Bosnia – western anxiety about a Balkans flare up

Concern about the increasingly precarious situation in Bosnia has led the  USA to impose sanctions last week on the Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, accusing him of threatening to create a breakaway Serb army and undermining the country’s territorial integrity through a combination of corruption and “divisive ethno-nationalistic rhetoric.” In addition to his subversive actions, “Dodik has used his official position to accumulate personal wealth through graft, bribery, and other forms of corruption.”  The fear is that the 1995 Dayton Peace Accord, which brought an end to the savage fighting on the break up of the former Yugoslavia, doesn’t hold, risking wider regional instability.

  In December, the EU, U.S., U.K., Germany, France and Italy condemned a move by lawmakers in the Bosnian Serbs’ autonomous republic to start a process of withdrawal from key national institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, warning it threatened stability in the whole Balkan region.

  The 1995 agreement does look under severe pressure with tr Pluto moving to form a disruptive conjunction with the Uranus from this March onwards, on and off till late 2023. This follows on from the last two years of tr Pluto conjunct the Bosnia Neptune bringing high anxiety, scandal and corruption. Tr Neptune is also square the Bosnia Sagittarius Sun and Jupiter at the moment and on into 2023, which will bring disappointment and deflate high hopes. The Sagittarius Midheaven also caught the recent December Solar Eclipse for a good going crisis.

 Milorad Dodik, 12 March 1959, is a Sun Pisces with a pushily confident Pluto square Jupiter, trine Saturn and sextile Neptune – tough and ambitious. He’ll be determined this month with tr Pluto conjunct his Sun/Jupiter midpoint but also less bullish than he sounds with tr Neptune conjunct his Sun; and much worse tr Neptune conjunct his calamitous Mars/Saturn midpoint from this May onwards. August to early December will see him steam-rollering ahead.

From previous post: November 2 2021

Bosnia could be in imminent danger of breaking apart as Serb separatists carry out their threat to recreate their own army. The international representative warned that the country was facing “the greatest existential threat of the postwar period”. Recent Bosnian Serb police “counter-terrorist” exercises last month were, he said “tantamount to secession without proclaiming it.” There is a “very real” prospect of a return to conflict, he said. With Russia and Serbia supporting the breakaway factions.

  The Dayton Agreement which brought an end to the bloody Bosnia War of the early 1990s has been criticized for creating an ineffective and unwieldy political structure, with the  single sovereign state known as Bosnia and Herzegovina composed of two parts, a largely Serb-populated area and another mainly Croat-Bosniak-populated one.

  The Bosnia independence chart, 3 March 1992, is exhibiting more than the usual degree of jitters with the tr Uranus square tr Saturn hitting on the Mars, Saturn, Venus in Aquarius this year and next.  With the New Year to mid February 2022 especially disruptive and explosive as tr Uranus squares the Mars. The discouraging Solar Arc Saturn conjunct the Sun also hits exact in six months; with collisions and shocks in 2024 as the Solar Arc Mars is conjunct the Sun. In 2023 there is rebellious and turbulent tr Uranus opposition Pluto.

   The treaty which ended the war, signed in Paris on 14 December 1995 at 11.48am, shows disappointment writ large with tr Neptune square the Sun Jupiter over the next three years and tr Pluto in an upsetting conjunction to the Uranus through 2022/23. So the predictions may not be far off the mark.