The Eurosceptics have swung the Italian election, where immigration and the economy were the two key issues in addition to political corruption. The two parties garnering most votes campaigned on a radical overhaul of the EU’s legally binding restrictions on public spending and low taxes. The result is being compared with Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the US; although there is no intention of leaving the EU or euro, merely subverting the EU’s fiscal policies. Germany and other northern Europeans will fiercely resist any such demands. Berlusconi and Matteo Renzi’s parties were thrashed. There will now be a protracted period of agreeing a coalition.
Since 2013 more than 600,000 migrants have travelled from Libya: unemployment is currently at 11%, with youth unemployment running above 50 per cent in one region; and 18 million people are at risk of poverty. Italy is the EU’s third largest economy but its GDP is still six per cent below its pre-Lehman peak in 2007.
The relationship charts between Italy 17 March 1861 and Italy Republic 10 June 1946 4pm Rome give no indication of an outright split. But there are signs of major tensions brewing. The EU/Italy46 looks devastated right now with tr Pluto square the composite Neptune and that runs on and off till late 2019; with bad tempered ructions in 2019 and a few uncomfortable shocks.
The EU/Italy 1861 looks more agitated this year, jolted, jangled and prone to outbursts.
It’s a tough haul ahead on the Italy 1946 chart with pressures and disappointments mounting from 2018 right through till 2021. So no easy way out of their trough. And that coincides with major pressures on the EU’s chart with Solar Arc Pluto conjunct their 2nd house Neptune in late 2019, plus tr Neptune square their Saturn at the same time for a period of great uncertainty.
Oh, Italians also know they can’t stop those boats from Libya without EU and NATO. Their Military is in a very bad shape – some might say it’s nothing new. But really, they are chronically underfunded, with one if the lowest percentages of GPD going to Military Budget in NATO. Conscription was abolished in 2004, and Military now has serious staffing concerns (also because they’ve had low birthrate since the early 1990’s). They do not have tecnology or manpower to pull out any operation in Libya.
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Somerset House, London 28 Feb 2018 John Major, that well-known election asset and wife-cheater, preaches against Brexit. John Major claimed he was ‘neither a Europhile nor a Eurosceptic’ but ‘a realist’ who opposed Brexit. ‘Of course,’ he said magnanimously, ‘the “will of the people” can’t be ignored, but Parliament has a duty also to consider the “wellbeing of the people”.’ And with that he was into the patronising cliche about ‘no one voted for higher prices’. John Major ‘I know of no precedent for any Government enacting a policy that will make both our country and our people poorer.’ I do. One was called the exchange rate mechanism and it was pursued, disastrously, by some idiot of a PM in the early 1990s simply out of dogmatic attachment to the EU Another is Blair/Milliband”s Climate Change Act and another is Cameron”s DFID 0.7% GDP and another Brown”s Gift-Aid and another ad infinitum
Also, it’s no surprise next 3 years look somewhat “confusing” astrologically (I would use 1946 chart exclusively, since that’s when The Republic was established). Despite the new electoral system aiming to reinforce electoral coaltions, The Rightwing Coalition is split. Forza Italia is much less “hardline” than Lega in most issues. Then there’s Fratelli d’Italia, a Fascist heritage party, which is however more like a Cadet Party to Forza Italia (leader Giorgia Meloni owes her career to Berlusconi). Lega has 73 Proportional seats, FI 59 seats, FdI 19 seats. I’d be surprised if an already weak Government formed by these parties lasted pass the first budget talks.
M5s is interesting, too. Last time around, the founder and leader Beppe Grillo would not have accepted Government Duty. This time, it’s seen as a possibility. And since M5s could probably lean on PD backing in many key votes, they’d probably be able carry on for a longer period. PD might prefer this too – most M5s voters are former PD affiliate voters. They would have time to regroup and try to win back votes if M5s fails.
But, it looks really panicky, overall, and there definitely is space for a New Berlusconi or even Macron type figure. M5s might mature, but their at least nominal leader Luigi Di Maio will hardly be the one to bring in that change.
The comments I’ve read on Italian Electoral results are, quite frankly, embarrashing. There is nothing ideological about this vote. It’s not about EU or Euro, it’s not about refugees either – at least to a degree one might think. People are simply fed up with EVERYBODY in politics. They do not see point in voting, because they feel nobody represents them. They were especially fed up with former-PM and majority leader Lorenzo Renzi – my leftish voting friends seemed to dislike him even more than rightish friends.
Points that prove my view: “Eurosceptic” M5 wan overwhelmingly South of Rome – their victory in Sicily was such a landslide every candidate nominated on proportional districts will get elected, and they even need to name additional representitives. Yet this area is relying heavily on EU Funding, and people know it. These people do not want out of EU.
Berlusconi’s party, Forza Italia, which is actually pro-EU, did very well in Sicilian Regional Elections just a couple of months ago. They were expected to do well in Conservative South, overall. Now, they aligned themselves with Lega Nord that’s been busy rebranding itself as an anti-immigration and anti-EU party instead of being against Southeners. Obviously people were not buying it, and would not vote for Berlusconi.
Oh, Italians also know they can’t stop those boats from Libya without EU and NATO. Their Military is in a very bad shape – some might say it’s nothing new. But really, they are chronically underfunded, with one if the lowest percentages of GPD going to Military Budget in NATO. Conscription was abolished in 2004, and Military now has serious staffing concerns (also because they’ve had low birthrate since the early 1990’s). They do not have tecnology or manpower to pull out any operation in Libya.