Afghanistan, the “graveyard of empires” is taking another lurch with the US withdrawal. The Taliban, removed from power in 2001, now controls half the country causing alarm in China and Russia. Motives are mixed since neither of the eastern superpowers want an upsurge in Islamic terrorism, or an outflow of narcotics or a surge of refugees across their borders and have an eye to future trade possibilities. China wants access to Afghanistan’s reserves of rare earths and precious metals, and Pakistan backed by China seeks to block Indian influence. Russia fears a power vacuum on its southern doorstep as well as all the above
All are agreed including the west that internal stability is a priority but it will be difficult for any of the main Asian players to avoid getting dragged into domestic Afghan conflicts in the face of a civil war that could threaten the region.
Modern Afghanistan, 19 August 1919 12 am Kabul, has a long and turbulent history stretching back 50,000 years with constant invasions since recorded history took note – the ancient Greeks, Alexander the Great, the Mongols, the Mughals, the British, the Soviet Union and after 9/11 the USA. Nowadays the country is deemed to have high levels of terrorism, poverty, child malnutrition, and corruption.
The 1919 chart has a Fixed Grand Square giving it extraordinary endurance and resistance to change. But since it involves a prominent Uranus on the Midheaven opposition the Leo Sun and Saturn in Virgo square a Taurus Moon opposition a Scorpio North Node the main constant is rolling upheavals. The Afghan Uranus is further highlighted being on the focal point of a Yod giving a wilful, rebellious, contrary national temperament, which can breed lawlessness and intolerance.
There’s nothing to suggest the relentless turmoil of Afghanistan’s history will calm down anytime soon. Tr Pluto will be in a high-risk, brutal, frustrating opposition to the Afghanistan Mars from early 2022 to late 2023; and then tr Uranus will rattle its way round the Fixed Grand Cross from 2023 first in square to Mercury, then the Sun, conjunct the Moon in 2024 and square Uranus in 2025 – all of which will be jolting, jangling and upsetting.
This November’s Lunar Eclipse in Taurus will be exactly conjunct the Afghan Moon which will test the country’s foundations and bring back the past, as well as unsettling the population and triggering the Afghan North Node in Scorpio – none of which looks helpful.
Relations between Russia and Afghanistan will be strained if the relationship chart is anything to go by until 2024 though there may be a re-set in 2023 which could go either way. Relations with China are likely to move into a radically new phase from now onwards with tr Uranus squaring the composite Pluto, but it will be stop start into 2022; with nothing much thereafter until after mid decade when it deteriorates.
See previous posts: April 14 2021
On the 2001 War – post March 1 2020.