foreign investment, with a strong work ethic and an economy nine times bigger than in 1989. They spend 5 per cent of GDP on their armed forces and have the third-largest armed force in Nato (after the US and Turkey) propelled by a healthy suspicion of their Russian neighbour.
Poland is looking north to like-minded countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Sweden and Finland have joined Nato. Denmark is boosting its defence spending. The combined GDP of this nascent northeastern “minilateral” alliance is £2.4 trillion, a combined population of 70 million and an economy nearly the size of Russia’s. Poland and its regional allies are preparing for the worst, and to fight alone if necessary given that Biden’s administration ‘paralysed by indecision and timidity’ has undermined the USA’s clout.
Why on earth the original model of the EEC changed so dramatically, is beyond comprehension.
The fanciful goal to create a superstate was doomed. Without the centralisation of complete monetary, defence, education, social and health policy, it was never going to be possible predominantly because the good people of Europe have unique history and cultural differences. Good riddance to corruption. Freedom to the people.
The fundamental mistake of the EU was to imagine that economic union would inexorably lead to political union. I suspect this route was chosen as it was how German unification was conducted in the 19th century. It rather neglected the fact that the differences between the old German principalities was a lot less than between the sovereign states within the EU. Without a unified defence, border, health, tax and benefit system the result was always going to be that there would be attempts by individuals, businesses and nation states to arbitrage the set up for their own advantage. At times of political or economic pressure these narrow self interests prevent collective action. Unfortunately history tends to show that the only successful political supra national unions in Europe have been imposed by force where one centralising authority dictates the standards for all.
Also, German Reunification required the genius of Bismarck to stage two wars (Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian wars) in a short period of six years to drive it through.
Who is the Bismarck of the modern era? And how many wars can the EU afford?
To add to your last sentence, nothing in the EU hasn’t been tried before and worked. Monetary Unions were very common in Western Europe (see Latin Monetary Union and Scandinavian Monetary Union) fixed by reference to gold.
The Holy Roman Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were both multi ethnic empires (dominated by German interests).
The latter fell to an external dominating personality (Napoleon), the latter to ethnic divisions after an external war.
@Si The seed for the transformation of the EEC into the EU was always there. The other example of things that do not happen as expected is China, from about 1979 the capitalist economic model which they now follow has not transformed into democracy, the communist party with its totalitarian stance has become ever more entrenched.
@Virginia: Chinese communism versus Soviet communism?
@larryc That is correct Chinese communism is proving quite effective at infiltrating many places on several continents, it grew under our noses, it veered away in the early days from a system to benefit the Chinese people to an aggressive, acquisitive entity.
2028 is shaping up to be a very dark year with the US Uranus return and Saturn square Pluto. Pressure on the EU should not be seen in isolation but in a wider context. Putin may fall at the Saturn-Neptune conjunction which always has a major impact on Russia, thereby creating much instability in Eastern Europe. Germany may be governed by a far-right party or be under its influence. And war may have broken out in Asia if China attacks Taiwan. I don’t think Europe would be on the front lines of a major conflict, but the rupture of economic ties with China would be disastrous for the German economy. What is likely and rational in the long run is a West European federal superstate after Eastern Europe is cut off. The UK would then again have to decide in the 2030s if it wants to join.
Are you suggesting an Eastern European economic bloc might come to be?
It might, but it all depends on how the Ukraine war ends.
Two questions;
What chat to consult for the UK-EU relationship? Would it be the chart for the time of Brexit? Or would it be a UK-EU composite chart?
Also, any thoughts on how the Euro will look like in the next five years? You have predicted a financial crisis in the next year or so. How will the Euro survive that?
Germany has experience in exitting a currency overnight (when it switched from the Rentenmark to the Deutsche Mark overnight in 1948). Any similar vibes about Germany leaving the Eurozone? Because that would be an awful shock to the global markets.
Thank you, Marjorie. I met a young Austrian physician who was attending a medical conference with other young doctors from all over the globe. In conversation, he shared that he refused to practice medicine in Austria and instead works in Switzerland. Apparently conditions there are better for workers in Switzerland.He said he can’t stand giving up 60% of his earnings for people that he said don’t work, or contribute, but rather complain that the money/income they are receiving on welfare just isn’t enough. He also said that there’s been a lot of harassment from the Austrian government towards his mother since she opened several successful daycare centers over the years in Austria that he claimed were of higher quality than the government funded daycares. He really sounded fed up with things there.
@Hugh Fowler, I feel Germany is loosing power. They were the military power, and shifted to an economic power. But lately, they seem unable to move. This is very visible with the war in Ukraine. Counting out the UK, the countries where the public opinion is most staunchly supporting Ukraine tend to be the ones that have been in Germanic sphere of influence since the Hanseatic Alliance. We – I include myself hete – honestly feel Germany has failed to take a moral leadership here, failing time after time to meet the call for a moral leadership.
But I also see this in the corporate world. I have noticed there’s a shift in corporate world where the market division seems to be lumping Benelux, Nordic, Poland, and Baltics together, because these areas would bring a smilar revenue to German speaking countries. And I see consolidation in Slavic speaking Central Europe around Poland, which has the largest population and a solid economic growth.
It is certainly true that Germany has become paralysed by its own over regulation. I can certainly envisage a scenario where the Central European countries pull away from the EU and try to take Germany with them which would certainly put huge stresses on that country and the rest of the ‘old’ block. Hugh’s analysis is – as always – very incisive. I agree with you Solaia that Poland could become pivotal in all of this.
It is no secret that there is a major spilt at the moment between the French and the Germans about tariffs. In addition the two countries disagree fundamentally about the role of nuclear power in reducing carbon emissions across the EU. As a consequence on fundamental topics such as trade and energy there is no real agreement.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-germany-olaf-scholz-europe-global-threats-economy-china-american-protectionism/
The EU’s fortunes are inextricably tied up with the political and economic fate of Germany. It was a founder member of the original community in 1957 and when the Iron Curtain collapse its reunification laid the foundation for the expansion of the EU to the East in a kind of updated “Drang nach Osten”. Germany’s 1871 natal Mars at 0 Libra is going to feel the full impact of the opposition from the Neptune/Saturn conjunction at 0 Aries in 2026. Its progressed Moon will also be conjoining its natal Sun and South Node at that time. The Germany 1871 Solar Arc chart is very stressed in 2028. The SA Mars at 6 Pisces square the SA Saturn in Gemini will be activated by transiting Uranus and Mars in Gemini and also by the Pluto/Saturn square on the 24 June 2028 at 8 Aquarius/8 Taurus. The Pluto in that set up will be exactly trine the German SA Saturn and the transiting Saturn will sextile the SA Mars. This repeats at the second Pluto/Saturn square on 15 November 2028. My guess is that any break up of the EU will be triggered by Germany. If that occurs the question maybe whether it looks West or East for its future.
In the EU chart, we have a current firdaria period of Mercury/Jupiter. Mercury rules
the EU 1st and 10th Houses and is in effect until July 27, 2025. Mercury is conj
malefic Saturn, shrinkage, and malefic Pluto. Jupiter is conj Neptune, erosion
of assets, and square malefic Uranus, sudden upsets.and opposes Moon-South Node
in the 8th.
In the EU expanded chart, it’s in a JUPITER/Jupiter period, until Jan 16, 2026.
Jupiter conjuncts Moon, ruler 8th in 9th of foreign relations and trines Sun-North Node
in Taurus.
I don’t see a split or collapse based on the EU Expanded chart’s Jupiter just
starting a major period and not affected by malefics.
@Martha
Thank you for this interesting post, would you care to expand a bit more, are you saying that the EU will hold and thrive with only a few obstacles in its progress.
Many thanks
He seems to say it will not split, though it is also a mixed bag, depending on the chart you look at.
What has blame got to do with it? ‘Eastern countries’ have different interests, cultures and historical experience. So what? Vive la difference!
Sorry. This was a reply to El Aznar.
So we are back on track for a ‘Two-speed Europe’. Actually it makes sense. Tackling corruption particularly in former Comecon states is still an issue. They want the benefits but not the burdens. Although it has to be said that lack of investment seems to be a far wider issue than just in the EU. But a two tier EU or even two separate economic blocs could help break the present log jam. Change is certainly necessary.
Micron never ceases to amaze. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the general government gross debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA20) stood at 88.7%, compared with 88.2% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. Those investors better rush into this goldmine!
The problem here is that blaming “eastern countries” as a problem and singling them out sounds awfully discriminatory and not very nice.
Thanks for this. By the way, these countries refer to themselves as “Central Europe” and they have centuries-old, deep cultural ties with the rest of Europe.
Often difference countries in the EU get blamed for something. Your observation could stand anywhere in the world, or even in individual country’s counties or provinces. Europe is full of tribes and alliances or dislikes. This will never change. Britain and France have had many a spat, one ruled the other with the Norman conquest. Britain spoke French for centuries. The EU Enlargement 2004 Chart has the Lillith/Mars midpoint is on Venus in its 7th Gemini. Gemini is the twins. Therefore, one could argue that there is always going to be opposing talks and views. The 8th house Saturn in Cancer is sextile Jupiter in the 9th house ruled by Virgo. Sextiles can work purposely together. With Saturn and Jupiter planets involved it could read that a huge amount of work is put into keeping together the philosophy of the EU. Any sensible leaders will see that differences of opinions will always happen. The Sun is trine the Moon with its midpoint in Cancer alongside Saturn. There is a strong sense of commitment. Of course, Pluto in opposition to Mars and Uranus opposite Jupiter, will manifest as a perpetual undercurrent and clashes in some partnerships philosophy and ethos . However, there will be a huge effort to keep it together in my view.
Love this!